So maybe you were initially relieved when the high-stakes presidential debates were finished. Maybe you wondered what was the point of the name-calling and mud-slinging that passed for the U.S. Senate debates between U.S. Rep. Chris Murphy and Republican Linda McMahon. But maybe, now, come the weekend with a mere 10 days left before Election Day, you have a hankering for a little public policy and are willing to hear a couple of candidates discussing their visions going forward on the national stage.
Well, you have two chances in the next week, as U.S. Rep. Jim Himes and his Republican challenger Steve Obsitnick debate the big issues in their third and fourth head-to-head debates. The next one is Sunday at 4 p.m. in the Clune Performing Arts Center at Wilton High School, 395 Danbury Road/Route 7. It’s free. It’s handicapped accessible. Get there a little early and write a question for the candidates. It’s sponsored by 12 local area chapters of League of Women Voters: Bridgeport, Wilton, Weston, Redding, Ridgefield, New Canaan, Westport, Norwalk, Stamford, Greenwich, Darien and Fairfield. It will be moderated by Kay Maxwell of Stamford, former national president of the LWV.
Then on Friday, November 2, Himes, of Greenwich and Obsitnik, of Westport, will participate in their final debate, in a 10 a.m. event in the Bridgeport Holiday Inn sponsored by the AARP.
After wilting under the heat of Mitt Romney’s attacks in the first presidential debate in Denver, Barack Obama is hoping to rebound with an improved performance at their second encounter on Tuesday.
Obama’s year-long lead over Romney in national presidential polls disappeared in the week after the first debate. Democrats were heartened by Vice President Joe Biden’s aggressive performance against Republican Paul Ryan last Thursday, but post-debate polls found that few minds were changed by the Centre College session.
“For Romney and Obama it’s a night of role reversal,” said Lawrence Levy, a political analyst at Hofstra University, which is hosting the debate. “Two weeks ago it was Romney who had to slow his opponent’s momentum, lift the spirits of his base supporters and look presidential to the few moderate swing voters. On Tuesday night it’s Obama who has to perform those tricks while Romney just needs to keep his mo’ going.”
So how do they achieve those objectives? Here are five things each candidate is hoping to accomplish at Hofstra:
OBAMA
1. Bounce back.
Democrats are dreaming of a 1984 replay, when President Ronald Reagan responded to a poor showing in the first presidential debate with a performance for the ages in debate number two. “The second debate was crucial for Ronald Reagan in 1984 and and this could have the same impact,” said Dotty Lynch, a professor of public communication at American University. “If Obama bounces back he might be able to wipe out the gains Romney made.” At a minimum, Obama needs to hold his own against Romney, press the attack and effectively respond to the Republican’s cogent critiques.
2. Show a little energy.
Look alive, Mister President! Obama’s body language was awful during the first debate. He often looked down, he rarely gazed at his opponent and he only occasionally talked directly to the television audience. Obama needs to convince the public that he really wants a second term. “President Obama simply cannot afford a repeat of his performance the first time out,” said David Lanoue, a political scientist at Columbus State University in Georgia. “He needs to show more energy and passion.” But not too much. It would be a mistake to overcompensate for a dull debate in Denver with an overcaffeinated outing in New York.
3. Tell us about the future.
Romney has his list of five economic priorities for the next four years. Obama must have something more specific than raising taxes on the richest Americans. Yes, we know you inherited an economic mess. But what will you do for us if we stick with you? “Obama must outline a vision for what his next four years will look like,” said University of Texas political scientist Sean Theriault. “While he may have attempted this at his convention speech, but it wasn’t a vision that got many non-Democrats excited. He must give the independent voter a reason to opt for him instead of the newly energized Romney campaign.”
4. Lay out a contrasting vision.
It’s not enough to say “middle class” 19 times, as Obama did in Denver. “In a town hall meeting he has to show he understands the concerns of average people and is not just there to score debating points,” said Lynch. “He also needs to convince people — in the hall but mostly in the TV audience — that he has better solutions for jobs and the economy than does Romney.”
