What if Nate Silver is wrong? (VIDEO)

By now, most liberals have checked polling analyst Nate Silver’s blog at least twice Tuesday: It says President Obama’s chance of winning re-election is 90.1 percent.

Whaaaaaaa? We know Nate is merely assigning a numerical expression on his freshly crunched numbers, but the political cynic in us says, c’mon. Ninety-one percent? That’s only slightly worse than the chances of the sun rising Wednesday.

We’re thinking about the the liberal bed-wetters we wrote about a while back who treat Nate as the oracle. They check him out several times a day — just for reassurance. And true, he did accurately call 49 of 50 states in the 2008 election (missing only Indiana, which was decided by 1 percentage point.) But he’s called just ONE presidential election, right?

Sure, David and David scored a hit with “Welcome to the Boomtown” in 1986, but after that….? If Nate’s wrong, a lot of bedwetters are heading for the bridge.

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Howard Fineman in the HuffPo called this the “Nate Silver Election.” He calls Silver “brilliant.” But ….

“He was the symbol and bane. His odds-making in the New York Times –- a kind of racing tip sheet that the Times doesn’t even feature in the sports pages –- is the ultimate reductio ad absurdum of horse race coverage.”

Like me, Howard is a Pittsburgh guy. And I’m hoping and praying that’s the last time either of us uses the phrase, “reductio ad absurdum.” Nate Silver says there’s a 90.1 percent chance of that happening.

As Nate told Politico recently, predictions based on stats do not guarantee a win:

“If the Giants lead the Redskins 24-21 in the fourth quarter, it’s a close game that either team could win. But it’s also not a “toss-up”: The Giants are favored. It’s the same principle here: Obama is ahead in the polling averages in states like Ohio that would suffice for him to win the Electoral College. Hence, he’s the favorite,” Silver told POLITICO.

Here’s Nate’s take on Election Day:

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

And here’s Nate talking to Stephen Colbert Monday night: