Archive for November 7th, 2012

The Tweetelection: Obama had more than just the ground game in his favor

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:jana.kasperka@chron.com (Jana Kasperkevic)
Comment
Comments

|
|

President Barack Obama might have won yesterday’s election thanks to his ground game, but the 44th president also dominated the race on social media.

The Tweetelection

As the clocks announced the beginning of Nov. 6,  the worldwide promoted trend on Twitter for the day became #VoteObama. Not only did Obama for America purchase the worldwide trending topic for the day, but they paid to have a variety of their tweets promoted throughout the day.

As early as 5:30 a.m. ET, before many of the polls opened, the campaign tweeted out a link that enable @BarackObama Twitter followers to locate their polling station. The tweet was promoted and for most of the day appeared as the top tweet on the account’s Twitter feed. Later on in the day, as lines at polling places became long and many were concerned about voters becoming impatient and tired, the campaign tweeted: “If you’re in line when the polls close, stay in line to vote. It could help make the difference.”

The campaign also promoted this tweet making it appear on their followers’ feeds, various searches and the top of @BarackObama‘s account.

While Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney did not seem to promote tweets from his feed and had not purchased trending topics on Nov. 6, he also tweeted a link containing information regarding locating one’s polling station to his followers.

The last tweet to be promoted by @BarackObama‘s campaign this election day was the tweet sent out when the networks called the election in his favor. Within minutes, this tweet became the most re-tweeted tweet by President Obama.

The tweet contained a photo of President Barack Obama embracing his wife Michelle Obama with simple “Four More Years.” Within two hours, the photo was re-tweeted 456,845 times and shared on Facebook 207,348 times.

A photo shared by Obama for America on Twitter and Facebook. (Jana Kasperkevic/Houston Chronicle)

President Obama’s re-election was also the most tweeted moment of the 2012 election, reaching 327,453 tweets per minute at 11:19 p.m. ET, reported Twitter. About 31 million election-related tweets were sent that day.

How It Played:

The popular vote might have been close, but the vote on social media was overwhelmingly in Obama’s favor. Having tracked both Romney’s and Obama’s followers on Facebook, Twitter and Google plus, we were able to see Obama surge forward and leave the Republican nominee behind in the dust.

Not only had Obama’s campaign built a loyal core of followers on social media over the 2008 campaign as well as the first term of his presidency, but they have been making significant strides in adding to it throughout this campaign season. Not only did Obama start election day with 20 million more Twitter followers, but while Mitt Romney was only able to gain 44,550 new Twitter followers, Obama added more than a quarter million of new followers to his already high numbers.

Similar trends emerged on Facebook and Google Plus, as can be seen in the graphic below:

(Jana Kasperkevic/Houston Chronicle)

In an interesting turn of events, after the networks called the election for President Obama, Romney actually began to lose followers on Facebook. At 11: 30 p.m. ET on Nov 6., the number of his Facebook followers was 12,135,972. By 2:00 a.m. ET on Nov. 7, that number dropped to 12,131,785 and by 6 p.m. ET on Nov. 7, it was 12,103,112 with Romney having lost over 30,000 followers.

On Twitter, Romney’s number of followers continued to climb through Nov. 7.

Mitt Romney has changed his relationship status

In a world where break ups and heartbreaks as well as upcoming nuptials and other happy occasions are announced on a variety of social media platforms, Mitt Romney has only admitted to his heartbreak on Facebook.

His new cover photo features him on the stage as he delivers his concession speech and the last post is a photo with signed “Thank You.”

His Google Plus and Twitter accounts, on the other hand, remain silent.

Youth vote amplified through buzz on Facebook

According to Facebook, the 2012 election received a record breaking level of buzz. On a 10-point scale, it scored 9.27. The 2008 presidential election scored an 8.95.

This is due to the younger voters on Facebook, who were more engaged on Nov. 6 than throughout the campaign season. Older Facebook users were responsible for majority of the buzz created during the national political conventions and the debates. The top scores for buzz during Nov. 6 were earned by men aged 25 to 34, at 9.47, and women aged 25 to 34, at 9.27.

