Archive for the ‘2012’ Category

Electoral College Update: Storm response boosts Obama, complicates Romney’s path to 270

Monday, November 5, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)

RICK DUNHAM’S ELECTORAL MAP — November 5, 2012

Welcome to our final Electoral College update. Every Monday since Labor Day, we have analyzed the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states. This week, we’ve added Minnesota, where Mitt Romney has made a heavy last-week investment, to our analysis and have dropped New Mexico, which Romney has abandoned.

The big picture:

President Obama has taken a small lead in polling conducted after Superstorm Sandy with an average poll margin of one-half of one percentage point. Obama is ahead in three of the five nationwide polls conducted after the storm hit, while two were tied.

Obama’s small lead reflects an important change in the dynamics of the race. Last Monday, Romney led in six of the ten previous polls. Now, Obama is ahead in states (and the District of Columbia) with 281 electoral votes — more than enough to win if he just hangs on. Colorado is the only toss-up left on our national map.

Romney has the edge in the southern swing states (Virginia, North Carolina and Florida). Obama is clinging to his campaign-long lead in the industrial heartland (Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), along with Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada. To win, Romney needs to move one of the Midwestern Obama states — Ohio, Wisconsin or Minnesota are his best shots — into his column, or score a major upset in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t voted Republican since 1988.

Romney’s best hope for victory: that all of the polls are wrong and that Republican enthusiasm trumps the pollsters’ turnout models.

National average: Obama +0.5
Electoral College advantage: Obama
Trend: Obama

The battlegrounds:

Colorado Lead: Obama +0.6
Compared to national average: Obama +0.1
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Florida
Lead: Romney +1.4
Compared to national average: Romney +1.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Iowa Lead: Obama +2.5
Compared to national average: Obama +2.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Michigan
Lead: Obama +3.8
Compared to national average: Obama +3.3
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Minnesota
Lead: Obama +5.8
Compared to national average: Obama +5.3
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Nevada
Lead: Obama +2.8
Compared to national average: Obama +2.3
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +1.5
Compared to national average: Obama +1.0
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

North Carolina
Lead: Romney +3.8
Compared to national average: Romney +4.3
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Ohio
Lead: Obama +2.8
Compared to national average: Obama +2.3
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +3.9
Compared to national average: Obama +3.4
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Virginia
Lead: Romney +0.3
Compared to national average: Romney +0.8
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +4.2
Compared to national average: Obama +3.7
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Longshots to watch:
For Obama: Arizona
For Romney: Wisconsin

Spotlight state: Colorado

Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.

Obama schools Romney on ‘horses, bayonets’

Monday, October 22, 2012 by:alex.yap@chron.com (Alex Yap)

During tonight’s presidential debate, Barack Obama hit Mitt Romney on outdated foreign policies that would work – if they were used in another decade. Romney needed to convince voters that he is not stuck in a Cold War mindset, but the president roasted him about his old-fashioned policies, and Twitter immediately took note.

“And the 1980s are now calling to ask for their foreign policy back because, you know, the Cold War’s been over for 20 years,” Obama said. “When it comes to our foreign policy, you seem to want to import the foreign policies of the 1980s, just like the social policies of the 1950s and the economic policies of the 1920s.”

He took it back a bit farther in history when he accused Romney of not understanding how the military works:

“You — you mentioned the Navy, for example, and that we have fewer ships than we did in 1916. Well, Governor, we also have fewer horses and bayonets, because the nature of our military’s changed. We have these things called aircraft carriers where planes land on them. We have these ships that go underwater, nuclear submarines.

And so the question is not a game of Battleship where we’re counting ships. It’s — it’s what are our capabilities.”

Within minutes, #horsesandbayonets was trending worldwide on Twitter.