From the polls to the president: which presidential polls were the most accurate

Even as the first returns started rolling in, it was a tight presidential race to call. And with an election this close, polling projections for the national popular vote were tightly grouped, varying by five percentage points or less.

In the end, President Barack Obama won the popular vote with 50.4 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 48. 1 percent as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. Less than 3 million votes made the difference.

IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research and National Journal all projected Obama’s popular vote within 1 percent. Each is ranked next based on how accurately it placed Romney.

Most polls underestimated Obama’s victory. FOX News was the worst with a -4.4 difference, although it also underestimated Romney’s strength.

Nate Silver, who accurately predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, had them all running in circles. This year his mathematical models based on a conglomerate of polls won him a perfect score despite ongoing criticisms of his methodology.

Here’s a breakdown of which polls were dead on and which ones were duds:

1. IBD/TIPP, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 50, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney +.9

2T. ABC News/Washington Post, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

2T. Pew Research, Oct. 31-Nov. 3

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

4. National Journal, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +5. Obama 50, Romney 45

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -3.1

5. CNN/Opinion Research, Nov. 2-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 49, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +.9

6. Gallup, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 49, Romney 50

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +1.9

7T. Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun. Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 48, Romney 48

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -.1

7T. Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 48, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney +.9

9T. CBS News/New York Times, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

9T. NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1-3

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

10. Politico/GWU/Battleground, Nov. 4-5

Prediction: Tie. Obama 47, Romney 47

Off by:  Obama -3.4, Romney -1.1

11. FOX News, Oct. 28-30

Prediction: Tie. Obama 46, Romney 46

Off by: Obama -4.4, Romney -2.1