George W. Bush’s legacy by the numbers

Thursday, April 25, 2013 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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With the opening of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas today, historians and political pundits are taking a second look at the 43rd president’s legacy.

We’d like to offer you a dispassionate view of the Bush record, culled from objective data. Here’s a sampling:

ECONOMIC GROWTH:

GDP growth, adjusted for inflation, for each president

President Real GDP Growth Ranking
Franklin D. Roosevelt + 9.6 % 1 of 13
John F. Kennedy +5.2% 2 of 13
Lyndon Johnson +5.1% 3 of 13
Bill Clinton +3.6% 4 of 13
Dwight Eisenhower +3.6% 5 of 13
Ronald Reagan +3.5% 6 of 13
Jimmy Carter +3.2% 7 of 13
Richard Nixon +3.0% 8 of 13
George W. Bush +2.2% 9 of 13
Gerald Ford +2.1% 10 of 13
George H.W. Bush +2.1% 11 of 13
Harry Truman +1.1% 12 of 13
Herbert Hoover -15.0% 13 of 13

 

JOB CREATION:

President Percentage increase in jobs Ranking
Lyndon Johnson 3.8% 1 of 11
Jimmy Carter 3.1% 2 of 11
Bill Clinton 2.4% 3 of 11
John F. Kennedy 2.3% 4 of 11
Harry Truman 2.2% 5 of 11
Richard Nixon 2.2% 6 of 11
Ronald Reagan 2.1% 7 of 11
Gerald Ford 1.1% 8 of 11
Dwight Eisenhower 0.9% 9 of 11
George H.W.Bush 0.6% 10 of 11
George W. Bush 0.3% 11 of 11

Source: Washington Post data

WORKERS’ INCOME:

Inflation-adjusted changes in per capita income

President Percentage change Ranking
Lyndon Johnson 4.1% 1 of 11
John F. Kennedy 3.1% 2 of 11
Ronald Reagan 2.7% 3 of 11
Richard Nixon 2.6% 4 of 11
Bill Clinton 2.3% 5 of 11
Gerald Ford 2.1% 6 of 11
Jimmy Carter 1.8% 7 of 11
George W. Bush 1.3% 8 of 11
Dwight Eisenhower 1.3% 8 of 11
Harry Truman 0.8% 10 of 11
George H.W. Bush 0.1% 11 of 11

Source: Washington Post data

INCREASE IN GOVERNMENT DEBT:

Increase in the national debt during each presidency

President Increase in national debt Ranking
Franklin D. Roosevelt 929% 1 of 12
Ronald Reagan 179% 2 of 12
George W. Bush 88% 3 of 12
Richard Nixon 49% 4 of 12
Jimmy Carter 42% 5 of 12
Bill Clinton 40% 6T of 12
George H.W. Bush 40% 6T of 12
Gerald Ford 22% 8 of 12
Dwight Eisenhower 20% 9 of 12
Harry Truman 20% 10 of 12
Lyndon Johnson 13% 11 of 12
John F. Kennedy 10% 12 of 12

Source: Houston Chronicle analysis of government data

 

STOCK MARKET PERFORMANCE:

Dow Jones Average’s annual change during each presidency

President Stock market change Ranking
Bill Clinton +28% 1 of 13
Dwight Eisenhower +21% 2 of 13
Franklin D. Roosevelt +17% 3T of 13
Ronald Reagan +17% 4T of 13
Harry Truman +16% 5T of 13
Gerald Ford +16% 5T of 13
George H.W. Bush +11% 7 of 13
Lyndon Johnson +6% 8T of 13
John F. Kennedy +6% 8T of 13
Jimmy Carter No change 10 of 13
George W. Bush -2% 11 of 13
Richard Nixon -3% 12 of 13
Herbert Hoover -20% 13 of 13

END-OF-TERM JOB APPROVAL:

Job approval at the end of each presidency

President Final approval rating Ranking
Franklin D. Roosevelt 72% 1 of 12
Bill Clinton 65% 2 of 12
Ronald Reagan 64% 3 of 12
John F. Kennedy 63% 4 of 12
Dwight Eisenhower 59% 5 of 12
Lyndon Johnson 49% 6 of 12
George H.W. Bush 56% 7 of 12
Gerald Ford 53% 8 of 12
Jimmy Carter 34% 9 of 12
Harry Truman 32% 10 of 12
George W. Bush 27% 11 of 12
Richard Nixon 24% 12 of 12

