Archive for the ‘Tim Kaine’ Category

Does it really pay to spend more?

Wednesday, November 7, 2012 by:summer.ballentine@chron.com (Summer Ballentine)
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Can money really buy power? Looking at this year’s congressional campaigns, it sure didn’t hurt.

Millions of dollars are poured into tight Congressional campaigns in the hopes that more money, and in turn more advertising, will help candidates win elections.

Out of the 10 top Senate campaigns nationwide, the top spenders in eight won reelection, according to a Hearst analysis of the top most expensive Congressional elections nationwide. That goes down to six in the House.

Here’s a breakdown of the most expensive campaigns and the top Senate and House spenders who won, or didn’t.

Senate:

1. Massachusetts at $70,535,860

Big spender: Democrat Elizabeth Warren with $35,694,573

Winner: Warren

2. Connecticut at $52,483,032

Big spender: Republican Linda McMahon with $36,072,245

Winner: Democrat Chris Murphy, who only spent $8,611,343

3. Texas at $50,105,888

Big spender: Republican Ted Cruz with $10,949,578

Winner: Cruz

4. Missouri at $32,912,609

Big spender: Democrat Claire McCaskill with $17,443,642

Winner: McCaskill

5. Ohio at$32,483,713

Big spender: Democrat Sherrod Brown with $19,530,017

Winner: Brown

6. Virginia at $31,685,776

Big spender: Democrat Tim Kaine with $18,624,299

Winner:  Kaine

7. Pennsylvania at $30,522,844

Big spender: Republican Tom Smith with $17,377,924

Winner:  Democratic Sen. Bob Casey who spent $10,711,395

8. Wisconsin at $28,028,723

Big spender: Democrat Tammy Baldwin with $11,681,969

Winner: Baldwin

9. Florida at $23,501,053

Big spender: Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson with $12,492,376

Winner: Nelson

10. Michigan at $19,755,340

Big spender: Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow with $12,076,286

Winner: Stabenow

House

1. Minnesota District 06: $20,819,409

Big spender: Republican Rep. Michele Bachmann $19,290,861

Winner: Bachmann

2. Ohio District 08: $20,001,287

Big spender: House Speaker Rep. John Boehner with $19,992,465

Winner: Boehner. (He also ran with no major party opposition.)

3. Florida District 18: $17,299,333*

Big spender: Republican Rep. Allen West with $13,772,741

Winner: Democrat Patrick Murphy who spent $3,432,203

4. Connecticut District 05: $11,846,055

Big spender: Former state Rep. Elizabeth Esty, D-Conn., with $2,753,460

Winner: Esty

5. California District 30: $10,338,894

Big spender: Democratic Rep. Howard Berman with $5,364,071

Winner: Democratic Rep. Brad Sherman with $4,928,158

6. Texas District 33: $8,115,551

Big spender: Democrat Marc Veasey with $1,007,382

Winner: Veasey

7. California District 33: $7,817,931

Big spender: Independent Bill Bloomfield with $5,654,105

Winner: Democratic Rep. Henry Waxman with $1,761,263

8. New York District 27: $7,524,128

Big spender: Democratic incumbent Rep. Kathy Hochul with $3,651,659

Winner: Republican Chris Collins who spent $982,093

9. Virginia District 07: $7,226,255

Big spender: Majority leader Rep. Eric Cantor with $6,608,256

Winner: Cantor

10. Washington District 01: $6,915,275

Big spender: Democrat Suzan DelBene with $4,118,983

Winner: DelBene

Analysis: Polls show that 14 Senate seats are still up for grabs

Thursday, November 1, 2012 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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With five days to go before Election Day, there are more close Senate contests than in any election in our three decades of covering congressional elections.

Fourteen of this year’s 33 Senate contests are within single digits, and a surge toward one party could tip the balance of power in the Senate.

If current polling holds up on Nov. 6, the Republicans would net one Senate seat, leaving Democrats with a slim majority (thanks to Independents who caucus with the Democrats).

Best-case scenario for Republicans: A gain of nine. And a Senate majority.

Best-case scenario for Democrats: A gain of two. And a bit of a cushion.

