Views from the Promenade

Argenis Reyes is batting leadoff for the Mets tonight. Without even thinking about it much, you probably realize that’s less than ideal, but let’s delve into it a little more, because I think the Mets do have an ideal leadoff hitter with Jose Reyes out of the lineup, but I can guarantee they’ll never put him there.

First, what do we want out of a leadoff hitter? In rough order of importance:

1. He should get on base as much as possible.
2. It would be nice if he has good speed (and/or is a good baserunner) and can steal some bases when necessary.
3. If two players are similar in those traits, we’ll probably use the one who has less power in the leadoff spot, and put the power hitter down in the lineup a bit.

Actually, that’s a pretty solid way of forming a lineup in general; stack your high on-base percentage guys near the top, your remaining power hitters next, and your weakest hitters at the bottom. According to most research, lineup order isn’t the most important thing in the world, but it doesn’t hurt to get your best players up more times during the season by batting them early in the order.

By these metrics, Argenis Reyes is not a good leadoff hitter. Specifically, he has an awful career OBP of .252. He does have good speed, and he’s not a power hitter, but those things are of much less importance; as the cliche goes, “you can’t steal first.” If your leadoff hitter isn’t getting on, everything he can do on the bases for you is irrelevant.

Now, let’s look at two alternate leadoff hitters, both of which should be obviously better than Argenis Reyes. Let’s start with some stats without giving names. These are the 162-game averages for the careers of two players. SLG is slugging percentage:

Player A: .393 OBP, 23 SB (6 CS), .529 SLG, 28 HR.

Player B: .337 OBP, 62 SB (15 CS), .435 SLG, 13 HR.

So, what can we say for these two players and their leadoff potential? Player A is obviously the more productive offensive player, but Player B is no slouch, and makes up some of the difference as a leadoff hitter due to his higher stolen base numbers. Player A might also work a couple spots down in the lineup due to his good power numbers. Both players would probably make good leadoff hitters (though we’d like to see Player B’s OBP come up a little), while Player A is a little more versatile.

Player B, of course, is Jose Reyes (it’s hard to hide his identity with all those steals). He’s injured, so he probably won’t be leading off for us in the near future.

Player A…well, most Mets fans know who he is too. But let’s first point out that he’s having a much worse power year than normal, while having an incredible .432 OBP and leading the league in hitting. He’s also amoung the league leaders in stolen bases with 20.

Player A sounds like an ideal leadoff hitter. Player A is David Wright.

I know, we need a big bat in the middle of the lineup, but this makes a lot more sense than most people give it credit for. Wright gets on base a ton, has good speed, and steals quite a few bases. Right now, he’s not even hitting for the power that would give you a reason for having him in the middle of the lineup. Quite frankly, Wright would be one of the best leadoff hitters in the game if the Mets put him there.

I know that many people will disagree with a statement like that, though I’m not sure it would be based on anything but instinct. But even if you think I’m wrong about just how good Wright would do as a leadoff hitter, look at it this way: can you honestly say the Mets offense is better off with Argenis Reyes batting leadoff than with Wright in that spot, everyone moving up a spot behind him, and Reyes hitting 8th?

After last night’s 4-2 loss to the Yankees, and getting swept at home by our crosstown rivals, it’s hard to find anything to be optimistic about in regards to the Mets. I’m not here to tell you that the glass is half full, but maybe — just maybe — there might be a few drops of water in there. A few things to keep you sane:

• I think scoring two runs on nine hits is a slightly disappointing performance in one game. Over a three game series, it might just be enough to finally push the Mets into making a trade to bolster the offense. As long as we’re not mortgaging the future, I’d like to see them bring in a bat.
• Livan Hernandez put in another solid start last night, although at times he seemed like he was getting lucky: there were a lot of hard hit liners that found the defense. Regardless, Hernandez continues to be a pleasant surprise and a solid starter who can eat innings, helping the sometimes overworked Mets bullpen.
• Umm…at least K-Rod didn’t give up a grand slam to Mariano Rivera?

