Archive for the ‘Pew Research Center’ Category

From the polls to the president: which presidential polls were the most accurate

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
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Even as the first returns started rolling in, it was a tight presidential race to call. And with an election this close, polling projections for the national popular vote were tightly grouped, varying by five percentage points or less.

In the end, President Barack Obama won the popular vote with 50.4 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 48. 1 percent as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. Less than 3 million votes made the difference.

IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research and National Journal all projected Obama’s popular vote within 1 percent. Each is ranked next based on how accurately it placed Romney.

Most polls underestimated Obama’s victory. FOX News was the worst with a -4.4 difference, although it also underestimated Romney’s strength.

Nate Silver, who accurately predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, had them all running in circles. This year his mathematical models based on a conglomerate of polls won him a perfect score despite ongoing criticisms of his methodology.

Here’s a breakdown of which polls were dead on and which ones were duds:

1. IBD/TIPP, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 50, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney +.9

2T. ABC News/Washington Post, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

2T. Pew Research, Oct. 31-Nov. 3

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

4. National Journal, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +5. Obama 50, Romney 45

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -3.1

5. CNN/Opinion Research, Nov. 2-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 49, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +.9

6. Gallup, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 49, Romney 50

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +1.9

7T. Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun. Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 48, Romney 48

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -.1

7T. Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 48, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney +.9

9T. CBS News/New York Times, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

9T. NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1-3

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

10. Politico/GWU/Battleground, Nov. 4-5

Prediction: Tie. Obama 47, Romney 47

Off by:  Obama -3.4, Romney -1.1

11. FOX News, Oct. 28-30

Prediction: Tie. Obama 46, Romney 46

Off by: Obama -4.4, Romney -2.1

Poll: Suburbanites split between Obama and Romney, president has edge among ‘empty nesters’

Saturday, November 3, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
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Suburbia hasn’t been spared the political split that has the nation in a gridlock with less than a week before the election.

President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are on the same block with suburban voters, tied with 48 percent of likely voters each, according to a National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University. Analysis of a Pew Research Center poll by American University and Patchwork Nation shows Obama has a one point lead in suburbia overall.

Although Romney has a 5-point lead among suburban independents at 50 percent to Obama’s 45 percent. It’s different turf in urban communities, where Obama is leading 55-39 percent among independents.

The president has a slight edge with suburban undecideds, the Hofstra University study shows.

About 11 percent of those living in hamlet neighborhoods are swing voters, a sizable chunk that could make or break either candidate’s success with the demographic. Five percent lean toward Obama compared to Romney’s three percent.

The monied ‘burbs, highly educated and wealthier than the national average, house a large percentage of the population and are crucial come Tuesday. The communities strongly favored Obama during the 2008 campaign, according to Patchwork Nation data.

But it’s been a hard four years for suburbanites. Romney managed to peel away 14 percent of residents who voted for Obama in 2008, according to the Hofstra University study. Only four percent of John McCain backers now are supporting the president.

The president also might have an advantage among “emptying nest” counties, enclaves to the elderly and baby boomers, according to the American University and Patchwork Nation analysis.

They flocked to President George Bush in 2004, favoring him 56 percent to John Kerry’s 43 percent. This time around it’s another story. It’s tighter, but Obama has an 11 point edge with 52 percent compared to Romney’s 41 percent.

Many havens for retirees and the elderly are in swing states, key in winning a tight election where leads are so close. Emptying nest counties make up 11 percent of the Ohio population, 20 percent of Wisconsin’s and 32 percent of Iowa’s.

Media bias? Study finds that Romney has received more favorable coverage than Obama since first debate

Friday, November 2, 2012 by:max.kranl@chron.com (Max Kranl)
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The tone of media coverage of President Obama and Mitt Romney changed dramatically after the first presidential debate, a new study by Pew Research Center has documented.

Before the Denver debate, which voters overwhelmingly believed that Romney won, 22 percent of all stories about Obama had a positive tone, while the ones about Romney were positive only half as often.

Then things changed.

As Romney gained in the polls in the aftermath of the debate, he got substantially more favorable media coverage: 20 percent positive, 50 percent mixed and 30 percent negative. Obama’s coverage suddenly became more negative. Nearly three times as many Obama-related stories had a negative tone than a positive one: 13 percent positive, 51 percent mixed and 36 percent negative.

Overall, however, Obama still has received slightly more favorable coverage this year. The reason, Pew discovered, is that much of the TV coverage of the campaign involved polling and the daily “horse race.” Since Obama led for much of the year, much of the positive coverage reflected his advantage in the polls.

Excluding such horse-race stories, the tone of media coverage was very similar for both candidates, Pew found.

When looking at the different media types, more distinctions become clear. The so-called mainstream media maintained a pretty balanced tone in their coverage, Pew reported. But the tone tended to get more negative with blogs and social media. Facebook and Twitter posts and conversations were particularly negative — with Romney at a big disadvantage there.

Network news viewers received a different narrative about the candidates depending on when they watched. The morning shows on CBS, ABC and NBC set up a tone that favored Romney more. On the evening news shows, though, Obama was better off.

Cable coverage on Fox News was far more negative toward the president than its positive stories. Still, Pew found that MSNBC was even more one-sided: against Romney.

Slideshow: How the American electorate has changed, 2008 to 2012

Monday, October 29, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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One big reason the 2012 presidential election is so close is that the electorate has changed a lot since Barack Obama won a comfortably victory over John McCain in 2008.

The good folks at the Pew Research Center have compiled a slide show identifying some of the key changes in America over the past four years. They include changes among key voting blocs, shifting attitudes on issues and radical changes in the way we receive political news and information.

Among the major shifts: greater suspicion of government, stronger GOP support among white men and non-Hispanic Catholics and a heavy reliance on social media to receive campaign updates.

Check out this Prezi presentation for the full report:

Pew Research on the Presidential Campaigns on Prezi