Here are the single-digit Senate contests, based on our analysis of RealClearPolitics data. Thanks to Max Kranl of the Hearst Washington bureau for collecting the numbers for us to slice and dice:

1. Montana: Denny Rehberg (R) vs. Sen. Jon Tester (D)

Average: Rehberg +0.3
Range: Rehberg +3 to Tester +2
Most recent polls: Rehberg leads one poll, Tester leads one, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Can Democrats turn out their voters in a red state to save their most endangered incumbent?

2. Arizona: Jeff Flake (R) vs. Richard Carmona (D)

Average: Flake +0.7
Range: Flake +6 to Carmona +4
Most recent polls: Flake leads in two polls, Carmona also leads in two
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Wild fluctuations in polls in an unexpectedly competitive race for a GOP-held seat.

3. Virginia: Tim Kaine (D) vs. George Allen (R)

Average: Kaine +1.0
Range: Kaine +7 to Allen +5
Most recent polls: Kaine leads in three of five polls, Allen in two
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Kaine running just ahead of President Obama in dead-heat state.

4. Wisconsin: Tammy Baldwin (D) vs. Tommy Thompson (R)

Average: Baldwin +1.3
Range: Baldwin +4 to Thompson +1
Most recent polls: Baldwin leads in two polls, Thompson leads in one
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Thompson running just ahead of Romney-Ryan ticket in a key presidential battleground.

5. Indiana: Richard Mourdock (R) vs. Joe Donnelly (D)

Average: Mourdock +1.3
Range: Mourdock +5 to Donnelly +2
Most recent polls: Mourdock leads in two polls, Donnelly in one, one a tie
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Internal polling showing a Mourdock dive after “rape” comment created a firestorm. But no recent public polling.

6. Nebraska: Deb Fischer (R) vs. Bob Kerrey (D)
Average: Fischer +3
Range: None
Most recent polls: Fischer leads in the only public poll since September
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: It’s a very Republican state, and there’s only one public poll. It’s not inconceivable that former Sen. Kerrey could pull an upset, but it’s highly unlikely with Romney running way ahead.

7. Nevada: Sen. Dean Heller (R) vs. Shelley Berkley (D)

Average: Heller +3.5
Range: Heller +6 to tie
Most recent polls: Heller leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Ethics issues have hurt Berkley in a state where Obama is slightly ahead.

8. Connecticut: Chris Murphy (D) vs. Linda McMahon (R)

Average: Murphy +4.0
Range: Murphy +6 to tie
Most recent polls: Murphy leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: The polling trendline is with Murphy.

9. Massachusetts: Elizabeth Warren (D) vs. Sen. Scott Brown (R)

Average: Warren +4.5
Range: Warren +7 to tie
Most recent polls: Warren leading in three of four polls, one a tie
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Barring a late shift, the Democratic challenger seems poised for a win.

10. Missouri: Sen. Claire McCaskill (D) vs. Todd Akin (R)

Average: McCaskill +5.0
Range: McCaskill +8 to McCaskill +2
Most recent polls: McCaskill leads in all four polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: McCaskill hasn’t been able to close the deal against a weak opponent.

11. Ohio: Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) vs. Josh Mandel (R)

Average: Brown +5.5
Range: Brown +11 to Brown +1
Most recent polls: Brown leads in all six polls
Polling reliability: Moderate
Rick Dunham’s analysis: The margin has varied widely, but Brown is ahead in every poll.

12. North Dakota: Rick Berg (R) vs. Heidi Heitkamp (D)

Average: Berg +5.7
Range: Berg +10 to +2
Most recent polls: Berg leading in all three polls
Polling reliability: Low
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Romney romp may rescue Berg from strong foe.

13. Pennsylvania: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs. Tom Smith (R)

Average: Casey +6.2
Range: Casey +9 to Casey +1
Most recent polls: Casey leads in all four polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Self-funding Republican has made this a real contest against a popular incumbent.

14. Florida: Sen. Bill Nelson (D) vs. Connie Mack (R)

Average: Nelson +6.7
Range: Nelson +13 to Nelson +3
Most recent polls: Nelson leads in all six polls
Polling reliability: High
Rick Dunham’s analysis: Mack needs a major Romney surge to pull even with the Democratic incumbent.