Archive for November 4th, 2012

The ten best and ten worst political campaigns of 2012

Sunday, November 4, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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Best campaigns

1. Ted Cruz, Republican, U.S. Senate, Texas

The former Texas solicitor general came out of nowhere to defeat a wealthy, well-known Republican rival, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, in the GOP Senate runoff. Among the factors behind Cruz’s win: effective use of social media, an ability to build a grassroots organization, a clear message of liberty and fiscal responsibility, and some help from Tea Party loyalists. All in all, Cruz received more bang for his political bucks than any other candidate in the nation this year.

2. Mazie Hirono, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Hawaii

Ten years ago, Republican Linda Lingle narrowly defeated Hawaii Lt. Gov. Mazie Hirono in a battle to become the first female governor in Hawaii’s history. Their rematch took a decade, but this time Hirono is leading Lingle by double digits. Hirono, now a congresswoman, raised a lot of money all over the country (she was the top out-of-state recipient of Texas Democratic contributions) and spent it wisely. It doesn’t hurt that native son Barack Obama is leading Mitt Romney by more than 30 percentage points here.

3. Sen. Orrin Hatch, Republican, U.S. Senate, Utah

Utah’s senior senator watched in horror two years ago when his conservative partner in Washington, Utah Sen. Bob Bennett, was beaten by two Tea Party challengers in his bid for renomination. Hatch made sure it didn’t happen again. He underscored his conservative positions, worked tirelessly to communicate with conservative Republicans, and spent a boatload of money. The result: a landslide renomination victory and a  general election landslide.

4. Denny Rehberg, Republican, U.S. Senate, Montana

Republicans figured that they could reclaim the Montana Senate seat they lost six years ago if they just didn’t make any mistakes. Rep. Denny Rehberg, the GOP nominee, hasn’t. His disciplined campaign, aided by conservative Super PAC spending, has made an effective argument for change.

5. Sen. Jon Tester, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Montana

The incumbent Democrat would be running well behind if he weren’t running such a good campaign. Montana is a solid Romney state, but freshman Tester remains well-liked. And nobody will outwork him.

6. Linda McMahon, Republican, U.S. Senate, Connecticut

McMahon’s 2010 Senate candidacy fell far short against a well-known Connecticut political veteran, Attorney General Richard Blumenthal. This year, McMahon’s millions made her the better-known nominee against Democratic congressman Patrick Murphy. McMahon’s message is clearer and her campaign has been sharp and disciplined. But Connecticut is a Democratic state, so she’s still the underdog.

7. Mia Love, Republican, U.S. House, Utah

Mia Love is poised to make history. If she maintains her lead over incumbent Democrat Jim Matheson, she would become the first Utah woman and the first African American Mormon elected to Congress. Charismatic and consistently conservative, the small-town mayor emerged as a national star during the Republican National Convention, where she delivered a powerful speech to cheering delegates. It doesn’t hurt that Romney could carry Utah by more than 40 percentage points.

8. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, Democrat, U.S. Senate, New York

Hillary Clinton’s replacement in the Senate never stopped running after her 2010 special election win. She had money and organization — and now name-recognition and a record. She ran such a good campaign that she’s been able to spend time working for other Democratic women seeking Senate seats.

9. Sen. Sherrod Brown, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Ohio

Outside groups have spent more money to defeat Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown than any other congressional incumbent. For good reason: The populist lawmaker has been an articulate critic of Big Business, Wall Street and corporate outlaws. But Brown has effectively turned the tables on his expensive enemies, portraying himself as the fighter for average Ohioans against entrenched interests.

10. Heidi Heitkamp, Democrat, U.S. Senate, North Dakota

This race wasn’t supposed to be close. Republicans were expected to easily win the seat being surrendered by retiring Democratic Sen. Byron Dorgan. But North Dakota’s former attorney general — who is as comfortable as a cowgirl as a courtroom lawyer — has stressed her independence from Obama, who is very unpopular in this Republican-leaning state. Republican Rick Berg has opened up a lead in recent weeks, but it’s taken an exceptional campaign to make it this competitive.

Worst campaigns

1. Rick Perry, Republican, President

The Texas governor entered the race atop the presidential polls. He was a well-funded, hard-charging conservative who — it was thought — could unite the GOP’s social conservative and establishment wings. Three months later, his campaign had collapsed amid bad debate performances and staff in-fighting. Some longtime pundits declared it was the worst major presidential campaign they’d ever seen.

2. Michele Bachmann, Republican, President

The Minnesota congresswoman was a presidential frontrunner … for about a week. But her campaign went downhill quickly after she claimed that a woman told her that an anti-cancer vaccine had caused brain damage. She soon became the butt of late-night comics’ jokes following a string of factual errors including the time she confused movie he-man John Wayne with mass murderer John Wayne Gacy. By the time Herman Cain got his 15 minutes of fame, Bachmann was toast.

