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Gun-control foe Cruz has ‘cordial’ phone conversation with daughter of slain Sandy Hook principal, agrees to disagree on gun control

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 by:Richard Dunham
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Erica Lafferty will be heard.

The 27-year-daughter of slain Sandy Hook Elementary School principal Dawn Lafferty Hochsprung may not have the money to come to Washington to lobby for gun-control legislation. So she’s using a less-expensive way to reach Republican senators who are threatening to filibuster any efforts to change the nation’s gun laws: Twitter.

Lafferty’s Twitter barrage — her Twitter handle is @E_Laffs2 — has targeted the 14 Republicans who have pledged to join a filibuster, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. She attached poignant photos of her mom and her family, trying to appeal to the human side of the lawmakers.

The young woman, who lives near Newtown, also tried to reach the senators the old-fashioned way, by telephone.

Joining her effort was Connecticut’s governor, Dan Malloy, who tried to shame the senators to take her calls.

Getting nowhere fast, Lafferty kept up the tweet barrage.

After a day of desperate tweets yesterday, only one Republican had responded.

Cruz.

The first-term senator who is pledging to lead a filibuster to block Senate consideration of a gun-control package, which includes expanded background checks of firearms purchasers.

“She called his office yesterday morning,” Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said today. “He immediately said, ‘Let’s call her back.’”

Frazier said the two spoke for “10 to 15 minutes” on Tuesday afternoon. While describing the discussion as “a personal conversation,” Frazier said “it was a cordial conversation. She was able to ask him some questions.”

Lafferty told the New York Times that she asked Cruz pointed questions, including these: “What would have happened if my mom chose not to do her job? How many more people would have died if my mom had chosen to hide?”

Cruz did not back down an inch from his filibuster threat against any proposal he sees as a threat to the Second Amendment.

“They agreed to disagree,” said Frazier.

Still, she added, “he was glad he could do it. He was happy to.”

Lafferty responded to the conversation, naturally, on Twitter. “At least he called (me) back,” she wrote, followed by the hashtag #ThanksButNoThanksCruz.

Sympathetic Texans sent Twitter messages of support to Lafferty, many of them blasting their Republican senator.

The Connecticut woman is showing no signs of slowing down. Today, she tweeted to unpersuaded senators with a defiant message.

Blumenthal proposes bill to fight ‘modern-day slavery’

Friday, March 1, 2013 by:Richard Dunham
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By ALISON SULLIVAN
Hearst Washington Bureau

Connecticut Sen. Richard Blumenthal is leading a bipartisan effort to fight what he calls “modern day slavery.”

Blumenthal has joined co-sponsors Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas, Rep. John Carter, R-Texas, and Rep. Carolyn Maloney, D-N.Y., in introducing the Human Trafficking Reporting Act on Thursday.

The bill calls for human traffickers to be labeled under the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s “Part I violent crimes.” The label would make human trafficking a major crime under the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports. Murder, non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery, and aggravated assault are other crimes with a Part I designation.

Designating the crime as a Part I violent crime would also better equip law enforcement agencies to train officials to prevent human trafficking by opening up more grant funding opportunities.

Blumenthal has co-sponsored pieces legislation to fight human trafficking and violence against women in the past, and co-chairs the Senate Caucus to End Human Trafficking.

“Human trafficking is a heinous crime which egregiously exploits women and children and forces them into modern day slavery,” he said in a statement. “Trafficking deprives people of their liberty and freedom through indentured servitude and forced labor.”

Of the human trafficking cases opened by the U.S. Department of Justice between 2008 and 2010, 83 percent of them were U.S. citizens. In 2011, the National Human Trafficking Resource Center hotline received 90 calls from Connecticut in relation to human trafficking.

“We must work together, at every level of government, to equip law enforcement with the tools they need to crack down on human traffickers,” said Cornyn.

When it comes to Sandy media coverage, Malloy overshadowed by neighboring governors

Thursday, November 15, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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Superstorm Sandy kept Connecticut Gov. Dan Malloy busy. But you might not know it from the national media coverage.

A new survey released today found that Connecticut got only a fraction of the national attention paid to its larger neighbors, New York and New Jersey. And the state’s Democratic governor got only a tiny fraction of the coverage lavished on New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo.

Particularly the omnipresent Christie.

The study by HighBeam Research concluded that New York received 52.3 percent of the media attention related to Sandy since October 27, compared to 38.2 percent for New Jersey and 9.5 percent for Connecticut.

But when it comes to political coverage, the big winner — other than Barack Obama — was New Jersey’s hard-charging Republican governor. Christie received 72.1 percent of the attention dedicated to governors of states hit by the massive storm. New York’s Cuomo netted 26.5 percent — despite the national media focus on damage in Manhattan and on Staten Island.

Malloy?

He received just 1.4 percent of the coverage.

Things could have been a lot worse for the Connecticut governor.

At least the coverage he got was overwhelmingly positive.

Five debates that changed the course of presidential campaigns

Wednesday, October 3, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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There are memorable moments in presidential debates — and then there are important moments.

The memorable moments — Rick Perry’s “oops,” Lloyd Bentsen’s “you’re no Jack Kennedy,” Admiral Stockdale’s “who am I, what am I doing here” — are, well, memorable, but they often don’t determine the ultimate winner of the presidential race.

Then there are debates that prove to be pivot points in a presidential election campaign. Here are examples of five such encounters — four presidential debates and one vice-presidential event — that played a role in the ultimate result in November.

1. Ronald Reagan vs. Jimmy Carter, 1980

Three days before the Oct. 29 debate, a Gallup poll found Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter ahead of Republican challenger Ronald Reagan, 47 percent to 39 percent. But Reagan’s masterful performance, and Carter’s off-night, dramatically changed the trajectory of the race. Two moments from the debate have become political lore: Reagan’s “there you go again” rejoinder and his “are you better off than you were four years ago” closing statement. About two-thirds of Americans thought Reagan won the debate and the final pre-election Gallup poll showed Reagan edging into the lead, 47 percent to 44 percent. The trend toward Reagan continued and he ended up besting Carter, 51 percent to 41 percent.

2. Jimmy Carter vs. Gerald Ford, 1976

Democratic challenger Jimmy Carter took a massive 62 percent to 29 percent Gallup Poll lead over incumbent Republican President Gerald Ford after the 1976 Democratic convention. But Ford continued to chip away at Carter’s advantage and had pulled into a statistical tie (trailing 47 to 45 percent) leading into the debate where Ford asserted — vigorously and repeatedly — that Poland and the rest of Eastern Europe were free of Soviet domination. Polish-American voters (and many others) begged to differ. Immediately, Carter regained a lead, 48 percent to 42 percent. He hung on to win, 50 percent to 48 percent.

3. John F. Kennedy vs. Richard Nixon, 1960

Vice President Richard Nixon clung to a narrow lead over Sen. John F. Kennedy into September 1960, and was up by 1 percentage point when he met his Democratic rival on Sept. 26 for the first televised presidential debate in history. While debate judges declared that Nixon had won two of the four debates, Kennedy had won one and the final encounter was a draw, the public was more impressed by Kennedy’s mastery of the new medium of television. The telegenic senator took a 4 percentage point lead out of the final debate and barely eked out a win on Election Day, 49.7 percent to 49.5 percent.

4. Bill Clinton vs. George H.W. Bush, 1992

Democratic challenger Bill Clinton opened up a 25 percentage point Gallup poll lead over incumbent Republican George Bush, 57 percent to 32 percent, following his highly successful Democratic National Convention in New York. But Bush’s persistent attacks on Clinton (“failed governor, small state”) helped him narrow the lead to 1 percentage point with just weeks remaining in the campaign. A town hall debate in Richmond, Va., where Bush famously looked at his watch as Clinton was answering a question, turned things around for the young Arkansas Democrat. Clinton’s lead grew from 41-40 percent to 43-36 percent in a week.

5. Dick Cheney vs. Joe Lieberman, 2000

Vice President Al Gore and Texas Gov. George W. Bush had traded leads in the 2000 presidential race for a month. Gore held his biggest lead of the year in a Gallup Poll, 50 percent to 41 percent, before the Oct. 5 vice presidential debate in Danville, Ky. Some voters worried that Bush had scant foreign policy experience, so the pressure was on his running mate, former Defense Secretary Dick Cheney, to reassure doubters. Cheney dominated Democrat Joe Lieberman at Centre College. Instant polls showed the public overwhelmingly believed that Cheney had won — 43 percent to 24 percent, according to an ABC News survey. The next Gallup presidential match-up showed Bush and Cheney back in the lead, 48 percent to 41 percent.

Ten most memorable moments from presidential debates

Tuesday, October 2, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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Most presidential debates are lost to history, inconsequential encounters in the wide sweep of presidential campaigns. But a few moments have been locked into our memories. Here are ten of the key most intriguing moments in the 52-year history of presidential debates:

1. Richard Nixon, sick and sweaty, looks bad even though he sounds good, 1960.

The debate that made televised debates famous. Radio listeners thought that Vice President Richard Nixon was the better debater. Television viewers — and there were many more of them — thought Sen. John F. Kennedy was the superior communicator. That’s because radio listeners could not see the Republican candidate, who was battling an illness and looked uncomfortable and occasionally shifty. Historians say the debate was a critical factor in Kennedy’s narrow victory.

2. Gerald Ford says Poland is free from Soviet domination, 1976.

The biggest gaffe of presidential debates came when Gerald Ford declared that Eastern Europe in general (and Poland specifically) was not dominated by the Soviet Union. Polish-Americans, and millions of other Americans from the so-called “captive nations” of Eastern Europe begged to differ.

3. Ronald Reagan asks if you’re better off now than you were four years ago, 1980

They’ve been asking this question ever since, but Ronald Reagan did it first and best. Since almost nobody thought the U.S. was better off economically than it was when Jimmy Carter became president in January 1977, the former California governor’s query resonated with dissatisfied Americans.

4. Reagan’s great comeback: “There you go again.”

Desperate to dent Reagan’s political armor, a flailing Carter tried to portray his conservative opponent as an extremist who would end Social Security and Medicare as we knew them and might just provoke a nuclear conflagration. Reagan disarmed the Democratic incumbent with another one of his signature one-liners.

5. Reagan’s quip defuses the age issue, 1984.

Reagan performed poorly in the first presidential debate of 1984 and polls showed Walter Mondale narrowing the Republican incumbent’s big lead. The Gipper stopped Mondale’s surge with a joke about age: “I will not make age an issue of this campaign. I am not going to exploit, for political purposes, my opponent’s youth and inexperience.” Mondale laughed but later told his wife Eleanor that the quip had sealed Reagan’s victory.

6. CNN’s Bernard Shaw ties Michael Dukakis in knots with a hypothetical question about the rape and murder of the candidate’s wife.

In a 1988 debate in Los Angeles, Massachusetts Gov. Michael Dukakis answered a strange question about the possible rape and murder of his wife Kitty by repeating his opposition to the death penalty. His cool, analytical answer failed to connect with TV viewers.

7. George H.W. Bush is flummoxed in a town hall debate by a citizens’ question about people having trouble making ends meet, 1992.

A woman at the debate in Richmond asked the Republican incumbent how the nation’s economic troubles had affected him personally. Bush appeared stumped by the question and eventually talked about how the economy was improving.

8. Al Gore sighs, rolls his eyes

At a debate in Boston, Al Gore’s body language ended up more famous than his words. He sighed, he rolled his eyes, he even invaded George W. Bush’s space at one point. The immature behavior marred an otherwise strong debate performance.

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9. Al Gore’s mention of a “lock box” in 2000 was so widely parodied that he even made a joke of it himself in this Saturday Night Life spoof.

Al Gore assured voters that Social Security money wasn’t going to be spent for other purposes if he were elected president in 2000. So he invented the concept of a “lock box” to protect Social Security from rampaging lawmakers. After George W. Bush became president, Congress and the president once again raided Social Security to pay for tax cuts and government spending.

10. Technical difficulties mar 1976 presidential debate in Philadelphia.

About eight minutes before the end of the 1976 debate at the Walnut Street Theater, the audio feed from the bicentennial encounter in Philadelphia. Television anchors tried to fill the void — awkwardly.The candidates stopped eventually stopped talking and stood at their podiums — awkwardly.

Electoral College Update: Bad news for Romney on eve of debates

Monday, October 1, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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RICK DUNHAM'S ELECTORAL MAP -- October 1, 2012

Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

On the eve of the first presidential debate between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney, polls show the Democratic incumbent leading in every battleground state. For the first time since we began our Electoral College Update, Obama has a clear lead in states (and the District of Columbia) with more than 270 electoral votes. He now stands at 271, one more than the magic number needed to claim victory.

There’s been a lot of kvetching among Republican loyalists over polling methodology. My thought: Rick’s Rule #1 of polling is that any individual poll can be wrong but they can’t all be wrong. Even Fox News’ polling shows Obama ahead.

The best way for Romney to redraw the map in a hurry is to perform well in the three upcoming debates. The national average over the past week stood at an Obama lead of 4.0 percentage points, almost unchanged from 3.9 a week ago and 3.1 a week two weeks ago.

Advantage: Obama.
Trend: None

The battlegrounds: Colorado
Lead: Obama +2.9
Compared to national average: Romney +1.1
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Florida
Lead: Obama +3.2
Compared to national average: Romney +0.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Iowa
Lead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Michigan
Lead: Obama +8.8
Compared to national average: Obama +4.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

Nevada
Lead: Obama +3.8
Compared to national average: Romney +0.2
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +3.0
Compared to national average: Romney +1.0
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Mexico
Lead: Obama +10.0
Compared to national average: Obama +6.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

North Carolina
Lead: Obama +1.1
Compared to national average: Romney +2.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Ohio
Lead: Obama +5.9
Compared to national average: Obama +1.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +8.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Obama favored

Virginia
Lead: Obama +3.7
Compared to national average: Romney +0.3
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +7.8
Compared to national average: Obama +3.8
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Spotlight state: Iowa

Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.

Ten races where Mitt Romney could sink Republican candidates

Sunday, September 30, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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Mitt Romney’s campaign woes have taken a toll on Republican candidates in Democratic-leaning or swing states.

Polls show that some Republicans who had been running ahead of Democratic opponents have now slipped into tight contests, while others who had been surging around Labor Day have now dropped behind.

The impact of Romney’s struggles is not as evident in heavily Republican states, where President Obama appears to have little or no coattails.

Here are ten elections where Obama’s strength — or Romney’s weakness — could sink Republican nominees:

Massachusetts Sen. Scott Brown

The freshman Republican shocked the Democratic establishment by winning a 2010 special election for the Senate seat long held by Ted Kennedy, but now he’s suffering from anti-Romney backlash in Mitt’s home state. The GOP presidential candidate, a former Massachusetts governor, is trailing in Bay State polls by as many as 33 percentage points. Even though the state has a large bloc of independents — and Brown is one of the most independent Republicans in the Senate — a massive Obama blow-out could make a flawed Democratic nominee, Elizabeth Warren, a senator.

Connecticut Senate candidate Linda McMahon

Just when Republican Senate candidate Linda McMahon was surging, Mitt Romney’s “47 percent” controversy came along. The former wrestling CEO, who has run a disciplined and well-organized campaign, saw a short-lived lead over Democrat Chris Murphy turn into a small but significant deficit over the past three weeks. McMahon still has a chance if her attacks on Murphy’s attendance record and personal finances become significant issues in the eyes of the voters. But a double-digit win by Obama could doom her best efforts.

Rhode Island House challenger Brendan Doherty

Freshman Democrat David Cicilline is in trouble not because of anything he’s done in Washington, but because of the mess he left behind in Providence. Cicilline, the city’s former mayor, said two years ago that he was leaving the city in excellent condition. The current mayor, Democrat Angel Taveras, has described Providence’s finances as a ‘‘Category 5 hurricane.” His Republican opponent, former Rhode Island State Police Chief Brendan Doherty, has remained competitive in a state with a three-to-one Democratic registration edge and an independent governor who is backing President Obama. Cicilline is trying to tie Doherty to the Romney-Ryan agenda, prompting Doherty to tell the Associated Press: ‘‘I am not a part of any radical position. I’m running as Brendan Doherty. I’m my own man.’’ Doherty could be the right candidate in the wrong year.

California Rep. Dan Lungren

Democrat Ami Bera, the former chief medical officer of Sacramento County and a medical professor at the University of California, Davis, ran a respectable race against veteran California conservative Dan Lungren two years ago but fell short amid the national GOP landslide. This year, the tide has turned and California Republicans are playing defense in a state where President Obama could win by 20 percentage points. Lungren and San Diego Republican congressman Brian Bilbray are the incumbents most likely to be swept away if Romney doesn’t close the gap.

