Views from the Promenade

Mets fans will be understandably pessimistic heading into the second half of the season. The team is struggling, we’re still suffering through one of the worst rash of injuries the Mets have ever seen, and management doesn’t appear to be looking to make a big trade to improve the team and make a run.

All that said, let’s not give up hope yet. There’s plenty of talent on this team, even if some of that talent is on the disabled list. If the Mets hang roughly where they are — within 6-7 games or so of first — until they start getting players like Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran back, all is not yet lost. The Mets would need some help, because if the Phillies play as well as they can, it would be nearly impossible to catch them. But until the last two weeks, Philadelphia hadn’t shown the ability to start distancing themselves from the rest of the NL East; if their recent run proves to be the exception rather than the rule, there’s still a chance for the Mets to play themselves back into contention.

We’ll see how the Mets open up the second half tomorrow night in Atlanta, and hope they can start to turn things around — otherwise, it could be a long and boring summer. For now though, I want to give my take on the five biggest storylines of the first half:

1. Citi Field: The new home of the Mets quickly developed a reputation as being one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the league, and commentators have noted all season long that home run numbers at the park are down significantly. Part of this is true, but some of the perception doesn’t quite match the numbers. According to ESPN’s Park Factors, Citi Field is near the bottom of the league in terms of how many runs it allows, ranking 26th out of 30. But this is mostly due to a big reduction in walks and doubles; homers are almost exactly where you’d expect them to be (technically, they’re up 0.7%) when you compare how the same players perform in Citi Field compared to everywhere else. I have a feeling this number will come down, and Citi Field will prove to have some effect on the long ball, but only a moderate one — not the extreme one we’ve been told about.
2. The Mets Power Outage: For a while, the new park made an excellent excuse for why the Mets weren’t hitting home runs. Before too long, it became apparent that the team was hitting even fewer away from home, making it obvious that something was up with the players themselves. At the midpoint of the season, the Mets are last in the league with just 52 home runs as a team, and they’re not likely to get out of the cellar; even 29th placed Pittsburgh has 62.
3. David Wright’s Strange Season: One player who has a large hand in the lack of power is David Wright, who is having the strangest season of his career. His home runs are down (5), his strikeouts are up (87), and he has gone through terrible slumps and incredible hot streaks. And yet, despite all this, you can’t say he’s having a bad year when his on-base percentage is at .410 — he’s just not having the same sort of good year he’s had in the past. Actually, his most recent slump has taken his numbers down enough that this season looks a little off from his career norms, but before then he had largely been making up for the lack of power. Hopefully he’ll get some of his pop back in the second half, because the Mets need some in the middle of the lineup.
4. The Injuries: Oh, the injuries. It’s often said that you can’t blame injuries for a team’s struggles, but rarely does a team get hit nearly as hard as the Mets have this year. Is there any doubt that the presence of Carlos Delgado, Carlos Beltran, and Jose Reyes wouldn’t have been worth at least a few games? And as much as they have struggled this season, wouldn’t a healthy John Maine and Oliver Perez have bolstered the starting rotation just a bit? The fact that the Mets haven’t fallen completely out of the race despite these injuries is one reason to feel just a little hope for the second half.
5. Church for Francouer: It probably won’t be the greatest trade the Mets ever made, but the more I think about it, the more it seems that the Mets can’t really lose. After all, they had no intention to actually use Church, so even if Francouer is a bust (and even after his hot start with the Mets, he probably will be), there’s no real loss involved. On the other hand, if Francouer really did just need a change of scenery, the deal could turn into a steal for the Mets.

One of the running storylines of the first season in Citi Field has been just how huge the new park plays. Nobody, we’re told, can hit a ball out of there; pitchers shouldn’t be afraid to throw to contact because the long ball just isn’t a threat.

But how do we go about proving whether Citi Field is a pitcher’s park, and what effect it has on home runs? One method is to use park factors, such as the ones provided at ESPN.com. These numbers try to show what  effect, if any, a particular ballpark has on the number of runs scored, homers hit, and other offensive statistics.  The methods for determining park factors can vary from source to source, but generally they involve comparing how the home team plays in their stadium compared to what they do on the road. Park factors are usually given as ratios, so a factor for home runs of .90 would mean that you’ll hit about 90% as many homers in that park compared to an average field, while a 1.20 factor would mean home runs are up 20% at that stadium over the league average.

On ESPN’s page, we find that Citi Field definitely rates as a pitcher’s park so far; in terms of runs, it has a park factor of .88, 7th lowest in the majors. However, this mostly comes from a reduced number of hits, especially doubles, and a low number of walks allowed (maybe pitchers are taking the advice and pitching to contact instead of trying to get hitters to chase). What might surprise you is that Citi Field’s HR factor is a 1.136, meaning that you’re actually more likely to hit a home run there than in the average stadium!

Yeah, it sounds crazy, but remember that we’re only dealing with a small sample of games so far; heading into tonight’s game, the Mets have only played 29 home games (21 HR) and 35 away games (20 HR). That’s not nearly enough to draw any firm statistical conclusions. Both Mets players and visitors say the field is playing big, and until we see something different over a couple of seasons, I’m inclined to believe them.

That said, this does suggest that the lack of power seen by the Mets so far this year may have a lot more to do with the players themselves than with Citi Field. And even if the field does ultimately suppress the number of home runs hit at home, it’s unlikely to be by a dramatic amount. It’s time to stop using Citi Field as an excuse for the power outage, and start figuring out why the Mets can’t hit homers anywhere…or trade for someone who can.