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Six things that Joe Biden, Paul Ryan must do in their VP debate

Tuesday, October 9, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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Historically, says Emory University debate coach Bill Newnam, “vice presidential debates have not mattered.”

But in the aftermath of President Obama’s disastrous performance in last Wednesday night’s first presidential debate, which helped Republican Mitt Romney erase the Democratic incumbent’s yearlong lead in the polls, “the stakes in Thursday night’s debate are astronomical for both candidates,” notes University of Michigan debate director Aaron Kall.

Here’s what Vice President Joe Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan need to do during their encounter at Centre College in Danville, Ky.:

JOE BIDEN

1. Stop the bleeding.

Before the first debate, the Obama-Biden ticket was leading in the RealClearPolitics poll index by an average of 4 percentage points. Tuesday, for the first time in 2012, Romney and Ryan took the lead. “Obama didn’t just hurt himself, he hurt the brand,” said independent pollster John Zogby. “There’s a lot of pressure on Biden. He has to get them back on track because they’re bleeding now.”

2. Attack, attack, attack! (But in a systematic way.)

Obama found himself on the defensive from the first moments of the first debate. His running mate must seize the offensive and relentlessly critique Ryan’s record as chairman of the House Budget Committee and Team Romney’s economic and foreign policy proposals. “It’s the vice presidential candidate’s role to go out and attack the other side,” said Sherri Greenberg, director of the Center for Politics and Governance at the University of Texas’ Lyndon B. Johnson School of Public Affairs. One cautionary note: It’s possible to be too aggressive. (Examples: Al Gore invading George W. Bush’s space at their first debate in 2000. Or Jimmy Carter’s serial attacks on Ronald Reagan in 1980, ending with Reagan’s retort, “there you go again.”)

3. Win the budget/tax battle.

Biden needs to convince average Americans that Ryan’s past support for cuts in middle-class entitlements such as college financial aid and eldercare could hurt them personally. “Biden wants to remind people of the Ryan budget and the impact on their lives,” said American University political communication professor Dotty Lynch, “especially if Medicare is changed and government programs like Medicaid and student loans are cut.”

4. Look like the only grown-up on the stage on international issues.

Joe Biden has been a player on foreign policy issues since Paul Ryan was, well, three years old. The vice president needs to use his knowledge and record, as senator and vice president, to his advantage. “He will challenge Ryan on his lack of experience and also criticize Romney,” said Jim Granato, director of the Hobby Center for Public Affairs at the University of Houston.

5. Don’t be a bully.

It’s fine to be Fightin’ Joe, champion of the middle class. It’s not OK to be Mr. McNasty or Mr. McDirty. Americans don’t mind some tough, substantive exchanges. But personal attacks or relentless negativism could backfire and make Ryan a more sympathetic figure.

6. Don’t commit a major gaffe that will dominate the headlines whatever else happens in the debate.

Republicans are quick to note that Joe Biden is a human gaffe machine. He can terrify his handlers by saying the wrong thing at the wrong time. A whopper during Thursday’s big showdown would definitely be the wrong time. “Joe Biden must be ‘gaffe-free’ and aggressive,” said Steven E. Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College. “His job is to reveal the shortcomings of the Romney-Ryan approach far more clearly than the president did in his first debate.”

PAUL RYAN

1. Keep the momentum going.

A win or a tie is fine for the Wisconsin congressman. He just wants to make sure that he doesn’t do anything that reverses the gains created by Romney’s aggressive, self-assured performance in the first debate. “The task for the Romney campaign is to maintain the momentum generated by the first presidential debate,” said Schier. “That means Paul Ryan cannot afford to lose the debate.”

2. Avoid wonkishness.

Like President Obama, Ryan can be professorial and wonkish. He needs to ditch the green eyeshades and talk about budget and tax choices in a way that resonate with average Americans. “Congressman Ryan’s specialty is giving power-point presentations that involve a lot of data and visual aids,” said Kall. “He will be without those aids during the debate and must find a way to verbally integrate this information.”