5. Control the issues agenda.
In Denver Romney set the tone and controlled the agenda. Obama must make his points at Hofstra, whatever the question. “President Obama must find a way to interject favorable issues like the (Romney) ’47 percent’ comments, the auto bailout and tax returns into his answers at the debate on Tuesday night,” said Aaron Kall, director of debate at the University of Michigan. “These were noticeably absent during the Denver debate, which was largely fought on the turf of Gov. Romney.” One must-discuss subject for Obama: Issues of importance to working women such as pay equity, college financial aid and Republican-backed restrictions on contraception.
ROMNEY
1. Regain the momentum.
The Republican nominee erased Obama’s national lead following the Denver debate. Democrats stabilized after the vice presidential debate. Romney’s goal is another victory that would convince enough undecided voters to give him a narrow majority on Nov. 6. A draw is OK. A clear defeat could reverse the gains of recent weeks. “Given his impressive performance, Gov. Romney will have higher expectations this time and must deliver,” said Kall. “Gov. Romney needs another strong performance to convince swing state undecided voters to at least give him one final consideration.”
2. Focus on economic solutions to average people’s problems.
In recent weeks, Romney has been trying to humanize himself by telling stories of his interactions with average Americans, particularly those facing economic or medical crises. The town-hall format gives him an opportunity to relate to these “real people” in front of an audience in the tens of millions. “Romney’s number one goal should be to show he connects with average people,” said Lynch. “He made up some ground on that in the first debate but there are still doubts about how much he understands what average people are going through and has ways to make their lives better.” To do that, said Texas GOP state Rep. Stefani Carter, “He must continue to make the case that he will turn around the economy.”
3. How will it play in Ohio?
It doesn’t matter how it plays in Peoria, Ill. — the mythical Middle American town — this year. It matters how it plays in Parma, the blue-collar Cleveland suburb that is a key to victory in a key swing state. Romney needs to convince Joe the Welder in Parma that the economic future will be brighter in a Republican Washington. A sign of Romney’s blue-collar blues: The NewsmaxZogby poll released Monday found that NASCAR fans continue to favor Obama by 48 percent to 44 percent.
4. Appeal to independent voters.
Romney took a lead among independent voters after the first debate. That’s the good news for the Republican nominee. The bad news is that the higher level of support comes with higher expectations. A Pew Research Center poll released Monday found that independents expect Romney to win Tuesday’s debate, 42 percent to 31 percent. That’s a reversal from the first debate, where independents thought Obama would win by a 44 percent to 28 percent margin. Romney “must convince them that competence is more important than likability,” said Theriault. “John Kerry won the competence debate (in 2004), but lost the war due to his lack of likability. He doesn’t want to be another Massachusetts candidate that couldn’t relate to the average American.”
5. Don’t lose your cool.
No $10,000 bets — even if Obama gets under his skin like Rick Perry did in that infamous Republican primary debate moment. Team Obama will try to rattle Romney and force him into an error. The Republican nominee must remain disciplined and unflappable.
Historically, says Emory University debate coach Bill Newnam, “vice presidential debates have not mattered.”
But in the aftermath of President Obama’s disastrous performance in last Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, which helped Republican Mitt Romney erase the Democratic incumbent’s yearlong lead in the polls, “the stakes in Thursday night’s debate are astronomical for both candidates,” notes University of Michigan debate director Aaron Kall.
Here’s what Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan need to do during their encounter at Centre College in Danville, Ky.:
JOE BIDEN
1. Stop the bleeding.
Before the first debate, the Obama-Biden ticket was leading in the RealClearPolitics poll index by an average of 4 percentage points. Tuesday, for the first time in 2012, Romney and Ryan took the lead. “Obama didn’t just hurt himself, he hurt the brand,” said independent pollster John Zogby. “There’s a lot of pressure on Biden. He has to get them back on track because they’re bleeding now.”
2. Attack, attack, attack! (But in a systematic way.)
Obama found himself on the defensive from the first moments of the first debate. His running mate must seize the offensive and relentlessly critique Ryan’s record as chairman of the House Budget Committee and Team Romney’s economic and foreign policy proposals. “It’s the vice presidential candidate’s role to go out and attack the other side,” said Sherri Greenberg, director of the Center for Politics and Governance at the University of Texas’ Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs. One cautionary note: It’s possible to be too aggressive. (Examples: Al Gore invading George W. Bush’s space at their first debate in 2000. Or Jimmy Carter’s serial attacks on Ronald Reagan in 1980, ending with Reagan’s retort, “there you go again.”)
