Archive for the ‘polling’ Category

From the polls to the president: which presidential polls were the most accurate

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
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Even as the first returns started rolling in, it was a tight presidential race to call. And with an election this close, polling projections for the national popular vote were tightly grouped, varying by five percentage points or less.

In the end, President Barack Obama won the popular vote with 50.4 percent to Republican candidate Mitt Romney’s 48. 1 percent as of 4 p.m. Wednesday. Less than 3 million votes made the difference.

IBD/TIPP, ABC News/Washington Post, Pew Research and National Journal all projected Obama’s popular vote within 1 percent. Each is ranked next based on how accurately it placed Romney.

Most polls underestimated Obama’s victory. FOX News was the worst with a -4.4 difference, although it also underestimated Romney’s strength.

Nate Silver, who accurately predicted 49 of 50 states in 2008, had them all running in circles. This year his mathematical models based on a conglomerate of polls won him a perfect score despite ongoing criticisms of his methodology.

Here’s a breakdown of which polls were dead on and which ones were duds:

1. IBD/TIPP, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 50, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney +.9

2T. ABC News/Washington Post, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

2T. Pew Research, Oct. 31-Nov. 3

Prediction: Obama +3. Obama 50, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -1.1

4. National Journal, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +5. Obama 50, Romney 45

Off by: Obama -.4, Romney -3.1

5. CNN/Opinion Research, Nov. 2-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 49, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +.9

6. Gallup, Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 49, Romney 50

Off by: Obama -1.4, Romney +1.9

7T. Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun. Nov. 1-4

Prediction: Tie. Obama 48, Romney 48

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -.1

7T. Rasmussen Reports, Nov. 3-5

Prediction: Romney +1. Obama 48, Romney 49

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney +.9

9T. CBS News/New York Times, Oct. 25-28

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

9T. NBC News/Wall Street Journal, Nov. 1-3

Prediction: Obama +1. Obama 48, Romney 47

Off by: Obama -2.4, Romney -1.1

10. Politico/GWU/Battleground, Nov. 4-5

Prediction: Tie. Obama 47, Romney 47

Off by:  Obama -3.4, Romney -1.1

11. FOX News, Oct. 28-30

Prediction: Tie. Obama 46, Romney 46

Off by: Obama -4.4, Romney -2.1

Electoral College Update: Obama has small but decisive lead heading into final weekend

Friday, November 2, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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RICK DUNHAM’S ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP — November 2, 2012

Welcome to a special edition of our weekly Electoral College update. We’ve added a final Friday update to our every-Monday Electoral College map, which analyzes the latest poll results from the 12  states both campaigns targeted as of Labor Day. We let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

President Obama has taken the narrowest of leads in the aftermath of Superstorm Sandy with an average poll lead of one-tenth of one percentage point. Obama is ahead in five of the ten most recent nationwide polls, Mitt Romney leads in two and three are tied.

The shift is slow but noticeable. On Monday, Romney led in six of the ten most recent polls. Obama has leads in states (and the District of Columbia) with 277 electoral votes — more than enough to win if he just hangs on.

Romney has the edge in the southern swing states (Virginia, North Carolina and Florida), along with Colorado. Obama is clinging to his campaign-long lead in the industrial heartland (Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania), along with Iowa and Nevada. To win, Romney needs to move one of the Midwestern Obama states — Ohio, Wisconsin or Minnesota are his best shots — into his column, or score a major upset in Pennsylvania, which hasn’t voted Republican since 1988.

National average: Obama +0.1
Electoral College advantage: Obama
Trend: Obama

The battlegrounds:

Colorado Lead: Obama +0.9
Compared to national average: Obama +0.8
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Florida
Lead: Romney +1.2
Compared to national average: Romney +1.1
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Iowa Lead: Obama +2.0
Compared to national average: Obama +1.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Michigan
Lead: Obama +3.0
Compared to national average: Obama +2.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Nevada
Lead: Obama +2.7
Compared to national average: Obama +2.6
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +2.0
Compared to national average: Obama +1.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Mexico
Lead: Obama +10.0
Compared to national average: Obama +9.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Strong Obama

North Carolina
Lead: Romney +3.8
Compared to national average: Romney +3.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Ohio
Lead: Obama +2.3
Compared to national average: Obama +2.2
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +4.6
Compared to national average: Obama +4.5
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Virginia
Lead: Romney +0.5
Compared to national average: Romney +0.6
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +5.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.9
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Spotlight state: Virginia

Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.

