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Former President Bill Clinton speaks at a campaign event for Barack Obama at the Coliseum in St. Petersburg, Fla. Friday, Nov. 2. 2012.
Scott Iskowitz / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama
Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo
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President Obama greets supporters after speaking at a campaign event at the Carillon at Byrd Park, Oct. 25, 2012, in Richmond.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama arrives for a campaign event at Elm Street Middle School, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 in Nashua, N.H.
Jim Cole / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama
Carolyn Kaster / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama holds up a baby at a campaign event at Elm Street Middle School, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 in Nashua, N.H.
Jim Cole / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama uses a cell phone to call supporters during a visit to a local campaign office, Monday, Oct. 1, 2012, in Henderson, Nev.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama speaks during a campaign event at Doolittle Park, Wednesday, Oct. 24, 2012, in Las Vegas.
Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama hugs his daughter Sasha as he walks with Malia as they leave St. John's Episcopal Church to walk across Lafayette Park as they return to the White House in Washington, on Sunday, Oct. 28, 2012.
Jacquelyn Martin / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama reaches out to hold a baby at campaign event at Elm Street Middle School, Saturday, Oct. 27, 2012 in Nashua, N.H.
Jim Cole / AP Photo
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Matt Rourke / AP Photo
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Vice President Joe Biden's talks to customers during a stop at Cruisers Diner, Sunday, Sept. 9, 2012, in Seaman, Ohio.
Carolyn Kaster / AP Photo
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Matt Rourke / AP Photo
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J. Scott Applewhite
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Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP Photo
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Matt Rourke / AP Photo
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Vice President Joe Biden's talks to customers during a stop at Cruisers Diner, Sunday, Sept. 9, 2012, in Seaman, Ohio.
Carolyn Kaster / AP Photo
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AP Photo
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President Barack Obama makes phone calls to volunteers at an Obama campaign office with Suzanne Stern, right, Sunday, Oct. 14, 2012, in Williamsburg, Va.
Carolyn Kaster / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama waves after Former President Bill Clinton spoke at the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, N.C., Sept. 5, 2012.
David Goldman / AP Photo
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GOP presidential candidate, former MA Governor Mitt Romney appears on stage with former Pres Bill Clinton at Clinton’s Global Initiative Convention in New York City. Sept 25, 2012
Evan Vucci / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama walks to the podium as former President Bill Clinton waves to the crowd at right during a campaign event in the State Capitol Square, Sunday, Nov. 4
Carolyn kaster / AP Photo
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President Barack Obama hugs former President Bill Clinton after his speech in Charlotte on September 5, 2012.
David Goldman / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney waves during a campaign rally at the Shelby County Fairgrounds on Wednesday, Oct. 10, 2012, in Sidney, Ohio.
Evan Vucci / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, left, is introduced by his son Matt before he speaks at a campaign fundraising event in Del Mar, Calif., Saturday, Sept. 22, 2012.
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney poses for photographs with students of Fairfield Elementary School, Monday, Oct. 8, 2012, in Fairfield, Va.
Evan Vucci / AP
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney poses for photographs with students of Fairfield Elementary School after stopping at their school to greet them, Monday, Oct. 8, 2012, in Fairfield, Va.
Evan Vucci / AP
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, third from left, waits in line to order dinner at BurgerFi on Sunday, Oct. 21, 2012 in Delray Beach, Fla. From left, son Craig, wife Ann, Romney, and grandson Parker.
Evan Vucci / AP Photo
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Republican vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., talks to his daughter, Liza, and son, Sam, about the stadium astroturf at a Bowling Green State University and Miami University of Ohio football game, Saturday, Oct. 13, 2012 in Bowling Green, Ohio.
Mary Altaffer / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney speaks at a Colorado Conservative Political Action Committee (CPAC) meeting in Denver, Thursday, Oct. 4, 2012. At rear are sons Matt, Craig, Tagg, and Josh Romney.
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
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Jae C. Hong / AP Photo
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AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
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Mitt Romney, wears a Boston Red Sox jersey, at a hotel in New York.
Gregory Bul / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, left and running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., talk in the campaign bus before an event at the Waukesha county expo center, Sunday, Aug. 12, 2012 in Waukesha, Wis.
Mary Altaffer / AP Photo
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Jeffrey Phelps / Getty Images
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Republican vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin mans the phones at the Team Nevada headquarters in Las Vegas, Thursday, Nov. 1, 2012.
Jerry Henkel / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, listens and Republican vice presidential candidate, Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., speaks during a campaign event at the Long Family Farm, Orchard & Cider Mill, Friday, Aug. 24, 2012 in Commerce, Mich.
AP Photo
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AP Photo
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First Lady Michelle Obama turns and runs after catching a pass while participating in the Let's Move! Campaign and the NFL's Play 60 Campaign festivities with area youth in New Orleans in this Sept. 8, 2010 file photo.
Gerald Herbert / AP Photo
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Ann Romney works the phones during a surprise appearance at the Republican Party of Orange County Victory Office on Saturday, Oct. 6, 2012 in Orlando, Fla.
Joe Burbank / AP Photo
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First lady Michelle Obama signs copies of her book "American Grown: The Story of the White House Kitchen Garden and Garden Across America," in Washington, Tuesday, June 12, 2012.
Jacquelyn Martin / AP Photo
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Barack Obama reads "Where the Wild Things Are", by Maurice Sendak, with Michelle and Malia Obama at the annual Easter Egg Roll in Washington D.C on April 9, 2012.
Rex Features / AP Photo
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Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and wife Ann Romney jet ski on Lake Winnipesaukee in Wolfeboro, N.H., Monday, July 2, 2012, where Romney has a vacation home.
Charles Dharapak / AP Photo
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Even as the first returns started rolling in, it was a tight presidential race to call. And with an election this close, polling projections for the national popular vote were tightly grouped, varying by five percentage points or less.
In the end, President Barack Obama won the popular vote with 50.4 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 48. 1 percent as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. Less than 3 million votes made the difference.
IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research and National Journal all projected Obama’s popular vote within 1 percent. Each is ranked next based on how accurately it placed Romney.
Most polls underestimated Obama’s victory. FOX News was the worst with a -4.4 difference, although it also underestimated Romney’s strength.
Nate Silver, who accurately predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, had them all running in circles. This year his mathematical models based on a conglomerate of polls won him a perfect score despite ongoing criticisms of his methodology.
Here’s a breakdown of which polls were dead on and which ones were duds:
1. IBD/TIPP, Nov. 3-5
Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 50, Romney 49
Off by: Obama -.4, Romney +.9
2T. ABC News/Washington Post, Nov. 1-4
Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47
Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1
2T. Pew Research, Oct. 31-Nov. 3
Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47
Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1
4. National Journal, Oct. 25-28
Prediction: Obama +5. Obama 50, Romney 45
Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -3.1
5. CNN/Opinion Research, Nov. 2-4
Prediction: Tie. Obama 49, Romney 49
Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +.9
6. Gallup, Nov. 1-4
Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 49, Romney 50
Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +1.9
7T. Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun. Nov. 1-4
Prediction: Tie. Obama 48, Romney 48
Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -.1
7T. Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 3-5
Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 48, Romney 49
Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney +.9
9T. CBS News/New York Times, Oct. 25-28
Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47
Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1
9T. NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1-3
Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47
Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1
10. Politico/GWU/Battleground, Nov. 4-5
Prediction: Tie. Obama 47, Romney 47
Off by: Obama -3.4, Romney -1.1
11. FOX News, Oct. 28-30
Prediction: Tie. Obama 46, Romney 46
Off by: Obama -4.4, Romney -2.1