3. Win the budget/tax battle.
Biden needs to convince average Americans that Ryan’s past support for cuts in middle-class entitlements such as college financial aid and eldercare could hurt them personally. “Biden wants to remind people of the Ryan budget and the impact on their lives,” said American University political communication professor Dotty Lynch, “especially if Medicare is changed and government programs like Medicaid and student loans are cut.”
4. Look like the only grown-up on the stage on international issues.
Joe Biden has been a player on foreign policy issues since Paul Ryan was, well, three years old. The vice president needs to use his knowledge and record, as senator and vice president, to his advantage. “He will challenge Ryan on his lack of experience and also criticize Romney,” said Jim Granato, director of the Hobby Center for Public Affairs at the University of Houston.
5. Don’t be a bully.
It’s fine to be Fightin’ Joe, champion of the middle class. It’s not OK to be Mr. McNasty or Mr. McDirty. Americans don’t mind some tough, substantive exchanges. But personal attacks or relentless negativism could backfire and make Ryan a more sympathetic figure.
6. Don’t commit a major gaffe that will dominate the headlines whatever else happens in the debate.
Republicans are quick to note that Joe Biden is a human gaffe machine. He can terrify his handlers by saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. A whopper during Thursday’s big showdown would definitely be the wrong time. “Joe Biden must be ‘gaffe-free’ and aggressive,” said Steven E. Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College. “His job is to reveal the shortcomings of the Romney-Ryan approach far more clearly than the president did in his first debate.”
PAUL RYAN
1. Keep the momentum going.
A win or a tie is fine for the Wisconsin congressman. He just wants to make sure that he doesn’t do anything that reverses the gains created by Romney’s aggressive, self-assured performance in the first debate. “The task for the Romney campaign is to maintain the momentum generated by the first presidential debate,” said Schier. “That means Paul Ryan cannot afford to lose the debate.”
2. Avoid wonkishness.
Like President Obama, Ryan can be professorial and wonkish. He needs to ditch the green eyeshades and talk about budget and tax choices in a way that resonate with average Americans. “Congressman Ryan’s specialty is giving power-point presentations that involve a lot of data and visual aids,” said Kall. “He will be without those aids during the debate and must find a way to verbally integrate this information.”
3. Pay attention to details.
Ryan tripped up recently when Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace tried to pin him down on details of the Romney-Ryan tax cut plan. He has said, in various venues, that the issue is too complicated to discuss on radio or television. That excuse won’t fly during a 90-minute vice presidential debate. “Ryan is going to be on the defensive,” said Newnam. “He’s going to try to explain how things add up.” How can you cut everybody’s tax rates by 20 percent, cut business taxes and end up with a revenue-neutral tax plan? Ryan needs a concise, Romney-like answer to the all-but-certain question.
4. Fight to a draw (or win) on Medicare and Social Security.
Biden is sure to attack Ryan for proposing to replace Medicare with a voucher program for Americans born after 1957. And for supporting former President George W. Bush’s plan to partially privatize Social Security. Over-65 voters could well decide the results in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. And baby boomers are anxious about any possible changes in their government retirement plans. Ryan doesn’t have to win the argument with Biden. But he has to avoid a clear defeat.
5. Sound competent on foreign policy
Ryan is an undisputed expert on budget matters, but he has not been a major player on international issues. He needs to show a nuanced understanding of geopolitical matters. And he must avoid any misstatements on foreign policy. “Ryan will have to demonstrate he can articulate — and is informed on — foreign policy, given Biden’s large advantage in foreign policy experience,” said Granato.
6. Look like he could be a president.
The gravitas thing. Dan Quayle flunked this test against Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 (“you’re no Jack Kennedy”) and then against Al Gore in 1992. (Of course, Quayle and George Bush were elected in ’88 anyway.) Ryan is no Dan Quayle, but he does have questions to answer. “He’s only 42,” said Zogby. “He’s got to show that he belongs there.”
