UConn On The Bubble: Feb. 29

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UConn is lucky that there’s such a “soft bubble” this year, because things are spiraling out of control in Storrs. The Huskies have dropped nine of their past 12 games and the three wins were against Villanova (in overtime), DePaul (last place in the Big East) and Seton Hall (which was without its leading scorer, Herb Pope).

If UConn misses the NCAA tournament, it’ll be just the third AP preseason top five team  to do so since the turn of the century.

Missouri, ranked fifth in 2003-04, finished 16-14 and lost in the first round of the NIT. LSU, No. 5 in 2006-07, missed the postseason altogether. Like UConn, that LSU team — 17-15 overall and 5-11 in the conference — was coming off a Final Four appearance. Unlike UConn, though, LSU only had one legitimate pro player (Glen Davis). The Huskies seem to have at least three, maybe four.

Anyway, here’s what the Bubble Watch looks like tonight.

RECORD: 17-12 (7-10 Big East)

BEST WINS: at Notre Dame, vs. Harvard, vs. Florida State, vs. West Virginia

WORST LOSSES: at Rutgers, at Louisville (by 21), at Seton Hall, at Tennessee

SOS: 1

RPI: 35

EYEBALL TEST: Not good. Huskies really let one slip away against Providence. Completely negated any momentum they had from the hard-fought loss to Syracuse.

REMAINING GAMES: vs. Pittsburgh

TODAY’S PROJECTIONS:

ESPN — No. 10 seed vs. No. 7 Gonzaga (moved to Joe Lunardi’s “last eight in”)

CBS — No. 11 seed vs. No. 6 Gonzaga

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING:

CBS: Jerry Palm, as of this podcast’s posting, has UConn in the field as an 11 seed. Why? Because the profile still stacks up favorably to other fringe squad. But the Huskies aren’t a tournament team and cannot be trusted. — Matt Norlander

Categories: General

Notes/Quotes from Providence: “I don’t know…I don’t know…no comment.”

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After Tuesday’s loss to Providence, Roscoe Smith said UConn, assured of a losing record in the Big East, isn’t worried because it has great players.

So, the obvious question: Why can’t great players put it together and become a great team?

“I don’t know….I don’t know,” Smith said. “No comment.”

Shabazz Napier (AP)

And that, my friends, pretty much sums things up. There weren’t answers back in November when UConn allowed a 17-point lead to slip away against UCF, and there certainly aren’t any today, the last day of February.

Some links and additional info from a loss that could cost the defending national champion a tournament berth:

*UConn blows lead, falls to Providence

*Chris Elsberry: Say farewell to UConn’s NCAA hopes

* Three Months After UCF Loss, Not Much Has Changed For Huskies (vote if UConn is tournament worthy)

Notes/Quotes:

* Aside from the 10 3-pointers it gave up — that’s been a theme all  year — the numbers don’t look bad: UConn had 17 assists and just seven turnovers, shot 46 percent from the field and scored 70 points. Sounds like a win, right?

“It was one of those games where you do everything right, and it was just neck-and-neck,” Smith said. “It was a hard-fought game, but congratulations to Providence.”

* Providence has now won five of the past seven meetings between the two teams. UConn hasn’t won at “The Dunk” since 2006. So, really, it doesn’t make much sense for Shabazz Napier to say “No disrespect to them, but this is one of the games you put a ‘W’ before you even play it.”

Ouch.

Truthfully, UConn can’t say that about many teams in the Big East. Remember, this team was 9-9 a year ago. It was 7-11 the year before that. Ever since the Glory Days ended (the Hasheem Thabeet/A.J. Price/Jeff Adrien/me as a student era), UConn has conference mark of 23-30. The Huskies are now in serious danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years.

* Check back tomorrow afternoon for the daily Bubble Watch/Calhoun Watch.

Categories: General

Three Months After UCF Loss, Not Much Has Changed For Huskies

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As you all know, Shabazz Napier has no problem speaking his mind. And I respect that — it’s definitely refreshing to hear something that isn’t pre-meditated media talk. Here’s his take from Tuesday.

“No disrespect to them, but this is one of the games you put a ‘W’ by before you even play,” Napier said.

Only problem is, against Providence, it’s not always an easy ‘W.’ In fact, the Friars have nipped the Huskies in five of the past seven meetings.

Andre Drummond (AP)

This one — a brutal 72-70 loss  — hurts the most.

Earlier today, I said UConn needed two wins — any two — to sneak into the Big Dance. I’m not sure that’s the case anymore. I mean, this was a bad loss. Beating Pitt and winning one Big East tournament game (Villanova, Pitt and Providence are among the likely opponents) may not make up for all the bad losses.

It’s funny: I remember witnessing UConn’s 17-point meltdown against Central Florida in the Battle 4 Atlantis at the Bahamas. It was one of the first games I covered on the beat. And I remember thinking “That was one of the most bizarre UConn games I’ve seen. That won’t happen again this year, right?”

On Tuesday, UConn was up 14  with 12 minutes to play. Providence caught fire, and the Huskies — dead last in the Big East in 3-point defense — fell into another downward spiral. It always seems to start with the 3-point shot.

