Speculation about House minority leader Nancy Pelosi’s future is intensifying with the failure of House Democrats to net more than a single-digit gain, despite their huge six-seat haul in California.
Pelosi’s office continues to tamp down the idea that she might step down as minority leader, but she has been uncharacteristically quiet, holding no post-election conference calls with the caucus. Colleagues outside her tight inner circle say they have no idea what she’ll do and was probably awaiting the outcome of the election.
Now that it’s over, here are a few of the tea leaves to ponder:
Pelosi will finish her new term: The one firm thing she has said publicly is that she will serve out her new term as San Francisco’s representative. She just celebrated her 25th anniversary, and was re-elected Tuesday with 84.7 percent of the vote, her second-highest showing since 1998. “Retirement is not an operative word,” her staff said. Some think she is sticking around to pick her successor. Her rival and loyal lieutenant Steny Hoyer wants the job, but he’s 73 and speculation is that Pelosi wants to install Maryland workhorse Chris Van Hollen, 53, who is everywhere on TV. Pelosi will also have an eye to her successor in San Francisco. Plenty of people want that job, and state Sen. Mark Leno is a top contender.
Little chance of regaining the Speaker’s gavel anytime soon: The party of the incumbent president often loses seats in midterm elections, especially the mid-term of a president’s second term. It’s a long road back to the Speakership, and that has got to dampen her enthusiasm.
Drive for 25 fell way short: The final tally depends on close races including Lungren/Bera and Bilbray/Peters in California, but the shortfall has been vividly cast as “epic” even though Pelosi said it beat historical trends by “more than doubling the seats historically gained by a president’s party in a re-election campaign.” Many acknowledge that GOP controlled redistricting played a big role, but Pelosi’s bet that a Mediscare campaign would deliver the House failed badly. In September, when Mitt Romney picked Paul Ryan as veep, Pelosi told CNN’s Candy Crowley it was in the bag: “We have been saying there are three important issues in this campaign. And in alphabetical order, they are Medicare, Medicare, Medicare.” Didn’t work.
Alexandra Pelosi gave a hint last year: Pelosi’s daughter, filmmaker Alexandra Pelosi, dropped a bomb last December when she told an interviewer her mother, “would retire right now, if the donors she has didn’t want her to stay so badly. They know she wants to leave, though….She’s 71, she wants to have a life, she’s done. It’s obligation, that’s all I’m saying.” Pelosi’s staff again quashed the idea. Now Pelosi is 72. She still has a shocking level of energy, but horizons are looming and the job is flat-out, seven days a week.
Pelosi delayed leadership elections until after Thanksgiving: This is what set off rampant speculation that Pelosi might step down. Usually leaders call for elections immediately after voters install the new caucus to solidify their support. The delay set heads scratching, as did Pelosi staff’s odd explanations that members were being bombarded by electioneering further down the ranks by the likes of Rep. Barbara Lee, which several members denied.
The job is hers if she wants it: Democrats are clear that if Pelosi wants the job, it’s hers. Nobody has yet challenged her. Her fundraising is prodigious and has always been key to her rise. In October, she held 65 events in eight states (think about that), raising $12.9 million to elect House Democrats. Since entering the leadership in 2002, Pelosi has raised $328 million; in just this election cycle her total was 692 events raising $85.1 million. As our Matier and Ross note, that’s a lot of chits.
Liberals adore her: Here’s what retiring Petaluma Democrat Lynn Woolsey, who has sometimes parted ways on votes with the former Speaker, told us before the election. “The Democrats would never have survived without Nancy Pelosi, I can tell you that,” Woolsey said. “For heaven’s sake, she is the heart and soul of the Congressional caucus and the Democratic Party. She’s a leader, she’s the one, she’s the voice.”
Pelosi achieved a majority/minority caucus: The first woman Speaker in history achieved another spectacular historical milestone Tuesday, despite falling short in her drive for 25. For the first time ever, women and minorities will hold a majority of Democratic House seats. Pelosi emphasized the achievement in her official statement on the election results, saying January will bring “the first ‘majority-minority’ Caucus in our history, reflecting the great diversity and strength of our nation.”
Only she knows for sure: Sources said even her inner circle, which includes Rep. George Miller, D-Martinez, and Anna Eshoo, D-Palo Alto, doesn’t know what she’ll do.