Individually, both Obama and Romney had the most buzz among both men and women aged 18 to 24. The two candidates beat their highest scores earned during the first presidential debate – Obama went up a full point from 7.41 to 8.41 while Romney earned just half a point, going from 7.38 to 7.83.

“There were 71.7 million election-related mentions across Facebook posts and comments in the United States on Election Day,” reported Facebook. “There were 88.7 million mentions across Facebook posts and comments globally.”

What the Trend

Yesterday’s election might not have given rise to any of those trends that we have become so fond of such as “Binders full women,” “Big Bird” or “Horses and bayonets,” but the day warranted its own set of trends. Most notably, “If Romney” trended throughout the day in various areas implying that number of people were speculating on the possible results and the aftermath.

Additional, the most frequent trending topic was “I Voted” as many Twitter users proudly announced that they have done their civic duty.

Here are the topics that trended as the networks called the election for President Obama:

In the hours that followed, the most notable Twitter trend was “Bout Damn Time,” which at first was aimed at Romney as the nation awaited his concession speech. Later on, the same trend was aimed at President Obama as his tired supporters stayed up to see him deliver his victory speech.

Here are the topics that trended during President Obama’s victory speech:

Of course, it wouldn’t be a proper political event if we did not come away with at least one meme/gif. And we present you with the flaglady — an Obama supporter, who had a flag stuck in her hair as Obama delivered his victory speech.

(Michael Hayes/Buzzfeed)

Are you sure you want to share that?

As previously mentioned “I Voted” was a frequently tweeted phrase yesterday. Often times, the tweets containing these words would accompany a photo. Sometimes this would be a photo of an “I Voted” sticker, like this:

John Vandermark wears his ” I Voted” sticker after voting on primary day as Michigan heads to the polls at Royal Oak Farmers Market on February 28, 2012 in Royal Oak, Michigan. Voters head to the polls as the Republican party continues the process of deciding who will be their general election candidate against President Barack Obama. (Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

However, a new trend emerged across variety of social media platforms as voters began to share photos snapped of their ballots and voting machines inside of the voting booth.

As the Instagram, Twitter and Facebook became flooded by photos of ballots, Gizmodo reported that taking such photos is actually a misdemeanor in number of states, including New York. In Texas, recording devices are prohibited within 100 feet of a voting station.

So next time you want to tell everyone that you voted, snapping a photo of that “I Voted” sticker might be safer bet.

Tea party bashes Romney, vows comeback

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
Comment
Comments

|
|

The tea party was in finger-pointing mode Wednesday, and the digits weren’t aimed at President Barack Obama.

Tea partiers placed the blame of the “epic election failure of 2012″ squarely on Mitt Romney and the Republican establishment during a press conference at the National Press Club.

“What we got was a weak, moderate candidate hand-picked by the Beltway elites and country club establishment wing of the Republican Party,” Tea Party Patriots national coordinator Jenny Beth Martin said. ”The presidential loss is unequivocally on them.”

Romney’s flaws? The list went on and on. Martin said that if candidates don’t start playing the game Constitution-style, it won’t be pretty for the GOP.

Martin and representatives from the Susan B. Anthony List, Americans for Tax Reform and The Paul Revere Project, among others, warned future Republican presidential and congressional hopefuls will be doomed if they don’t stick to traditional conservative values and small-government ideals.

Even if the former Massachusetts governor was conservative enough for tea partiers, his Etch-a-Sketch moves to appease both the religious right in the primary and independents in the general election ultimately cost him the presidency, speakers said.

But congressional candidates backed by the party didn’t enjoy the wave of success that gave the movement momentum in 2010.

Newly elected Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, was the tea party poster child. He emerged victorious from the primary and glided to an easy win Tuesday.

Iowa Rep. Steve King also was reelected for his sixth term, but there’s where the good news  ended.

Failed presidential hopeful Rep. Michele Bachmann, R-Minn., barely scraped 51 percent of the vote for a victory against Democrat Jim Graves.

And several other candidates with Tea Party support were defeated..

Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock both lost Senate seats they had been favored to win before their comments on rape garnered national criticism. Reps. Joe Walsh, R-Ill.;  Roscoe Bartlett, R-Md.; and Francisco “Quico” Canseco, R-Texas, all lost their House seats. So did Rep. Denny Rehberg, R-Mont., who was trying to step up to the Senate. Allen West, R-Fla., is trailing in his House district but refuses to concede and called for a recount.