JOB APPROVAL (HIGHEST POINT):

Highest approval ratings of each presidency

President Highest rating Ranking
George W. Bush 92% 1 of 12
George H.W. Bush 89% 2 of 12
Harry Truman 87% 3 of 12
Franklin D. Roosevelt 84% 4 of 12
Lyndon Johnson 80% 5T of 12
John F. Kennedy 80% 6T of 12
Dwight Eisenhower 79% 7 of 12
Jimmy Carter 75% 8 of 12
Gerald Ford 74% 9 of 12
Bill Clinton 73% 10 of 12
Ronald Reagan 68% 11 of 12
Richard Nixon 67% 12 of 12

Source: University of Connecticut, Roper Center

JOB APPROVAL (LOWEST POINT):

Lowest approval rating of each presidency

President Lowest rating Ranking
George W. Bush 19% 1 of 12
Harry Truman 22% 2 of 12
Richard Nixon 23% 3 of 12
Jimmy Carter 28% 4 of 12
George H.W. Bush 29% 5 of 12
Ronald Reagan 35% 6T of 12
Lyndon Johnson 35% 6T of 12
Bill Clinton 36% 8 of 12
Gerald Ford 37% 9 of 12
Franklin D. Roosevelt 48% 10T of 12
Dwight Eisenhower 48% 10T of 12
John F. Kennedy 56% 12 of 12

Source: University of Connecticut, Roper Center

U.S. STANDING IN THE WORLD:

Favorable image of the United States

Country 2000 rating 2008 rating Change
Nigeria 46% 64% +18
South Korea 58% 70% +12
Russia 37% 46% +9
India 66% 66% 0
Pakistan 23% 19% -4
South Africa 65% 60% -5
Brazil 56% 47% -9
Spain 50% 33% -17
Poland 86% 68% -18
France 64% 44% -20
Mexico 68% 47% -21
Argentina 50% 22% -28
Japan 77% 50% -27
Great Britain 83% 53% -30
Indonesia 75% 37% -38
Turkey 52% 12% -40
Germany 78% 31% -47

Note: The initial surveys in South Africa and India were conducted in 2002.

Source: The Pew Research Center

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To read Rick Dunham’s comprehensive report on President Bush’s legacy, click here.

Categories: budget/taxes/economy, Bush family

George W. Bush’s top five successes — and failures

Tuesday, April 23, 2013 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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To mark the opening of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas, we offer you a glimpse back at the greatest triumphs and mistakes of his years on the national stage.

Here are our choices. Feel free to add your own by posting a comment.

TOP SUCCESSES

1. There were no successful terrorist attacks on the U.S. homeland after September 11, 2001.

The president united the nation in the immediate aftermath of the al Qaeda attacks. His administration, working with local law enforcement agencies and other nations, foiled all terrorism plots for the next seven-plus years.

2. Bush became just the fourth Republican president in American history to serve two full terms.

The first three: Ulysses S. Grant, Dwight D. Eisenhower and Ronald W. Reagan. But unlike the other three, who won six landslides, Bush had two close calls. His 2000 victory (while losing the popular vote) will go down as one of the most hotly disputed in U.S. history. His 2004 re-election was by a slim 2.5 percentage point margin.

3. The president won the biggest tax cut in American history.

Candidate Bush promised to cut taxes. President Bush did just that. The income tax rate cuts returned money to all Americans — but particularly the wealthy. Inheritance tax rates also were slashed and the marriage penalty was ended. The biggest victory for Bush came four years after he left the presidency when President Obama agreed to make the Bush tax cuts permanent on all but the top one-half of 1 percent of Americans.

4. Bush signed into law the biggest expansion of an entitlement program since the Great Society: the Medicare drug benefit.

The drug benefit divided Republicans in the House of Representatives but House Majority Whip Tom DeLay of Texas twisted enough arms to give Bush a narrow but historic legislative victory. It was the legislative high point of the Bush presidency.

5. Bush’s administration prevented a calamitous meltdown of the U.S. financial system in the fall of 2008.

Though derided as a “Wall Street bailout,” Bush’s rapid response to the imminent meltdown of the U.S. financial system may have prevented another Great Depression from beginning in the waning days of his presidency. Yes, money was wasted. Yes, “bad guys” got some bailout money. Yes, no banking execs ended up behind bars. But things could have been much, much worse if the president hadn’t convinced Congress to act.