3. Mark Clayton, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Tennessee

The Washington Post said of the conspiracy theorist who ended up the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Tennessee, “This may be America’s worst candidate.” He proudly is running as a loner — “Jesus did not have a campaign staff,” Mark Clayton has said — and he’s even been disavowed by his own party. It’s good that he has flooring installation skills. He sure won’t end up in the Senate.

4. Richard Mourdock, Republican, U.S. Senate, Indiana

A few months ago, this perennial candidate was the toast of the Tea Party, having knocked off veteran Indiana Sen. Richard Lugar in the Republican primary. But a funny thing happened on the way to the Senate. The more Mourdock talked, the closer his race against Democrat Joe Donnelly became. After he said in a debate that pregnancies resulting from rape are “something God intended to happen,” he cratered in the polls. A likely victory has become an unmitigated disaster.

5. Todd Akin, Republican, U.S. Senate, Missouri

At the beginning of the year, Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill was billed as the most endangered Democratic incumbent in the nation. That was before far-right congressman Todd Akin won the Republican nomination over two mainstream conservatives and uttered his now-infamous “legitimate rape” comment. Mitt Romney asked him to withdraw from the race, and top congressional Republicans distanced themselves from their Missouri nominee. But polls show Akin still has a fighting chance to topple McCaskill.

6. Rep. Joe Walsh, Republican, U.S. House, Illinois

This Tea Party freshman from suburban Chicago is a human gaffe machine, some with racial overtones. He said Democrats “want Hispanics to be dependent upon government, just like they got African-Americans dependent upon government.” He says his opponent, Tammy Duckworth, an Iraq war veteran and double amputee, uses her military service as “a political ploy.” He suggested that pregnancies caused by rape could not jeopardize the life of the woman. And that’s just the beginning. Only a massive cash infusion by conservative Super PACs might be able to rescue the miscue-prone incumbent.

7. Sen. Bob Casey, Democrat, U.S. Senate, Pennsylvania

After Republicans nominated a political unknown named Smith, the Pundit Elite declared the Pennsylvania Senate election over. But Mr. Smith might end up coming to Washington. Tom Smith, a rich Republican businessman from coal country, has spent millions of his personal fortune on TV ads. Caught by surprise, freshman Sen. Bob Casey had to scramble. Even if he manages to rebound, it won’t be anything like his 20-point trouncing of Republican incumbent Rick Santorum six years ago.

8. Wendy Long, Republican, U.S. Senate, New York

Can you name the Republican Party’s nominee for the U.S. Senate in New York? If you can’t, you’re in the majority. The election is upon us and Wendy Long, the conservative activist who is challenging Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, remains largely unknown, severely underfunded and completely out of the news. Where have you gone Al D’Amato?

9. Rep. Pete Stark, Democrat, U.S. House, California

California congressman Pete Stark seems to be doing everything humanly possible to lose the seat he has held for 39 years. The 81-year-old ultraliberal represents a solidly Democratic district, but his opponent in California’s new multiparty primary system is a fellow Democrat, Eric Swalwell, a local city council member who has been alive for fewer years (31) than Stark has served in Washington. Stark had not responded well to the pressure. As our San Francisco Chronicle colleague Carla Marinucci wrote recently:

In the latest episode raising questions about the erratic behavior of California’s longest standing Congressman, a former California State Assembly Majority leader said Tuesday that East Bay Democratic Rep. Pete Stark erupted in an angry tirade — questioning his sanity, threatening his livelihood and even vowing to call social workers to check on his kids — after he informed Stark he would endorse his opponent in the November general election.

Voters in the district have a stark choice on Tuesday.

10. Pete Hoekstra, Republican, U.S. Senate, Michigan

Former congressman Pete Hoekstra, who lost the 2010 Republican primary for governor, got off to a bad start in his 2012 Senate race when he purchased a TV ad on Super Bowl Sunday that was roundly condemned for its racist content. In the commercial, an Asian-American actress biked alongside rice paddies and then, in broken English, thanked Michigan’s Democratic senator, Debbie Stabenow, whom she called “Debbie Spend It Now,” for borrowing money from “us” (China) to finance the U.S. national debt. After a national backlash, actress Lisa Chan apologized. Hoekstra did not. He dropped in the polls and, despite a late-in-the-race tightening, fell out of contention.

Here’s the controversial ad:

And here’s one of the many parodies that went viral:

The ten keys to winning the 2012 presidential election

Sunday, November 4, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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The Obama and Romney campaigns don’t agree on much, but they agree on this: The presidential election is tight.

Very tight.

“It is a close race, as we always thought it would be,” said Romney senior strategist Russ Schriefer.

