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“Bombogenesis” imminent in New England blizzard

Friday, February 8, 2013 by:Eric Berger
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The blizzard has begun.

Most airlines have canceled flights into Boston, New York and other northeastern United States cities. Trucks are rolling over on freeways. It’s begun snowing throughout Manhattan.

Harlem at 1:30 p.m. CT. (Erik Pindrock, Twitter)

And in the parlance of Boston forecasters, bombogenesis is imminent. Look that one up, non-weather nerds. It’s a real word.

Let’s start with the big picture. Earlier today NASA released a satellite image showing how two low-pressure systems were coming together to form this powerful Nor’easter.

How the massive winter storm is coming together. (NASA)

In this image there are two distinct storms, a western frontal system stretching across the United States and a coastal low pressure system.

The two systems can also be seen in the infrared satellite image below, upon which the fronts have been superimposed. Note the frontal system is generally linear and moving east-southeast, while the coastal low is a more of a cyclonic feature, rotating about a point of the Maryland coast.

Infrared satellite with surface observations and fronts superimposed. (NOAA HPC)

To see both of these systems in motion, check out this really cool loop of visible satellite images.

What’s now happening is that the coastal low is swallowing the frontal system and becoming a still more powerful storm. And it’s going to move northward, up the New England coast.

A foot of snow is possible in New York City, and much more — in excess of 2 feet — is likely in Connecticut and Massachusetts. The map below shows the probability of at least 1 foot of snowfall according to the Boston office of the National Weather Service.

Probability of at least 1 foot of snow. (National Weather Service)

As you can see the probability in Boston is 100 percent. Yep, that’s a big storm. It’s going to be a long, cold night up there.

Be safe, y’all.

Major blizzard on track for Northeast today and tonight

Friday, February 8, 2013 by:Eric Berger
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Good morning. The northeastern United States remains on track for a major blizzard this afternoon and evening.

Here’s a look at the current radar, which shows the storm moving north, and a rain-into-snow transition occurring as the storm moves into New York.

Radar as of 7 a.m. CT. (chron.com)

There are two reasons to think (hope may be the better word) the storm won’t be quite as significant for parts of the Northeast.

For one, several models now bring the storm on a slightly more easterly track, which would keep some of the storm’s heaviest snowfall offshore. One of the models with the most aggressively eastward track is the Global Forecast System. The image below shows accumulated precipitation (in inches, in liquid) for the next five days.

Five-day precipitation accumulation forecast from the GFS model. (IPS MeteoStar)

Now 2 inches of rain is still significant snowfall — about 20 inches — but as you can see the very heavy amounts of snowfall are along a corridor to the east of land.

Other models, such as the European forecast model, are still following a more westward track, and this remains entirely possible if not likely. Under this scenario, portrayed below, in excess of 2 feet of snow should still falls across parts of Connecticut and Massachusetts.

Two-day snowfall accumulation map, ECMWF, 12 model. (Weather Bell)

Another reason for southern areas of the affected region, including New York City, to feel slightly better about this storm is that the initial precipitation from it will be coming in liquid form this morning. As the New York City National Weather Service suggested this morning, that could knock as much as six inches of snow accumulation in parts of the city.

With that said, this remains a severe storm, and its effects this afternoon, evening and tonight will be substantial. Find somewhere safe to hunker down beginning this afternoon.

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