TOP FAILURES

1. Bush led the nation into war with Iraq on incorrect intelligence reports.

Historians are still debating whether the administration deliberately lied or relied on faulty and false intelligence reports in the run-up to the invasion of Iraq. There were no weapons of mass destruction, no “mushroom cloud” on the horizon and no al Qaeda tie to Saddam Hussein.

2. U.S. economic performance was its weakest since Herbert Hoover’s presidency.

Bush inherited the largest surplus in American history and left office with the largest deficit (since surpassed by Barack Obama). His overall record of job creation, personal income and stock market performance is the worst since the Hoover presidency, though Richard Nixon and Jimmy Carter are down there with him.

3. Anti-terrorism tactics employed by the Bush administration damaged U.S. standing in the world.

The Global War on Terror (GWOT), as it was named by Bush, featured controversies such as the prison camp at Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, where terrorism suspects were held without charges. “Enhanced interrogation” techniques — called torture by most critics — scarred the United States’ reputation around the world. Secret prisons in Eastern Europe were denounced by many nations, including some U.S. allies. Republicans such as Sen. John McCain and Democrats including Sen. Barack Obama called for Bush to shut down Gitmo. He didn’t. Neither has Obama in his first five years as president.

4. The U.S. government failed to capture bin Laden or secure Afghanistan.

Bush promised to take the al Qaeda leader “dead or alive” and famously declared, “Bring ‘em on.” American policymakers, focused on Iraq, allowed bin Laden to escape at Tora Bora, months after the 9/11 attacks. Bin Laden survived Bush’s presidency, but was brought in “dead or alive” by Obama. The Afghanistan war, now winding down, is the longest war in U.S. history. Even now, there is high anxiety about Afghanistan’s future after the departure of U.S. combat troops.

5. The Republican Party suffered major setbacks in Bush’s second term.

Bush was sworn in as president with a Republican House and a Republican Senate. By the time he turned the Oval Office over to Barack Obama, Democrats were in control of both houses of Congress. And while Republicans have regained control of the House, its conservative leaders have used Bush’s record as a case study in what they don’t want: out-of-control federal spending (domestic and military), new federal entitlements (Medicare drug benefit), government bailouts (financial industry, auto industry) and unfunded federal mandates (education reform).

Categories: Bush family, White House

The Big D is for Dubya: Bush bundlers reprise role for presidential library

Sunday, April 21, 2013 by:Neil.Vigdor@scni.com (Neil Vigdor)
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The exterior of the George W. Bush Presidential Center is seen Friday, April, 5, 2013, in Dallas. The roughly 227,000-square-foot center built on the campus of Southern Methodist University houses Bush’s presidential library, a museum and a policy institute. The dedication of the center will be on April 25. (AP Photo/Kim Johnson Flodin) Photo: Kim Johnson Flodin, Associated Press

The exterior of the George W. Bush Presidential Center is seen Friday, April, 5, 2013, in Dallas. The roughly 227,000-square-foot center built on the campus of Southern Methodist University houses Bush’s presidential library, a museum and a policy institute. The dedication of the center will be on April 25. (AP Photo/Kim Johnson Flodin) Photo: Kim Johnson Flodin, Associated Press

There is an afterlife for Bush Pioneers and Rangers, the monikers given to the top bundlers of campaign contributions for George W. Bush.

It can be found on 5.2 acres of Dallas real estate on the campus of Southern Methodist University, home of the George W. Bush Presidential Center.

A library, museum and think tank, the homage to the 43rd president will be dedicated Thursday, April 25, marking a Texas-sized reunion for Bush loyalists and political patronage appointees.

It coincides with a bipartisan push in Congress — backed by watchdog groups such as the Sunlight Foundation — to require presidential libraries to disclose donor information.

The Bush Center is pledging to release the names of most, but not all, of its donors. The kicker is they won’t be available online.

Many of them are Pioneers and Rangers, meaning they bundled $100,000+ and $200,000+ for Bush’s election and re-election campaigns, respectively.

Note: There is a poll embedded within this post, please visit the site to participate in this post’s poll.

Categories: General

Bipartisan gun bill ready in House should Senate act

Tuesday, April 16, 2013 by:Carolyn Lochhead
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Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena

Rep. Mike Thompson, D-St. Helena

Rep. Mike Thompson, a gun-owning Vietnam veteran hand-picked by House minority leader Nancy Pelosi to forge a bipartisan agreement on gun legislation in the House, unveiled a companion background check bill Tuesday that has bipartisan support.