Obama gets rave reviews for hurricane response — but he doesn’t get more support

Wednesday, October 31, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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The first returns are in: President Barack Obama is getting overwhelmingly positive reviews from the American people for his response to Hurricane Sandy. Even from Republicans.

But for those of you trying to figure out what that means for the deadlocked presidential race, you’ll just have to wait a bit longer.

The same Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll that found nearly 80 percent of Americans responding favorably to Obama’s handling of the storm’s aftermath also found that the presidential race was tied.

Still.

The Post/ABC poll showed a 49-49 tie — no statistical change from the days leading up to the massive autumn storm that slammed into New Jersey and New York on Monday.

In interviews conducted last night by Langer Research Associates, 78 percent of those questioned rated the president’s hurricane response as “excellent” or “good.” Just 8 percent called Obama’s actions “fair” or “poor.”

Overall, 73 percent of Americans viewed the federal response to the storm favorably.

Romney, who modified his campaign schedule in response to the natural disaster, generally got good grades, too: 44 percent positive, 21 percent negative, with 35 percent expressing no opinion.

The public outlook on Obama’s performance transcends partisanship: more than 80 percent of Democrats and independents — and 63 percent of Republicans — give the president good grades. Democrats are less charitable to Romney: just 24 percent of Democrats and 40 percent of independents are impressed by his response, along with 70 percent of Republicans.

While the bottom line doesn’t change in today’s tracking poll, there is one bit of good news for Obama. The latest poll showed him performing better among independents than any time since the first presidential debate. Independents now side with Romney by 51 percent to 46 percent — Obama’s highest level of support among independents since July. Over the past week, the tracking poll shows an 8-point Obama gain among independents and a 7-point drop for Romney.

Electoral College Update: It’s TIGHT, with Romney up in popular vote, Obama clinging to Electoral edge

Monday, October 29, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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RICK DUNHAM’S ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP — October 29, 2012

Welcome to our weekly Electoral College update. Every Monday morning between now and Election Day, Nov. 6, we will analyze the latest poll results from the 12 most competitive states and let you know which ones are more Republican than the national average and which are more Democratic. We’ll also give you an update on any major shifts in the battleground states in the preceding week.

The big picture:

There’s very little change in national polling since the final presidential debate. Mitt Romney is ahead in six of the ten most recent nationwide polls, President Obama leads in three and one is tied. If you average them out, Romney is ahead by 0.9 points. Obama, however, clings to a narrow edge in the Electoral College count.

There is no trend in the national tracking. Some polls are moving toward Obama, some toward Romney, some in neither direction. So most of the daily changes you see reported breathlessly on TV are really margin-of-error “static.”

We’ve reduced our true toss-up states to three: Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire. Florida and Colorado narrowly favor Romney (though not by much). Obama is leading in most polling in Nevada and Iowa (though not by much). Romney is hanging tough in Wisconsin, where Republicans have an A+ ground game. The GOP has not carried Wisconsin, home of Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan, since 1984.

Advantage: None
Trend: None

The battlegrounds:

Colorado Lead: Romney +0.0
Compared to national average: Obama +0.9
Momentum over past week: Romney
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Florida
Lead: Romney +1.8
Compared to national average: Romney +0.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Iowa Lead: Obama +2.3
Compared to national average: Obama +3.2
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Michigan
Lead: Obama +4.0
Compared to national average: Obama +4.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Nevada
Lead: Obama +2.4
Compared to national average: Obama +3.3
Momentum over past week: Obama
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

New Hampshire
Lead: Obama +1.4
Compared to national average: Obama +2.3
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

New Mexico
Lead: Obama +10.5
Compared to national average: Obama +11.4
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Strong Obama

North Carolina
Lead: Romney +4.8
Compared to national average: Romney +3.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Romney

Ohio
Lead: Obama +2.1
Compared to national average: Obama +3.0
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Pennsylvania
Lead: Obama +4.8
Compared to national average: Obama +5.7
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Virginia
Lead: Tie
Compared to national average: Obama +0.9
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Toss-up

Wisconsin
Lead: Obama +2.3
Compared to national average: Obama +3.2
Momentum over past week: None
Rick Dunham rating: Lean Obama

Spotlight state: New Hampshire

Numbers based on RealClearPolitics poll data compiled by Max Kranl of the Hearst Newspapers Washington bureau and analyzed by Rick Dunham. Our thanks to RealClearPolitics for the timelines.