Like I said, finding positives here isn’t easy, because that whole series was embarrassing. Let’s just hope the Mets can pick up the pieces and start winning again tonight in Milwaukee.

For the second time this week, the Mets had two or less hits in a game, this time courtesy of AJ Burnett and friends. I’m not sure what to say about that, really, other than that we either need to get used to getting shut out on a weekly basis (or worse), or the Mets need to bring in some hired guns.

On the bright side, the game ball goes to Alex Cora for preventing the Mets from being no-hit in their own stadium. The bullpen also did a nice job; hopefully Jerry Manuel notices that we have many arms that can get the job done, and can keep everyone fresh without falling into the trap of overusing guys like Bobby Parnell and Pedro Feliciano.

The Mets will look to take at least one game from the Yankees tomorrow night, on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.

Update: Bart Hubbuch of the New York Post just gave a great note on his Twitter feed. The last time the Mets had a total of four hits or less over a two game stretch? April 29-30, 1967. Hopefully, this year will turn out just a little better than that one.

Even though there have been a lot of complaints, the Mets have been far from terrible so far this year. They’re 37-34, two games better than they were this time last year — when the Mets had a much healthier roster. Much of the difference is rightly credited to the bullpen, which has improved dramatically over last year’s disaster.

There’s another reason the Mets have kept their heads above water, though, and I haven’t seen much written about it. The Mets have tremendous depth, in the sense that they have  a surplus of reserve players who can fill in and provide at least some value to the team. Some of these players — Gary Sheffield and Alex Cora, to name two — started the year on the bench and have stepped in with solid production after the Mets’ string of injuries left them shorthanded. Others, like Nick Evans, Omir Santos and Fernando Nieve have been added from the minors or free agency and have been critical in keeping the Mets in contention.

Baseball Prospectus’ Keith Woolner created a statistic known as Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP. I don’t want to get into the mathematics of this rather abstract statistic, but the Replacement Player portion of the title is relevant to this post. The idea behind VORP is that the best way to figure out just how much a player is worth to a team is by comparing him to what you’d get out of a “replacement player” who had the same amount of playing time, the type of player any team could pick up on a whim and get to fill in at their position. You can think of this replacement player as a free agent who nobody wants, or a typical AAA player who is not notably talented.

The Mets have been replacing their injured stars with lesser players, that much is true. But for the most part, these players have played above that replacement player level, which has helped prevent the Mets season from becoming derailed. While plenty of attention is paid to the big moves that are made (or not made) during the year, the Mets and Omar Minaya do deserve some credit for stockpiling solid backups and reserve players who can fill in and give the Mets a little more than most teams get from their second and third-stringers. When everything is going right, it’s easy to forget the importance of depth, but in an injury-riddled season like this one, it could be the difference between contention and a long, boring summer.

It had been nearly three weeks since the Mets last won a series (June 5-7 against the Nationals). That streak ended today as the Mets defeated the Cardinals 3-2, taking three of four in their series at Citi Field. Nick Evans came up with another big hit, driving in two runs with a double in the Mets’ critical 4th inning rally. Johan Santana threw seven strong innings, and despite walking two runners in the 9th, Francisco Rodriguez was able to close out the game.

This winning stretch couldn’t come at a better time for the Mets. Defeating a division leader at half-strength has to give the team (not to mention the fans) some confidence heading into this weekend’s Subway Series. The Mets are also finding ways to stay close to the Phillies; if they can bring back most of their missing parts over the course of the next month while staying within a couple games of Philadelphia, you have to figure the Mets will be poised to make a run.