Sometimes you just say “Well, the other team shot the hell out of it. Not much we can do.”

But after a while, when it happens time and time again, it can’t be a coincidence. It has to be something you’re doing wrong. Andre Drummond was on LaDontae Henton, who primarily played the perimeter. Drummond has guarded those types of players — Kevin Jones, Jae Crowder — and, simply put, it’s not the best matchup for him. He’s super-athletic, yes, but his shot-blocking presence is completely negated when he’s chasing around Henton, Jones or Crowder.

Or Keith Clanton, remember him? The UCF big man knocked down 4-of-5 long-range attempts in that November disaster.

I remember calling the loss to UCF a “colossal meltdown.”

Turns out it was just a preview of the 2011-12 season.

After that game, I wrote “How will this team respond in tight situations? Furthermore, who can step up in a time of need?”

Three months later, there still aren’t definitive answers.

During Monday’s media session,  Blaney said something interesting: “It seems to me that they handle adversity pretty well, but they sometimes just let it go and don’t play together for periods of time. And that’s been a problem most of the year.”

Indeed, they “just let it go.”

Their offense deteriorates — UConn scored 38 points in the paint, but failed to get the ball inside when the snowball kept growing — their body language becomes discouraging and, worst of all, they get beat to loose balls and offensive rebounds.

It was that way when UConn lost to UCF in November, and on the second-to-last day of February, not much has changed. As a result, there may not be any Madness in March. At least not in Storrs.

Categories: General

Live Coverage: UConn at Providence

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Categories: General

UConn’s NCAA Tournament Scenarios

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After tonight’s game against Providence, we’ll have a much better idea of where UConn’s NCAA tournament chances stand. Until then, let’s look at a few different scenarios and project whether or not the Huskies will be dancing.

*Note: At the moment, ninth-seeded UConn would play DePaul, then Seton Hall and then a third go-around with top-seeded Syracuse. For the sake of keeping this post under the length of a Grantland feature, we’ll assume that if the Huskies reach the Big East semifinal, they’re in. We’ll also assume that West Virginia beats DePaul and South Florida to close the year 9-9 and Seton Hall knocks off the Blue Demons to finish 9-9 as well. This affects UConn’s seeding.

SCENARIO ONE: Loss at Providence, Win vs. Pitt, Win vs. Providence  (BET), Win vs. Louisville  (BET), Loss to Syracuse (BET)

BREAKDOWN: UConn hasn’t won two games in a row since early January.  It’s very possible the Huskies will drop one of the remaining two, which could slide them to 10th place in the Big East (West Virginia is also 7-9, and the Mountaineers finish up with DePaul and South Florida).

PROJECTION: In. They’ll have 20 wins and the nation’s toughest schedule. That merits an eight or nine seed.

Andre Drummond (AP)

*

SCENARIO TWO: Loss at Providence, Loss vs. Pitt, Win vs. Villanova (BET), Loss vs. Cincinnati (BET)

BREAKDOWN: With this team, you can’t rule anything out. Providence is always a tough place to play and it’s no guarantee UConn will beat Pitt, either. If the Huskies get the 10 or 11 seed in the Big East tourney, the road isn’t quite as easy.

PROJECTION: Out. Can’t lose three of your last four games.

*

SCENARIO THREE: Win at Providence, Win vs. Pitt, Win vs. DePaul (BET), Loss vs. Seton Hall

BREAKDOWN: Seton Hall (8-9) probably won’t lose its regular season finale against DePaul. If both teams finish 9-9, the Pirates will get the tiebreaker because A. they split head-to-head and B. Seton Hall beat Georgetown, the No. 3 seed in the Big East. UConn lost to each of the top three seeds. So, to make it simple: UConn probably won’t advance past the No. 9 seed.

PROJECTION: In. Bottom line: If UConn gets to 20 wins, its safe. Again, it’ll be looking at an 8, 9 or 10 seed.

*

SCENARIO FOUR: Win at Providence, Win vs. Pitt, Loss vs. DePaul (BET)

BREAKDOWN: OK, now things are getting a little silly. A loss to DePaul? The Blue Demons stink. As we learned last year, anything is possible in the Big East tournament.

PROJECTION: In (Barely). If this happened, CBS would undoubtedly have cameras on the Huskies as they watched Selection Sunday. UConn might even be one of the last four in. But I think 19 wins is enough given the soft bubble.

*

SCENARIO FIVE: Loss at Providence, Win vs. Pitt, Loss vs. Villanova (BET)

BREAKDOWN: This would be a back-breaker.

PROJECTION: NIT.

*

SCENARIO SIX: Win at Providence, Loss vs. Pitt, Win vs. Villanova  (BET), Loss vs. Louisville (BET)

BREAKDOWN: Again, with a 2-2 finish, UConn will be squarely on that dreaded bubble.

PROJECTION: In…by the skin of their teeth.

*

Today’s lesson? I think UConn needs two more wins — whether they come in the regular season or league playoffs — to earn a tournament bid.