“The tea party’s flag drooped pretty severely in Senate contests around the country — everywhere except Texas,” Rice University political scientist Paul Brace said. “The question is whether Cruz still finds it useful to carry the tea party banner as he moves forward.”

Marjorie Dannenfelser, president of the Susan B. Anthony List — a political action committee dedicated to electing pro-life women to Congress — vowed to spend more time coaching candidates on sensitivity and message before giving them official endorsement. They’re not changing their views to appeal to minorities, but they do plan to listen more to what is important to groups like Latinos and African Americans to find common ground on social issues, Media Research Center President Brent Bozell said.

And they insist, despite the rough start, that someday the tea party will be the savior of the GOP.

“The battle to take over the Republican Party begins today,” ConservativeHQ.com chairman Richard Viguerie said. “Mitt Romney’s loss was the death rattle of the establishment of the Republican Party.”

It’s the year of the woman again, at least in Congress

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:lkazakoff@sfchronicle.com (Lois Kazakoff)
Comment
Comments

|
|

Fiona Ma was termed out, reducing the number of women in the Assembly by one. (Susana Bates/Special to the Chronicle)

In January, Washington will welcome a record number of women to Congress exceeding the storied Year of the Woman of 1992 when five women were elected to join two other women serving on Capitol Hill. The opportunity to elect female legislators arrives every 10 years with redistricting when new seats open up. A record 20 women (17 Democrats and 3 Republicans) will serve in the Senate, according to the Center for American Women and Politics. At least 76 women (56 Democrats and 20 Republicans) will serve in the House. Three more seats are still undecided.

But the story is less rosy in state legislatures, suggesting it will take more work to keep female candidates heading toward the halls of Congress in years to come. Nationwide, women gained 1 percent of the seats in state legislatures in this election. “We would have liked to have seen more,” said Anne Moses, founder of the Oakland-based IGNITE. “There needs to be a sustained effort at the state level. We’ve got to build a pipeline of women behind them.” IGNITE, which also has offices in Texas, is a nonpartisan organization that seeks to close the gap in electoral politics by building political ambition in young women.

There are some notable successes, such as New Hampshire, where no-nonsense New England voters elected an all-female congressional delegation and a female governor. The state had already notched a place in history as the first state to have a female majority in its state Senate.

California, however, has backslid. Women represent 28 percent of the Legislature now but come January the percentage will be 25.8 percent. The Assembly lost one seat held by a woman (Democrat Fiona Ma pictured above) and the state Senate lost two, leaving 21 women in the Assembly and 10 in the Senate.

Despite the need to have women’s voices in our democratic processes, it remains difficult to get women to run for office. The reasons? They feel too encumbered by family roles; they don’t get recruited as often as men and women feel less qualified when they are objectively more qualified. “We encourage the women who come to IGNITE for training to examine those feelings — and get over them,” Moses said.

Why is gender parity in elected office important? Two reasons: process and policy. Women are more productive, that is, they will work together and compromise to get stuff done. They take up issues of concern to everyone but typically ignored by male legislators, for example, equal pay, reproductive rights, immigration. “If we can get to a tipping point of equal representation of women in all of our elected bodies, then we have a different kind of conversation,” Moses explained.

Moses’ program, IGNITE, works with high school and college students to give them the know-how, confidence and goal-setting skills to encourage them to run for office while they are still young. “We say — start moving now, don’t wait until you are 38. Get involved with your community, build your network, be explicit about your goals.”

Her 3-year-old program has some young women who are positioning themselves for elective office and some who are discovering they have a stake and a voice in civic activities, even if they never enter politics. One of her high school students started following the campaign around Proposition 30, the California governor’s successful bid to raise more revenues for the state’s programs. “She Tweeted about it,” Moses said. “She’s following the process. That’s an enormous success, and she is just one of many.”