Right now though, all eyes are on this weekend’s clash with the Yankees. Here’s a quick preview of the probable pitching matchups for the weekend:

• Friday, 7:10 PM: Pelfrey (5-2, 4.74 ERA) vs. Sabathia (6-4, 3.71)
• Saturday, 7:10 PM: Redding (1-2, 6.08) vs. Burnett (5-4, 4.24)
• Sunday, 8:05 PM: Hernandez (5-2, 4.05) vs. Wang (0-6, 11.20)

It’s been a while since the Mets had a nice, easy win where there wasn’t some level of drama in the late innings. Before tonight, the Mets had only won by five or more runs twice in the last month, both times against the Nationals. Isn’t it great not having to sweat during those last few outs?

Not only did the Mets win, but just about everyone had a good night. Fernando Nieve had an excellent start, and the bullpen allowed one hit in three innings of work. The lineup came through from top to bottom, especially David Wright (4-4), Ryan Church (3-4), Fernando Tatis (2-4) and the recently promoted Nick Evans (2-3 with a HR). Games like this prove that even a depleted lineup can produce  from time to time, and we don’t have to assume the Mets can’t score runs with the team they’re fielding. Things might not be great for a while, but the Mets won’t be held to two hits every night.

As Mets fans, we’re naturally inclined to look for bad news, and while there wasn’t anything to complain about during the game, the Mets did suffer yet another injury setback today — albeit a minor one. Gary Sheffield was given a cortisone shot behind his right knee due to an inflamed bursa sac, and will be out of the lineup until at least Friday. Sheffield has worked out nicely for the Mets, especially considering they signed him for next to nothing; while nobody counted on Sheffield to play every day, the current power-starved lineup could use him back as soon as possible.

One final note: after tonight’s performance, it’s hard to see a way to move Nieve out of the rotation in the near future. How that will work out when John Maine and Oliver Perez is anyone’s guess.

I want to take a second look at the rehab starts made by Oliver Perez and John Maine yesterday. The initial reaction, which I parroted yesterday, was that Perez’s start was a disaster, while Maine’s was good. But is there something else we should be looking at here?

Maine did allow just one run on two hits in four innings. However, he did walk three batters and record just one strikeout. Meanwhile, Perez gave up six runs in three innings, with seven hits allowed — but with just one walk allowed and three strikeouts, which is unlike the “Bad Ollie” we’ve become accustomed to. Remember that the number of hits a pitcher allows is largely impacted by the performance of the defense behind them (and some luck), and that defense in the Florida State League is probably not quite as consistent as in the majors.

With all that out of the way, it’s still a bad outing for Perez and a solid performance by Maine. Still, the results probably aren’t as dramatically different as they were presented in the media; strikeout to walk ratio is good at predicting future success, and Perez did outperform Maine by that standard. If scouts and team officials say Maine is ready and Perez needs more time, then I trust them, but our opinions shouldn’t be  influenced by statistics from a few innings of single-A baseball. It would be wrong to get too excited — or too concerned — over such a small sample of pitching.

On the same day that the Mets learned they’ll be without Carlos Beltran for at least two weeks, a few unlikely heroes stepped up to earn a 6-4 win over the Cardinals. Omir Santos went 4-4, while Tim Redding picked up his first win of the season by going 7+ innings, giving the bullpen some much needed relief. Daniel Murphy also chipped in with a homer, and seems to be heating up over the last week.

Let’s face it: the Mets are beyond shorthanded right now, especially on offense, where only David Wright remains among the key bats they depend on. It’s going to be a long two weeks (or more — we are talking about the Mets here) until Beltran gets back. Every win the Mets can pick up in this stretch is big, and it’s going to take some unlikely heroes to keep the team afloat.

On a related note, wasn’t there a guy named Jose Reyes on this team a while back? I seem to recall him being pretty good, but it’s been so long now that I could be mistaken. Sure would be nice to get him back sometime soon, but apparently there’s still no time frame for his return. As far as some help for the pitching staff, both John Maine and Oliver Perez had rehab starts today. From what ’s being reported, Maine looked good, Perez not so great. I’m not sure the Mets can count on getting anything from either of them in the near future. I think we have to expect the Mets to be the team we see on the field right now for the next couple of weeks — any surprising contributions from returning players are a bonus.