Check back here for updates from the Providence game tonight.

Categories: General

Notes/Quotes from Feb. 27: “You have to win games at this level, you can’t just play well, so we need these two games coming up.”

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If the UConn Huskies get to 19 wins, they’ll be dancing. Given the weak bubble, their No. 1 strength of schedule and their six wins against the Top 50, I don’t see any possible way they’ll be excluded.

Problem is, there are only two more regular season games remaining. And UConn, which hasn’t put together consecutive victories since early January, is stuck on 17 wins.

Yes, the loss to Cuse was encouraging (it was certainly the best half UConn has played this year), but there’s work to be done.

The Huskies are on their way to Providence for a crucial late-season matchup against a team that always seems to give them trouble.

Some quick notes from Monday’s practice:

* Associate head coach George Blaney said Pat Calhoun called following Jim’s surgery and delivered some good news.

“Pat called and said they were really pleased with what went on in the procedure,” Blaney said. “At the time she called, he was still in recovery. They were hoping he’d be feeling really good when he gets out of recovery. Everything looks encouraging. I believe he’ll be home sometime tomorrow and then we’ll take it day-to-day from there.”

* Shabazz Napier (zero points Saturday) was back with the starting five in practice and Ryan Boatright was running with the second team. Blaney said he “wasn’t sure” of the starters for Tuesday.

* At 17-11, UConn is in dire need of a few wins to close out the year.

“I don’t think there’s anybody that doesn’t know that we need to win games,” Blaney said. “Coach (Calhoun) has been saying it before he left. I’ve been saying it since I took the team. You have to win games at this level, you can’t just play well, so we need these two games coming up.”

* Roscoe Smith has provided a nice boost for the Huskies in the past two games. As Blaney pointed out, he’s the only Husky capable of guarding post players and wings — and any hybrid who can play multiple positions.

“I love what (Smith) is bringing to the table right now, love his physical aspect, love his passion,” Blaney said. “He made some big-time plays the other day.”

Categories: General

Jim Calhoun undergoes successful surgery

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UConn issued the following release about the successful surgery Jim Calhoun underwent today in New York City:

STORRS (February, 27, 2012) – University of Connecticut men’s basketball coach Jim Calhoun underwent successful surgery Monday morning to address foraminal spinal stenosis, a lower back condition which has forced him to take an extended medical leave of absence.

The procedure, performed at Beth Israel Medical Center in New York City, removed a large extruded disk fragment that was pressing on the spinal nerve and decompressed the area around the nerve. The surgery took approximately two hours and doctors expect the Hall of Fame coach to make a full recovery. He will remain hospitalized overnight and is expected to be released on Tuesday.

“I am very fortunate to have been treated by three of the very best surgeons,” Calhoun said. “My heartfelt thanks to them and the entire Beth Israel community, who have made every effort to ensure my stay is as comfortable as possible.

“Lastly, thank you to the people across Connecticut and beyond who have reached out to offer their support. It means a great deal.”

Calhoun is expected to recuperate at home after his release from the hospital, where his recovery will be monitored by his personal physician. His coaching status will be evaluated on a day-to-day basis.

UConn will play its final two games of the regular season Tuesday night at Providence and Saturday at home against Pittsburgh, then will participate in the BIG EAST Championship next week at Madison Square Garden.

Categories: General

UConn On The Bubble: Feb. 27

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A win over Syracuse would have all but clinched a tournament berth for UConn. Instead, the Huskies (17-11, 7-9) need to win out to finish with a .500 Big East record.

Here’s my take: That loss to Syracuse was the best game the Huskies played all year. I think UConn needs two more wins — not necessarily two regular season wins — to earn an at-large bid. The field is relatively weak this year and UConn’s strength of schedule/RPI pushes it ahead of teams with similar records.

Here’s UConn’s tourney resume as of Feb. 27:

RECORD: 17-11 (7-9 Big East)

BEST WINS: at Notre Dame, vs. Harvard, vs. Florida State, vs. West Virginia

WORST LOSSES: at Rutgers, at Louisville (by 21), at Seton Hall, at Tennessee

SOS: 1

RPI: 29

REMAINING GAMES: at Providence, vs. Pittsburgh

TODAY’S PROJECTIONS:

ESPN — No. 10 seed

CBS — No. 8 seed

Sports Illustrated — No. 10 seed

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING:

SI: “For the better part of the second half Saturday night in Storrs, the host Huskies demonstrated why so many people thought in November that they could repeat as national champions.” – Frank Burlison

CBS: “At Providence and then home vs. Pittsburgh closes out the regular season for the nation’s most underachieving team. Then it’s a first-round game in the Big East tournament against a fellow conference doormat. Realistically, that won’t be enough. Another win, a fourth in a row, will likely be required for some semblance of comfort. Getting to three wins in MSG would definitely get UConn into the tournament. That’s the big-picture goal now.” — Matt Norlander
USA TODAY: “The Huskies remain pretty comfortably in the field, despite recent poor performances and a sub-.500 conference record. Look at those six Top 50 wins!” — Nicole Auerbach
Categories: General
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