3. Pay attention to details.

Ryan tripped up recently when Fox News Sunday host Chris Wallace tried to pin him down on details of the Romney-Ryan tax cut plan. He has said, in various venues, that the issue is too complicated to discuss on radio or television. That excuse won’t fly during a 90-minute vice presidential debate. “Ryan is going to be on the defensive,” said Newnam. “He’s going to try to explain how things add up.” How can you cut everybody’s tax rates by 20 percent, cut business taxes and end up with a revenue-neutral tax plan? Ryan needs a concise, Romney-like answer to the all-but-certain question.

4. Fight to a draw (or win) on Medicare and Social Security.

Biden is sure to attack Ryan for proposing to replace Medicare with a voucher program for Americans born after 1957. And for supporting former President George W. Bush’s plan to partially privatize Social Security. Over-65 voters could well decide the results in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. And baby boomers are anxious about any possible changes in their government retirement plans. Ryan doesn’t have to win the argument with Biden. But he has to avoid a clear defeat.

5. Sound competent on foreign policy

Ryan is an undisputed expert on budget matters, but he has not been a major player on international issues. He needs to show a nuanced understanding of geopolitical matters. And he must avoid any misstatements on foreign policy. “Ryan will have to demonstrate he can articulate — and is informed on — foreign policy, given Biden’s large advantage in foreign policy experience,” said Granato.

6. Look like he could be a president.

The gravitas thing. Dan Quayle flunked this test against Lloyd Bentsen in 1988 (“you’re no Jack Kennedy”) and then against Al Gore in 1992. (Of course, Quayle and George Bush were elected in ’88 anyway.) Ryan is no Dan Quayle, but he does have questions to answer. “He’s only 42,” said Zogby. “He’s got to show that he belongs there.”

5 hits and 5 misses on the campaign trail, Oct. 1-5

Friday, October 5, 2012 by:david.mccumber@hearstdc.com (David McCumber, Washington Bureau Chief)
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Hits:

1. Romney emerges from coma, a changed man. Romney had a great debate. The candidate who was coming under increasing fire from his own party for running a lackluster, almost leisurely campaign, even as a damaging video put him seriously behind in key swing states, has been revitalized by his clear win. The campaign has shaken off the smell of pessimism, the fellow Republicans who were bashing Romney are cheering now. There’s a bill coming due — see below — but as this week ends things are looking up in a major way. It’s astonishing that Romney would have been given such an opportunity by Obama, who either got some very bad advice or was unable to follow good advice. Pollster John Zogby put Obama’s performance in perspective: “If Obama had been running against himself, the race would have gotten tighter.” Advantage: Romney.

2. A surprisingly good jobs report. Good news is never unwelcome, but good news on Friday morning was particularly well-timed for a president who had inexplicably damaged himself 36 hours earlier. The jobs news was outstanding on several fronts: Weak July and August hiring gains were given new luster by major adjustments as new data were reported — and most of all, the most-watched labor statistic, the jobless rate, plummeted  in September from 8.1 to 7.8 percent.  No single monthly report is going to change the campaign’s trajectory, but it does put some wind beneath Obama’s wings and remove a key Romney talking point that “we’re in the XXth straight month of 8+ percent unemployment. Advantage: Obama.

3.  Winners get paid. The Romney campaign joyously dialed for dollars Thursday, feeding hungrily from the win by winning over donors who had thought the cause was all but lost. The debate will be a fundraising bonanza for the campaign, which sorely needed the influx of cash after being outraised over the past two months. Advantage: Romney.

4. Romney’s family takes a more public role. A couple of weeks ago, Ann Romney spoke out about Republicans taking shots at her husband’s performance as a candidate.  This week, she talked in an interview with CNN before the debate about giving her husband emotional support. And she’s going to fill in for Good Morning America host Robin Roberts for a day Oct. 10. Also, Politico reports, son Tagg is taking a larger role in advocating his father’s candidacy. The family involvement reinforces the view of Mitt Romney as a family guy that the campaign wants and needs. Advantage: Romney.