Interested in IGNITE’s programs to build political ambition in your women? Contact Moses at igniteca.org

We rate some of the winners/losers of CT’s 2012 campaign season

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:Brian Lockhart
Comment
Comments

|
|

Winners:
1. State residents now spared “Odd Couple” media stories about Democratic U.S. Sen. Dick Blumenthal having to serve with Republican Linda McMahon, who he defeated in her initial 2010 campaign.
2. Webster Bank, which fought back hard and successfully to preserve its reputation when McMahon alleged the community institution had given a special interest rate to her Democratic opponent, U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy.
3. Danbury Mayor Mark Boughton, a Republican, who, because the wealthy McMahon lost two consecutive Senate races, may have gained an edge on potential self-funded gubernatorial hopefuls. We’re looking at you, Greenwich millionaire Tom Foley.
4. Democratic President Barack Obama, who decisively ended McMahon’s efforts to woo his supporters by cutting a simple, straight-forward television commercial endorsing Murphy.
5. The talented advertisers who produced some of McMahon’s ads. Love her or hate her, who will soon forget the image of McMahon pushing her way through a crowd of black-and-white Murphy clones? Or the spoof of Murphy’s bad job interview?
6. Connecticut voters who, from all accounts, despite still dealing with the impact of Hurricane Sandy, turned out at the polls.
7. Those creditors stiffed by Vince and Linda McMahon during their 1976 bankruptcy, who finally got paid after their identities emerged during the 2012 race and many were contacted by the media.

Losers:
1. Retiring State Speaker of the House Chris Donovan, D-Meriden, the one time frontrunner for the 5th District Congressional seat who lost the primary to Elizabeth Esty after his campaign was embroiled in a federal investigation over fundraising. Donovan saw what might have been when Esty, a former rank-and-file legislator, won a tough race Tuesday.
2. McMahon’s flacks. She went through three during the campaign. While that’s not in the same category as New York Yankees managers under George Steinbrenner, being McMahon’s spokesperson wasn’t exactly a stable job.
3. Hispanic voters in Danbury after concerns surfaced that at least two Spanish speaking residents were allegedly turned away from one polling site for not speaking English.
4. Retiring veteran U.S. Senator Joseph Lieberman, the man Murphy and McMahon were vying to replace. The “independent Democrat” from Stamford has burned many bridges with his former party and did not involve himself in the 2012 race. The mention of his name at Murphy’s victory celebration Tuesday drew some half-hearted applause and a couple jeers.
5. Quinnipiac University’s pollsters, who were prevented by Hurricane Sandy from performing a final U.S. Senate poll.
6. Connecticut which, because of its reputation as a wealthy blue state was only visited by candidates when they wanted to tap wealthy contributors. President Obama, GOP rival Mitt Romney, Vice President Biden and Romney running mate Paul Ryan all visited for fundraisers.

Molgano wins in 144

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:Kate King
Comment
Comments

|
|

State Rep. Michael Molgano

STAMFORD — The race was too close to call Tuesday night, but the final tallies show incumbent Republican Michael Molgano held on to his seat representing District 144 in the state House of Representatives.

Molgano won the election by about 400 votes, beating out Democratic challenger Michael Pollard 5,082-4,676, according to numbers from the Stamford Registrar of Voters.

A record 20 women will serve in U.S. Senate

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:joelconnelly@seattlepi.com (Joel Connelly)
Comment
Comments

|
|

The election on Tuesday of five new women to the U.S. Senate, four of them Democrats, will bring to 20 the number of “Gentle ladies” in Congress’ upper chamber.

With the retirements of Republican Sens. Kay Bailey Hutchison and Olympia Snowe, the steady increase in numbers of Senate women was expected to stop in 2012.  Not so, and the women elected in campaign 2012 are a diverse lot in background and ideology.

Sen.-elect Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., is a high-profile Harvard Law professor and architect of the Wall Street reform package and new consumer agency passed by Congress in 2010.  Sen.-elect Deb Fischer, R-Nebraska, is a rural state legislator from western Nebraska who beat two better financed opponents in the GOP primary and easily defeated former Sen. (and Gov.) Bob Kerrey in the general election.

Sen.-elect Tammy Baldwin, D-Wisconsin, is the first openly gay woman to serve in the “World’s Greatest Deliberative Body.”  Sen.-elect Mazie Hirono, D-Hawaii, held the annual Net Roots National conference rap earlier this year with the tale of her mother escaping an abusive marriage in Japan and making a new life for herself and offspring in Hawaii.