That puts pressure on House Republican leaders to bring up gun legislation if it can pass the Senate.The Thompson bill is identical to legislation by conservative Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey and conservative West Virginia Democrat Joe Manchin that would expand background checks for gun buyers. That legislation still doesn’t have the 60 votes needed to break a Senate filibuster. But the compromise is about all that’s left of gun control legislation in the Senate, aside from a bill by Sen. Barbara Boxer, D-Calif., that would expand a $40 million security grant program for school districts. Schools could NOT use the grants to install armed guards, Boxer spokesman Zac Coile clarifies. It can be used for “reinforced doors, classroom locks, lighting, fencing, security assessments and safety training for school personnel and students.”
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Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., plans to propose her ban on assault weapons and limits on high-capacity magazines as an amendment to any gun legislation that gets to the Senate floor, but these face significant opposition and are not expected to pass.

Thompson teamed with New York Republican Peter King on the bill, also with two other Pennsylvania Republicans,Mike Fitzpatrick and Pat Meehan. Their support illustrates the split between rural and suburban Republicans on guns.

“Background checks are the first line of defense against criminals and the dangerously mentally ill getting guns,” Thompson and King said in a statement. “This bill is comprehensive, it is enforceable, it will save lives, and it will protect the rights of law abiding Americans to own guns.”

The bill would “expand the existing background check system to cover all commercial firearm sales, including those at gun shows, over the internet or in classified ads. It provides reasonable exceptions for family and friend transfers….background checks would be conducted though a federally licensed dealer. Licensed dealers will run background checks on potential buyers and keep records of sales in the same manner as they have for more than 40 years. Failure to conduct a background check on is punishable by up to five years in prison.”

It also provides incentives to states to improve reporting of criminals and the “dangerous mentally ill” to the National Instant Criminal Background Check System and would cut funding for states that do not comply.

Supporters picked up a key ally last week from the Citizens Committee for the Right to Keep and Bear Arms, which bills itself as the second-largest gun rights organization in the country after the National Rifle Association.

Categories: Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein, General, gun laws, guns

Gun-control foe Cruz has ‘cordial’ phone conversation with daughter of slain Sandy Hook principal, agrees to disagree on gun control

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 by:Richard Dunham
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Erica Lafferty will be heard.

The 27-year-daughter of slain Sandy Hook Elementary School principal Dawn Lafferty Hochsprung may not have the money to come to Washington to lobby for gun-control legislation. So she’s using a less-expensive way to reach Republican senators who are threatening to filibuster any efforts to change the nation’s gun laws: Twitter.

Lafferty’s Twitter barrage — her Twitter handle is @E_Laffs2 — has targeted the 14 Republicans who have pledged to join a filibuster, including Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. She attached poignant photos of her mom and her family, trying to appeal to the human side of the lawmakers.

The young woman, who lives near Newtown, also tried to reach the senators the old-fashioned way, by telephone.

Joining her effort was Connecticut’s governor, Dan Malloy, who tried to shame the senators to take her calls.

Getting nowhere fast, Lafferty kept up the tweet barrage.

After a day of desperate tweets yesterday, only one Republican had responded.

Cruz.

The first-term senator who is pledging to lead a filibuster to block Senate consideration of a gun-control package, which includes expanded background checks of firearms purchasers.

“She called his office yesterday morning,” Cruz spokeswoman Catherine Frazier said today. “He immediately said, ‘Let’s call her back.’”

Frazier said the two spoke for “10 to 15 minutes” on Tuesday afternoon. While describing the discussion as “a personal conversation,” Frazier said “it was a cordial conversation. She was able to ask him some questions.”

Lafferty told the New York Times that she asked Cruz pointed questions, including these: “What would have happened if my mom chose not to do her job? How many more people would have died if my mom had chosen to hide?”

Cruz did not back down an inch from his filibuster threat against any proposal he sees as a threat to the Second Amendment.

“They agreed to disagree,” said Frazier.

Still, she added, “he was glad he could do it. He was happy to.”

Lafferty responded to the conversation, naturally, on Twitter. “At least he called (me) back,” she wrote, followed by the hashtag #ThanksButNoThanksCruz.

Sympathetic Texans sent Twitter messages of support to Lafferty, many of them blasting their Republican senator.

The Connecticut woman is showing no signs of slowing down. Today, she tweeted to unpersuaded senators with a defiant message.