Illinois Rep. Bob Dold

Illinois freshman Rep. Bob Dold holds the distinction of representing the most Democratic congressional district currently in Republican hands. Add to that the fact that Illinois is President Obama’s home state and he’s going to win biiiiiiiiiiig there. One Tea Party freshman from Illinois, Joe Walsh, is already toast. But Dold, one of the most independent of the GOP freshmen, has run a solid campaign and remains in a competitive contest with Democratic businessman Brad Schneider. Romney’s performance could well determine Dold’s future.

Washington state gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna

The state of Washington is the most Democratic in the nation when it comes to its governorship. No Republican has been elected governor here since 1980. At the outset of this year’s campaign, GOP Attorney General Rob McKenna has a good chance of making history. Recent polls show the race a dead heat and McKenna, a Texas native, leads among independents. But the Democratic tide could help former congressman Jay Inslee keep the Democratic streak alive.

Virginia Senate candidate George Allen

Until Romney’s September woes, the Virginia Senate race was the nation’s closest. But recent polls show Democrat Tim Kaine moving ahead of Republican George Allen in a battle of popular former governors. Kaine’s lead mirrors Obama’s — and there are not many Virginians who will split their tickets. If Romney rebounds — and it’s possible that he will — Allen will, too. If not, Kaine will keep this Senate seat in Democratic hands.

Pennsylvania Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick

Democrats are working overtime to tie Republican congressman Mike Fitzpatrick to Romney. They are calling the incumbent “mini-Mitt” and “Mike FitzRomney” after he told a Tea Party group that Congress needs people who “sign the front of a paycheck, not the back of the paycheck.” An upset winner in 2010, the suburban Philadelphia Republican entered the current election year a clear favorite when the Democrat he ousted, Iraq War veteran Patrick Murphy, decided to run for Pennsylvania attorney general rather than seeking a rematch. But Obama swept Philadelphia’s suburbs in 2008 and is likely to win comfortably among Fitzpatrick’s Bucks County constituents. That gives hope to Democratic nominee Kathy Boockvar, who Fitzpatrick derisively dismisses as “a Pelosi protégé.”

New York House challenger Chris Collins

Democrat Kathy Hochul won a dramatic upset in a 2011 special election for a western New York House seat surrendered by Republican Chris Lee, whose shirtless photo made him one of the Empire State’s laughingstock lawmakers. (Think Anthony Weiner.) Republicans have a 40,000 voter edge in registration here, and GOP nominee Chris Collins, a former Erie County Executive, is well-known. Collins held a slight edge in August polling, but that was before Romney’s slump. With Obama favored to win New York by 20 percentage points or more, Collins could come up short.

Arizona Senate candidate Jeff Flake

The tough immigration enforcement law that won the state national admirers and detractors has had one unintended effect: It has strongly motivated Latinos and Democrats to come to the polls in 2012. The result is closer-than-anticipated races both for president and Senate in Arizona. While Romney seems likely to hang on, the prognosis is more iffy for Rep. Jeff Flake, the early favorite to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Jon Kyl. The beneficiary is Rich Carmona, President George W. Bush’s U.S. Surgeon General, who is the Democratic Senate nominee. Recent polling shows a close race. If Romney avoids further setbacks, Flake should be able to hold on. If the bottom falls out on the GOP presidential candidate, however, Carmona could be one of the surprise winners on Nov. 6.

Ten races where Barack Obama could sink Democratic incumbents

Sunday, September 30, 2012 by:Richard Dunham
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There’s been a lot of media attention lately focused on Republican candidates who are distancing themselves from struggling presidential nominee Mitt Romney.

But Mitt Romney’s not the only presidential candidate who made turn out to be toxic for some of his own party’s candidates. Barack Obama’s lack of popularity in Republican-leaning states is endangering some Democratic incumbents who are trying to survive the anti-Obama tide in their states.

Here are ten Democratic incumbents who could lose their jobs because of Obama:

1. Montana Sen. Jon Tester

Jon Tester narrowly unseated Republican Sen. Conrad Burns six years ago in the national backlash against George W. Bush. But Bush is not on the ballot now. And President Obama remains unpopular in Montana. Tester is running as an independent-minded incumbent, but Republican Denny Rehberg is doing his best to make Obama an anchor that will sink the freshman Democrat.