5. A swing-state voter ID law is stymied. On Tuesday, a Pennsylvania judge blocked the key part of a controversial Voter ID law in Pennsylvania — and as a result registered voters will not have to show IDs. It’s the latest in a string of victories in the pushback against tough voter ID legislation. Laws in South Carolina, Wisconsin and Texas have been similarly blocked. In Florida and Ohio, attempts to limit early voting have been largely unsuccessful.  Advantage: Voters.

Misses:

1.A monumental flip-flop boxes Romney in. Here’s the bill the challenger  must pay: Defending himself from the only real attack Obama mounted Wednesday night — the voodoo economics of his specifics-free tax plan — the candidate made himself sound reasonable and middle-class friendly. At the same time he made the mathematics of his position all the more confounding. Plus, of course, what he said was wildly different from what he’s said before. Romney said in a February 2012 primary debate, “We’re going to cut taxes on everyone across the country by 20  percent, including the top 1 percent.” Wednesday, he said, “I’m not going to reduce the share of taxes paid by high-income people.” He added, “My plan is to bring down rates but also bring down deductions and exemptions and credits at the same time so the revenue stays in.”  Is it a tax-cut advocate? Is it a deficit hawk? No, it’s a candidate speaking out of both sides of his mouth. Advantage: Obama.

2. An ill-timed mea culpa. On Thursday, Romney turned to Fox News to try to fix a big hole in the campaign boat — the 47 percent remark captured on the fund-raiser video. He told Sean Hannity that in a campaign, sometimes you say things you shouldn’t, and “in this case I said something that’s just completely wrong.” Does that mean all the tycoons at the Boca Raton fund-raiser get their money back? And a bigger question: Since Obama utterly failed to bring up this gaffe, which probably has more to do with turning the campaign against Romney than anything, why self-inflict? This didn’t seem like the best time to bring this up and remind people of why they were uncomfortable with you. Advantage: Obama.

3. The missed opportunities stack up. Obama failed in so many ways Wednesday, causing so much damage that needs to be repaired,  that his campaign is going to look like a FEMA operation for the next two weeks. And it puts massive pressure on him to perform in round 2. In a real sense the stumble has turned him from a frontrunning incumbent with an air of inevitability into a wounded challenger. Plan  A – non-engagement — was a disaster. Now, Plan B carries the risk that he will overreact and turn people off by being too aggressive. But the dirty work must be done; if he lets Romney get away cleanly with the huge pivot he took Wednesday, he could very easily lose all the ground he gained at and after the conventions. Advantage: Romney.

4. Romney gives PBS the bird. His base may have loved him taking a swing at PBS, anathema to all right-thinking right-wingers, but it was the most ridiculous moment of Romney’s debate performance. “I love Big Bird,” he said, but he’d cut the government subsidy to PBS rather than “borrow money from China to pay for it.” Please. It’s great to get a specific thing that would be cut — such declarations have been too rare — but something that amonts to .00012% of the budget seems like an odd place to start. Besides — you don’t tread on Superman’s cape, and you don’t mess with Big Bird. The best two delayed- reaction ripostes from the Obama campaign Thursday: “Thank goodness somebody’s finally getting tough with Big Bird” and “He wouldn’t crack down on Wall Street, but he’s cracking down on Sesame Street?” Advantage: Obama.

5. Spare me the conspiracy theories — it’s a jobs report. Instead of being pleased that hiring appears to be on the upswing, some Republicans Friday darkly assumed that either “a lot of Democrats are lying about having jobs” or the Bureau of Labor Statistics cooked the books to make the President look good. Ex-GE CEO Jack Welch actually posited this: “Unvelievable jobs numbers .. .these Chicago guys will do anything .. can’t debate so change numbers,” he Tweeted.  Jack, go sit in that empty chair with Clint in the “crochety old loon” corner. All this does is remove credibility from conservative arguments. Advantage: Obama.