The last Senate seat decided on Tuesday was North Dakota.  Considered a sure Republican pickup, it was held for the Democrats by former state Attorney General Heidi Heitkamp, who won despite the fact that Mitt Romney was piling up nearly 60 percent of the state’s vote.

Voters reelected Sens. Diane Feinstein, D-Calif., Maria Cantwell, D-Wash., Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., Debbie Stabenow, D-Mich., and Kirsten Gillibrand, D-New York.

Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Missouri, considered a goner in the summer, won a sweeping victory after her Republican challenger Todd Akin tried to argue that women’s bodies can shut down pregnancy when they become victims of forcible rape.  Mitt Romney was handily winning in Missouri.

Just over a quarter-century ago, in 1986, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Maryland, became the first woman elected to the Senate whose spouse had not served before her in Congress.  The “year of the women,” 1992, brought Feinstein and Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., and Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash., to the Senate, where they continue to serve.

It was Murray, reluctantly taking the job of Senate Democratic Campaign Committee chair, who recruited several of Tuesday’s winners.

With Snowe’s retirement in Maine, Washington, California and New Hampshire are the three states  in which women hold both U.S. Senate seats.  With the election of two Democratic women to the U.S. House of Representatives, New Hampshire became the first state to have an all-women congressional delegation.

From the polls to the president: which presidential polls were the most accurate

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
Comment
Comments

|
|

Even as the first returns started rolling in, it was a tight presidential race to call. And with an election this close, polling projections for the national popular vote were tightly grouped, varying by five percentage points or less.

In the end, President Barack Obama won the popular vote with 50.4 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 48. 1 percent as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. Less than 3 million votes made the difference.

IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research and National Journal all projected Obama’s popular vote within 1 percent. Each is ranked next based on how accurately it placed Romney.

Most polls underestimated Obama’s victory. FOX News was the worst with a -4.4 difference, although it also underestimated Romney’s strength.

Nate Silver, who accurately predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, had them all running in circles. This year his mathematical models based on a conglomerate of polls won him a perfect score despite ongoing criticisms of his methodology.

Here’s a breakdown of which polls were dead on and which ones were duds:

1. IBD/TIPP, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 50, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney +.9

2T. ABC News/Washington Post, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

2T. Pew Research, Oct. 31-Nov. 3

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

4. National Journal, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +5. Obama 50, Romney 45

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -3.1

5. CNN/Opinion Research, Nov. 2-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 49, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +.9

6. Gallup, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 49, Romney 50

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +1.9

7T. Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun. Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 48, Romney 48

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -.1

7T. Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 48, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney +.9

9T. CBS News/New York Times, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

9T. NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1-3

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

10. Politico/GWU/Battleground, Nov. 4-5

Prediction: Tie. Obama 47, Romney 47

Off by:  Obama -3.4, Romney -1.1

11. FOX News, Oct. 28-30

Prediction: Tie. Obama 46, Romney 46

Off by: Obama -4.4, Romney -2.1

New York Times blogger predicts election results

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:Dan McGraw
Comment
Comments

|
|

New York Times blogger Nate Silver earned some fame during the 2008 election for accurately predicting the presidential winner in 49 of 50 states.

He didn’t disappoint in 2012 either.

Silver has accurately guessed all of the called races in the presidential contest. Florida has yet to be decided yet, but Silver could run the table if President Barack Obama maintains his thin margin over Republican Mitt Romney.

So if you are counting, Silver is 98-99 on picking the Electoral College. Vegas should fear him.

Silver was so confident about his prediction that he was willing to wager $2,000 with MSNBC host Joe Scarborough on Obama winning re-election. The New York Times later called the bet “a bad idea” and “inappropriate,” according to the Huffington Post.

Scarborough, however, might not have had the best of luck with friendly wagers though.

The MSNBC host bet Obama advisor David Axelrod that he would grow a mustache if Obama won North Carolina or Florida. Romney captured North Carolina, but he is facing an uphill battle in the Sunshine State.

If that happens, Silver runs the table and Scarborough gets a mustache just in time for Movember.

Page 1 of 41234