2. Utah Rep. Jim Matheson

If there is one state where a pro-Romney wave could unseat a Democratic incumbent, it’s in heavily Mormon Utah. Romney could win three-fourths of the vote, and a Romney romp could cost the state’s lone Democratic congressman, Jim Matheson, his seat. His opponent, Tea Party favorite Mia Love, is mayor of Saratoga Springs, the first black female mayor in Utah history. If she beats Matheson, she would become the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress and the first African American Mormon lawmaker.

3. North Carolina Rep. Larry Kissell

Rep. Larry Kissell survived the Republican onslaught of 2010 only to see North Carolina’s Republican legislature make his district far more challenging for the Democrat. The GOP took African-American neighborhoods in Charlotte out of the former social studies teacher’s district and added heavily Republican suburban and rural areas. Kissell is stressing his independence (and his vote against President Obama’s health-care reform law) in a district that cast 63 percent of its votes for George W. Bush and 57 percent for John McCain in the past two presidential elections. Romney could carry the district by 15 percentage points in 2012, and that likely would spell doom for Kissell.

4. Georgia Rep. John Barrow

Republicans are confident that Barack Obama will sink four-term Democrat John Barrow, the last remaining white Democrat in the Deep South. After all, the Georgia legislature added significant numbers of rural white voters (a.k.a., Republicans) to a district anchored by the African-American neighborhoods of Savannah and Augusta. Republican nominee Lee Anderson is so confident of winning that he’s refusing to debate Barrow — even though he engaged in 17 candidate forums in the Republican primary and runoff campaigns. Anti-Obama fervor will bring conservatives out to vote in the district — but African-American turnout is likely to be high, as well.

5. Pennsylvania Rep. Mark Critz

Mark Critz skipped the Democratic convention in 2012. That tells you a lot about his view of whether Barack Obama is an asset or a liability in his southwestern Pennsylvania district. Critz narrowly won a 2010 special election to replace the late Jack Murtha and defeated fellow Democratic incumbent Jason Altmire in a bruising 2012 primary in an oddly shaped district concocted by the Republican-dominated Pennsylvania legislature. The new 12th District, which wraps around Pittsburgh, favored John McCain in 2008 by 54 percent to 45 percent. Republicans are confident that their candidate, Keith Rothfus, will get a big boost from anti-Obama sentiment out here in deer hunter territory.

6. Kentucky Rep. Ben Chandler

The rematch in Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District between Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler and Republican challenger Andy Barr could end up as close as their 2010 nail-biter. Democrats say 2012 is not 2010 — and say the incumbent has a double-digit lead in their polls. But Obama’s political machine is weak in Kentucky, and Chandler is bracing for presidential fallout.

7. West Virginia Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin

In West Virginia’s 2012 Democratic presidential primary, a convicted felon serving time in a Texas prison received more than 40 percent of the vote against President Obama. In the Democratic primary. Deep distaste for Obama in Appalachia gives any West Virginia Democrat reason to fret in November. Gov. Earl Ray Tomblin is favored over Republican rival Bill Maloney, who hosted Texas Gov. Rick Perry at a summertime campaign stop. But Democrats aren’t taking anything for granted in a state where Romney is likely to win by more than 20 percentage points.

8. West Virginia Rep. Nick Rahall

The Mountaineer State’s only surviving Democratic House member also isn’t taking anything for granted. A Democratic poll showed veteran incumbent Nick Rahall with a massive lead over Republican Jack Snuffer. But Republicans are hoping that Romney’s coattails will be long — at least in West Virginia.

9. Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown

Ohio’s Senate race seems inextricably tied to the presidential contest. Both President Obama and Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown have opened up statistically significant leads. But Republicans note that even with Romney’s current woes, Josh Mandel is still running within 8 percentage points of the Democratic incumbent. If Romney can turn things around — and if anti-Obama Republicans flood to the polls — Brown could face a close call.

10. Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill

Claire McCaskill’s Republican opponent, Todd Akin, has become the butt of jokes and national ridicule for a string of sexist comments. But he’s still within striking distance of freshman Democrat Claire McCaskill. Mitt Romney is likely to win comfortably in the Show Me State. In a state that elected a dead man to the Senate in 2000, anything is possible.

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