Categories: gun laws, guns, Sandy Hook elementary school, Second Amendment

Cuomo: Senate gun bill ‘only better than nothing’

Wednesday, April 10, 2013 by:jvielkind@timesunion.com (Jimmy Vielkind, Capitol bureau)
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ALBANY — New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo blasted a compromise that will move a gun control bill through the U.S. Senate, saying Congress will “fundamentally fail to act on a societal scourge” by expanding background checks without reinstating an expired ban on semi-automatic “assault weapons.”

(Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

“This is a Congress that is captive of the extremists, and there is no clearer proof than this,” said Cuomo, a Democrat. “They’re talking about a bill that might improve the background checks, which is better than nothing, but it’s only better than nothing.”

Wednesday morning, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, a Democrat, and Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, a Republican, announced an agreement to extend background checks to firearms sold at gun shows and by Internet retailers. Private sales between individuals would still not require a background check.

The Democrat-controlled Senate will vote to start debate on gun control Thursday. The Washington Post reports that senators are expected to reject proposals from Barack Obama to limit high capacity magazines and restrict some types of semi-automatic, military assault rifles. A ban on such firearms — including the AK-47 — expired in 2004.

Cuomo said a gun control bill he pushed, dubbed the SAFE Act, goes much further.

“Our gun package goes well beyond what they’re talking about in Washington. … We’re not talking about a significant package anymore. We lost that along the way,” Cuomo said during a radio interview. “I think it points out the intelligence of what we did in New York State, and thank God we did.”

New York’s SAFE Act broadened the definition of banned assault weapons, banned the sale or possession of magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds and places a seven round cap on the amount of bullets they can lawfully contain. The law also increased penalties for illegal gun possession, reduced public access to gun permit information, and required mental health professionals to report concerns about a gun-owning patient who poses a risk to himself or others.

New York’s bill was unveiled on Jan. 14, and passed quickly through a “message of necessity” that waived the legally required three-day waiting period. The New York State Senate, led by a Republican-dominated coalition, passed the measure by a 43-18 vote less than two hours after the bill’s text became public. The Democrat-dominated Assembly passed the bill the next day, and Cuomo signed it. He has since faced criticism and legal challenges to the bill, and his poll standing notched down.

During his first two years as governor, Cuomo would often decline to comment on federal proposals. But during the Wednesday morning radio interview, conducted by WCNY’s “The Capitol Pressroom,” the governor spent 10 minutes on the subject.

Cuomo was careful not to criticize Barack Obama, but contrasted his own efforts in New York — passing bills through a split Legislature where Republicans effectively control one house — with what he described as “paralysis”in Washington.

There has been chatter about Cuomo as a possible 2016 presidential contender, and New York’s Democratic State Committee — under de facto Cuomo control — has started airing ads in the Empire State that weigh in on federal policy.

Still, Cuomo last week told the Buffalo News editorial board: “I don’t think about 2016. … I’m working as hard as I can this year.”

Categories: 2016 Democratic Primary, 2016 Presidential Election, Andrew Cuomo, guns

Is Obama’s popularity at a tipping point?

Monday, April 8, 2013 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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Here’s a bit of political trivia from a proud history major:

The first April of a second presidential term has proven to be a tipping point in the popularity of re-elected presidents.

For George W. Bush and Richard M. Nixon, it was all downhill from there. For Bill Clinton (despite impeachment) and Ronald Reagan (despite the Iran-Contra scandal), it was a pathway to historically high job approval ratings.

The new CNN/ORC poll released today placed Obama at 51 percent, very close to the April approval ratings of each of the four other second-term presidents.

What comes next? That’s for the history books.

>>> Explore Gallup’s historical polling data and come up with your own comparisons.

Categories: Bush family, Polls

Kamala Harris has competition

Saturday, April 6, 2013 by:richard.dunham@chron.com (Richard Dunham)
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We want to say this in a non-sexist way: Kamala Harris has competition.

She has competition in the battle for smartest, toughest, fairest, most effective Attorney General in the USA.

She also has competition in the “best looking” category that got President Obama in such hot water this week.

This photo gallery doesn’t in any way imply that better-looking politicians make better public servants. Nor does it suggest that voters should — or do — make choices based on the looks of the candidates. (Take that, Rick Perry and Mitt Romney.)

Text by Rick Dunham
Photo Gallery by Annika Toernqvist

Categories: crime and punishment, Greg Abbott
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