Poll: Suburbanites split between Obama and Romney, president has edge among ‘empty nesters’

Suburbia hasn’t been spared the political split that has the nation in a gridlock with less than a week before the election.

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are on the same block with suburban voters, tied with 48 percent of likely voters each, according to a National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. Analysis of a Pew Research Center poll by American University and Patchwork Nation shows Obama has a one point lead in suburbia overall.

Although Romney has a 5-point lead among suburban independents at 50 percent to Obama’s 45 percent. It’s different turf in urban communities, where Obama is leading 55-39 percent among independents.

The president has a slight edge with suburban undecideds, the Hofstra University study shows.

About 11 percent of those living in hamlet neighborhoods are swing voters, a sizable chunk that could make or break either candidate’s success with the demographic. Five percent lean toward Obama compared to Romney’s three percent.

The monied ‘burbs, highly educated and wealthier than the national average, house a large percentage of the population and are crucial come Tuesday. The communities strongly favored Obama during the 2008 campaign, according to Patchwork Nation data.

But it’s been a hard four years for suburbanites. Romney managed to peel away 14 percent of residents who voted for Obama in 2008, according to the Hofstra University study. Only four percent of John McCain backers now are supporting the president.

The president also might have an advantage among “emptying nest” counties, enclaves to the elderly and baby boomers, according to the American University and Patchwork Nation analysis.

They flocked to President George Bush in 2004, favoring him 56 percent to John Kerry’s 43 percent. This time around it’s another story. It’s tighter, but Obama has an 11 point edge with 52 percent compared to Romney’s 41 percent.

Many havens for retirees and the elderly are in swing states, key in winning a tight election where leads are so close. Emptying nest counties make up 11 percent of the Ohio population, 20 percent of Wisconsin’s and 32 percent of Iowa’s.