“What’s remarkable is how consistent this race has been,” said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

With Obama leading by an average of one-tenth of one percentage point in the last ten national polls, either candidate could eke out a win. Here is a look at ten factors that could decide whether the incumbent Democrat or his Republican challenger emerges victorious on Nov. 6.

1. Flohiva

Three states are must-win for Mitt Romney: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. If he wins all three, there is a clear path to victory. If he loses Florida, it’s “game over.” If he fails in either Ohio or Virginia, he’ll need to compensate by pulling an upset in a state where Obama current leads: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota. If he loses both Ohio and Virginia, it’s Obama’s election. The latest polls show Romney running slightly behind in Ohio, slightly ahead in Florida and Virginia.

2. Enthusiasm

Romney fans rally in Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The presidential election will be decided by who decides to show up at the polls and who doesn’t. Young voters are overwhelmingly for Obama but are less enthusiastic than four years ago. Obama has a lead of about 50 percentage points among Latinos and 90 points among African Americans. But a drop in their turnout from 2008 levels could cost Obama dearly in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. Likewise, Romney must generate a large turnout among anti-Obama social conservatives and libertarian-leaning supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul. A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll released Thursday showed the two candidates almost equally effective at reaching voters: In the eight most hotly contested states, the poll found, 51 percent of likely voters have been contacted by the Obama campaign, 45 percent by Romney’s. “It’s all a question of mobilization,” said Ron Schurin, a political scientist at the University of Connecticut.

3. The Sandy factor

It’s hard to predict how Superstorm Sandy could alter the dynamics of the presidential race. The Post/ABC poll found that 79 percent of all Americans — and more than four in five independents — give Obama “excellent” or “good” marks for his response to the massive storm. In Sandy’s aftermath, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a fiscally conservative independent, endorsed the president, citing concern about Republican skepticism about climate change. The first post-storm polls showed little change in voter preferences. But Romney led in just two of the ten most recent national polls, while he led in six of ten taking just before the storm.

4. Swing state suburbs

This election could be decided by voters in the suburbs of Denver, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Columbus, Tampa and Orlando. All six areas are up for grabs, but polls show Romney is five percentage points ahead of Obama among suburban independents, according to a survey released Friday by Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. The poll shows that 14 percent of Obama’s 2008 suburban supporters have defected to Romney, while just 4 percent of McCain backers have switched to Obama. The president can’t win Virginia without a massive majority in Washington’s suburbs.

5. Independent voters

Romney surged among independent voters after the first presidential debate in Denver, based on “a move toward Romney among lower-income white independents and among independent men,” said ABC News polling analyst Gary Langer. “Additionally, more conservative independents say they’ll vote, and prefer Romney.” Timothy M. Hagle, a University of Iowa political scientist, said the Obama campaign has focused more on mobilizing his core supporters than reaching out to economically distressed independents. “Independents likely care more about the economy and jobs than Big Bird and ‘binders of women,’” he said. Post-Sandy polling showed sharp movement back toward Obama among highly educated independents.

6. Gender politics

Four years ago, Obama led Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points among women and 1 point among men. Polling in the 2012 election shows a similar gender gap — 13 points instead of 14 — but Obama is doing worse among both men and women. The latest Pew Research Center poll shows Obama leading by 6 points among women and trailing by 7 points among men. White men are one of Romney’s strongest groups, giving the former Massachusetts governor a 60 percent to 35 percent edge. Among women, Obama does best among minorities, the unmarried and college graduates. Still up for grabs: suburban women, independents, non-college-educated women and rural women.

7. Social media skills

Obama had a huge advantage over John McCain in social media four years ago and used it to mobilize his supporters and maximize turnout. Most social media experts say the Democratic incumbent still has an edge, but the Republican nominee has closed the social media gap significantly and has developed a large group of highly engaged followers.

8. Message discipline

In the final days of the campaign, it’s important for both candidates to avoid distractions and to stick to their message. Romney, after struggling for two months, has embraced a clear theme: “Big change.” Neither candidate wants to lose a day by playing defense. That’s what happened to George W. Bush in 2000, when old drunk-driving allegations were aired the weekend before the election.

9. The third-party factor

There’s no Ralph Nader this year. But in Virginia, where the race is dead-even, two third-party candidates have been registering 1 percent or more in the polls: Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor, and anti-immigrant independent Virgil Goode, a former Virginia congressman. Both of them take more votes from Romney than from Obama. Other swing states where Johnson could hurt Romney: Colorado, Nevada and live-free-or-die New Hampshire.

10. A major, major gaffe

We’re not talking run-of-the-mill Joe Biden tongue twister. We’re talking “47 percent” or “clinging to guns and Bibles” here. “Certainly one wants to avoid a major blunder at this point,” said Juan Carlos Huerta, a professor of political science at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi. “That can come out and really damage a candidate at this time, especially when it’s this close.”

