The ten keys to winning the 2012 presidential election

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The Obama and Romney campaigns don’t agree on much, but they agree on this: The presidential election is tight.

Very tight.

“It is a close race, as we always thought it would be,” said Romney senior strategist Russ Schriefer.

“What’s remarkable is how consistent this race has been,” said Obama campaign manager Jim Messina.

With Obama leading by an average of one-tenth of one percentage point in the last ten national polls, either candidate could eke out a win. Here is a look at ten factors that could decide whether the incumbent Democrat or his Republican challenger emerges victorious on Nov. 6.

1. Flohiva

Three states are must-win for Mitt Romney: Florida, Ohio and Virginia. If he wins all three, there is a clear path to victory. If he loses Florida, it’s “game over.” If he fails in either Ohio or Virginia, he’ll need to compensate by pulling an upset in a state where Obama current leads: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota. If he loses both Ohio and Virginia, it’s Obama’s election. The latest polls show Romney running slightly behind in Ohio, slightly ahead in Florida and Virginia.

2. Enthusiasm

Romney fans rally in Nevada. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)

The presidential election will be decided by who decides to show up at the polls and who doesn’t. Young voters are overwhelmingly for Obama but are less enthusiastic than four years ago. Obama has a lead of about 50 percentage points among Latinos and 90 points among African Americans. But a drop in their turnout from 2008 levels could cost Obama dearly in Florida, Virginia, Ohio, Colorado and Nevada. Likewise, Romney must generate a large turnout among anti-Obama social conservatives and libertarian-leaning supporters of Texas Rep. Ron Paul. A Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll released Thursday showed the two candidates almost equally effective at reaching voters: In the eight most hotly contested states, the poll found, 51 percent of likely voters have been contacted by the Obama campaign, 45 percent by Romney’s. “It’s all a question of mobilization,” said Ron Schurin, a political scientist at the University of Connecticut.

3. The Sandy factor

It’s hard to predict how Superstorm Sandy could alter the dynamics of the presidential race. The Post/ABC poll found that 79 percent of all Americans — and more than four in five independents — give Obama “excellent” or “good” marks for his response to the massive storm. In Sandy’s aftermath, New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, a fiscally conservative independent, endorsed the president, citing concern about Republican skepticism about climate change. The first post-storm polls showed little change in voter preferences. But Romney led in just two of the ten most recent national polls, while he led in six of ten taking just before the storm.

4. Swing state suburbs

This election could be decided by voters in the suburbs of Denver, Las Vegas, Cleveland, Columbus, Tampa and Orlando. All six areas are up for grabs, but polls show Romney is five percentage points ahead of Obama among suburban independents, according to a survey released Friday by Hofstra University’s National Center for Suburban Studies. The poll shows that 14 percent of Obama’s 2008 suburban supporters have defected to Romney, while just 4 percent of McCain backers have switched to Obama. The president can’t win Virginia without a massive majority in Washington’s suburbs.

5. Independent voters

Romney surged among independent voters after the first presidential debate in Denver, based on “a move toward Romney among lower-income white independents and among independent men,” said ABC News polling analyst Gary Langer. “Additionally, more conservative independents say they’ll vote, and prefer Romney.” Timothy M. Hagle, a University of Iowa political scientist, said the Obama campaign has focused more on mobilizing his core supporters than reaching out to economically distressed independents. “Independents likely care more about the economy and jobs than Big Bird and ‘binders of women,’” he said. Post-Sandy polling showed sharp movement back toward Obama among highly educated independents.

6. Gender politics

Four years ago, Obama led Republican John McCain by 13 percentage points among women and 1 point among men. Polling in the 2012 election shows a similar gender gap — 13 points instead of 14 — but Obama is doing worse among both men and women. The latest Pew Research Center poll shows Obama leading by 6 points among women and trailing by 7 points among men. White men are one of Romney’s strongest groups, giving the former Massachusetts governor a 60 percent to 35 percent edge. Among women, Obama does best among minorities, the unmarried and college graduates. Still up for grabs: suburban women, independents, non-college-educated women and rural women.

7. Social media skills

Obama had a huge advantage over John McCain in social media four years ago and used it to mobilize his supporters and maximize turnout. Most social media experts say the Democratic incumbent still has an edge, but the Republican nominee has closed the social media gap significantly and has developed a large group of highly engaged followers.

8. Message discipline

In the final days of the campaign, it’s important for both candidates to avoid distractions and to stick to their message. Romney, after struggling for two months, has embraced a clear theme: “Big change.” Neither candidate wants to lose a day by playing defense. That’s what happened to George W. Bush in 2000, when old drunk-driving allegations were aired the weekend before the election.

9. The third-party factor

There’s no Ralph Nader this year. But in Virginia, where the race is dead-even, two third-party candidates have been registering 1 percent or more in the polls: Libertarian Gary Johnson, the former New Mexico governor, and anti-immigrant independent Virgil Goode, a former Virginia congressman. Both of them take more votes from Romney than from Obama. Other swing states where Johnson could hurt Romney: Colorado, Nevada and live-free-or-die New Hampshire.

10. A major, major gaffe

We’re not talking run-of-the-mill Joe Biden tongue twister. We’re talking “47 percent” or “clinging to guns and Bibles” here. “Certainly one wants to avoid a major blunder at this point,” said Juan Carlos Huerta, a professor of political science at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi. “That can come out and really damage a candidate at this time, especially when it’s this close.”