Hits:
1. The debates, as a whole. The numbers consistently showed a victory for the president in Monday’s final debate. And it may well have given Obama a point or two swing in the ultra-tight race, which could actually be significant. But did Romney do enough to avoid losing all of the gains he made when Obama slept through the first debate? Without a doubt. Advantage: Romney.
2. The politics of racial polarization, Part 1. Mitt Romney, accordiing to the latest Washington Post/ABC poll, has a 23-point lead among white voters. Contrast that with last time around, when polls around this time gave McCain a 7-point advantage. McCain ended up winning the white vote by 12 points over Obama, validating theories that many white voters don’t admit heir antipathy to Obama on racial grounds, to pollsters or anyone else, but vote that way. So what’s the real spread this time? 25 to 30 points? Meanwhile, Obama has a lead among black voters generaly acknowledged to be greater than 90-10, and a lead among Latino voters that recent polls place at around 75-25. Ultimately, this hyperpolarized scenario is a loser for the Republicans. But not, perhaps, in two weeks. The huge advantage among white voters is enormous for Romney, and gives him a path to victory, particularly if he can maintain it in swing states, which is far from clear. Advantage: Romney.
3: The money. Capping what has been an excellent October for Romney after the Obama DDD (Denver Debate Debacle), the challenger outraised Obama by some $21 million in the first two weeks of the month. While the Obama campaign is unlikely to run out of money — both sides are now officially rolling in it, having raised close to a billion dollars apiece — the fundraising edge was a symbol of the increased enthusiasm that the Republican challenger is enjoying. Advantage: Romney.
4. The electoral map: It is what it is. Despite the aforementioned enthusiasm, the numbers still don’t look that good for Team Romney. Closely watched poll-analyzer Nate Silver, who authors the New York Times’ excellent 538 blog, actually sees Obama’s chances of winning higher than ever, at 73 percent as the week came to a close. The fact is that Obama clings to a lead by almost all accounts in Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan, and that is almost an insurmountable firewall for the challenger. Also, whether from the final debate or for other reasons, Romney’s “mittmentum” seemed to have slowed or even reversed nationwide by midweek according to the tracking polls. Advantage: Obama.
5. The Economy. The GDP grew at 2 percent in the third quarter, we found out Friday. It was a report with something for everyone. Obama supporters pointed to the indication that the recovery is stable and durable. Romney supporters said the report was fresh evidence that things just aren’t improving fast enough. But it’s hard to put a negative spin on basically positive news. Advantage: Obama.
Misses:
1. Missionary stew in Dubuque. H.L. Mencken, the Sage of Baltimore, once remarked on the subject of political pandering: “If a politician found he had cannibals among his constituents, he would promise them missionaries for dinner.” Rience Priebus just promised Iowans another tasty pastoral banquet in 2016. The head of the Republican National Committee said Thursday he would do all he could to preserve Iowa’s first-in-the-nation primary status in 2016. Of course both parties in this squeaker are eying Iowa’s paltry six electoral votes with undisguised lust. But why should Iowa play an enormous role in determining the presidency? The fiction that Iowa is representative of the country at large is just that, fiction. And not only do they not deserve to be the deciders, they do a terrible job of it, with an arcane caucus system that, in 2012, gave Mitt Romney a crucial and, as it turns out, incorrect victory and claim of “momentum.” While disadvantaging everyone else, Advantage: Iowa.
2. The politics of racial polarization, Part 2. On Thursday, Republican Colin Powell endorsed President Obama, citing his leadership on health care, on the economy, and in foreign affairs. Romney campaign co-chairman John Sununu said he thought there was another reason Powell made the endorsement — the President’s race. Friday morning, he retreated from that observation, but the bell was not unrung. It was another through-the-looking-glass moment in a campaign that’s been full of them — is there no depth we will not reach? (I found real irony in that one of the most surreal things I saw at the Republican Convention in Tampa was Sununu as one of the party’s two principal speakers at a Spanish-language press conference for Hispanic media. Is that really as close as Republicans could come to someone who could speak to Latino issues in Spanish?) The question of how Sununu’s race-baiting on Powell will play is an interesting one. While Sununu’s comments will surely please the ultraright ”base,” they will equally irritate the Democratic base. The cynical calculation is that it was backlash-proof because black voters are already massively motivated. But it had to hurt with white voters who admire Powell and actually listened to what he said in his endorsement. Advantage: Obama.
3. Rape and God, redux. Indiana Tea-Party senatorial candidate Richard Mourdock added to the week’s surreal landscape — not to mention joining the GOP’s honor roll of man-splainin’ white guys who know all about how women’s bodies work, and how rape fits into God’s wonderful and mysterious plans for us. Romney refused to answer questions about Mourdock, also refusing to pull the ad in which he personally endorsed Mourdock, which started running a day before Mourdock’s controversial statement that even when a pregnancy is the result of a rape, it’s God’s will. While Mourdock says he has no doubt he has gained support since the statement, it can’t play well nationally and comes at a particularly terrible juncture, as the GOP seemed to be making strides to narrow or eliminate Obama’s advantage among women. And the same establishment Republicans Mourdock scorned when he beat Richard Lugar in the primary were forced to come to his defense. You feel for John Cornyn, who’s running the Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. He can’t keep throwing Senate candidates over the side, so he had to hold his nose and be supportive. Advantage: Obama.
4. The Donald. Speaking of the surreal, here was Donald Trump again, doing goofy things. This time it was his $5 million offer Wednesday for Obama’s college transcripts and passport. Huh? Obama had the last and best word: “This all dates back to when we were growing up together in Kenya,” he told Letterman. Advantage: Obama.
5. Just don’t talk about it, maybe no one will notice. Quick, what’s the major issue neither candidate will come close to addressing? Okay, besides gun control? Right — climate change. The title of Al Gore’s polemic on the subject, “An Inconvenient Truth,” comes to mind. Whether they think it’s a bunch of junk-science hooey or it’s one of the most urgent policy issues we face — and there aren’t many more options than those two — don’t the candidates owe the American people something better than the ostrich act we’ve seen on the subject so far? Yes. Will they get it? No. Advantage: Nobody.