From abortion to pot, the ten most important ballot issues of 2012 election

Sunday, November 4, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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By KYLE CAMPBELL
Hearst Washington Bureau

Along with deciding the future of the presidency and the makeup of both houses in Congress, voters in some states will have the ability to act as lawmakers themselves during next week’s election.

Thirty-eight states have ballot measures that will be in play on Nov. 6 and though many deal with issues such as taxes and administrative issues, other states will decide on hot-button national topics.

Here are 10 ballot measure issues to look out for during this election season.

1. States reacting to ‘Obamacare’

Six states have ballot measures dealing with health care, likely a response to the passage and Supreme Court affirmation of the Affordable Care Act. Alabama, Florida, Missouri, Montana and Wyoming all have proposals countering the act known as Obamacare. Likewise, Louisiana has a proposal to protect the state Medicaid trust fund for the elderly from budget cuts. Arizona has a pending amendment that would allow voters to reject federal actions, such as an individual mandate on health insurance, via referendum.

2. Marijuana: Legalize it?

Washington, Oregon and Colorado all have proposed amendments to make marijuana legal for recreational use. All three states currently allow for the use of cannabis for medical purposes and Colorado and Oregon both have removed jail time for possessing small amounts of marijuana. Massachusetts and Arkansas have proposed amendments to allow marijuana use for medicinal purposes, which could add them to the other 17 states that allow the use of medical marijuana. Meanwhile Montana is seeking to repeal its medical marijuana law in exchange for a new system.

3. Same-sex marriage

Maine voters will have the opportunity to overturn the state’s ban on gay marriage. Maine has a referendum that would allow gay couple to obtain a civil marriage license and Washington has a similar referendum addressing gay marriage. Maryland has a question on its ballot to approve civil marriage licenses for gays. Minnesota has a proposed amendment banning gay marriage.

4. Swing states topics

All but four swing states (North Carolina, Iowa, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania) will have initiatives on their ballots on Nov. 6, but some could prove to be more influential in motivating voter turnout. As previously stated, Colorado has proposed amendments to legalize marijuana for recreational use, but it also has an amendment to prohibit corporate contributions and expenditures in elections, both of which could draw liberal voters.

Florida has proposed amendments to prevent penalties for not purchasing health care, to prevent public funding for abortions and to repeal the ban on public dollars for religious funding, appealing to Christian conservatives.

New Hampshire has a proposed amendment banning increases on income tax, which also could appeal to conservative voters.

5. Three strikes, you’re out

California has a proposal to modify it’s “Three Strikes” policy which requires repeat criminals to serve 25-years to life in prison after their third conviction. The initiative calls for the policy to be implemented only on criminals that have committed a “violent or serious” crime or for those who are previously convicted of rape, murder or child molestation.

California also has a measure calling for the end of the death penalty.

6. Sticking to their guns

A handful of solidly red states are attempting to bolster their second amendment rights through the use of ballot measures. Idaho, Kentucky, Louisiana, Nebraska and Wyoming all have amendments solidifying hunting and fishing rights and/or gun rights.

7. Issues of race and immigration

The topics of race and immigration have manifested in a variety of ways on ballots across the country, some of which touch on the issues of immigration and voter identification that have been brought up time and again during the presidential campaign.

Maryland has a proposal to allow illegal immigrants to be charge in-state tuition for public universities.

Montana has a proposal that would require citizens to show proof of citizenship when seeking state services and Minnesota has a proposed voter identification law.

Oklahoma has a proposal to ban affirmative action in the state thus prohibiting special treatment based on race or sex in public employment, education and contracts.

8. Rules for redistricting

Three states are re-examining their redrawn congressional districts that were passed by their respective state legislatures after the 2010 Census report. California and Ohio are looking at the option outside groups drawing the new districts.

California already has this system and made use of it last year, the ballot measure is essentially asking voters if they want this format to stay intact. Meanwhile, Ohio voters will decide if they want the state to set up citizen’s commission to draw the districts.

Maryland voters will have the chance to approve or disapprove of their state’s redistricting plan.

9. Death with dignity

Massachusetts has a proposal to allow terminally ill patients to request their doctors to administer lethal drugs. The patient must be a mentally competent adult with a prognoses of six months or fewer to live by two doctors. Patients must make the request twice verbally and once through writing before the lethal medicine can be administered.

This is the eighth time a state has had an initiative for assisted suicide. Voters were in favor of death with dignity three out of the previous seven times.

10. Consent for abortion

Women’s health reproductive health issues have been another common theme in campaigns across the nation. Along with Florida’s proposal to ban the use of public dollars for abortions, Montana has a proposal that would require parental or legal guardian notification before girls under 16 can an abortion.

This is the tenth time a state has proposed a law such as this. Four out of the previous nine initiatives were passed.