Summer solstice arrives at 1:04 a.m, on Friday – the official start of summer.

But the last few days have certainly felt like summer with temperatures in the 80s and afternoon thunderstorms.

And get this … the National Weather Service says temperatures in Alaska will be warmer today than in Connecticut.

According to Associated Press., the heat wave hitting Alaska may not rival the blazing heat of Phoenix or Las Vegas, but to residents of the 49th state, the days of hot weather feel like a stifling oven — or a tropical paradise.

With temperatures topping 80 degrees in Anchorage, and higher in other parts of the state, people have been sweltering in a place where few homes have air conditioning. They’re sunbathing and swimming at local lakes, hosing down their dogs and cleaning out supplies of fans in at least one local hardware store. Mid-June normally brings high temperatures in the 60s in Anchorage, and just a month ago, it was still snowing. Tuesday, the official afternoon high in Anchorage was 81 degrees, breaking the city’s record of 80 set in 1926 for that date.

This photo taken Monday, June 17, 2013, shows people sunning at Goose Lake in Anchorage, Alaska. Parts of Alaska are setting high temperature records as a heat wave continues across Alaska. Temperatures are nothing like what Phoenix or Las Vegas gets, but temperatures in the 80s and 90s are hot for Alaska, where few buildings have air conditioning. (AP Photo/Mark Thiessen)

All-time highs were recorded elsewhere, including 96 degrees on Monday 80 miles to the north in the small community of Talkeetna, purported to be the inspiration for the town in the TV series, “Northern Exposure” and the last stop for climbers heading to Mount McKinley, North America’s tallest mountain. One unofficial reading taken at a lodge near Talkeetna even measured 98 degrees, which would tie the highest undisputed temperature recorded in Alaska.

That record was set in 1969, according to Jeff Masters, meteorology director of the online forecasting service Weather Underground. “This is the hottest heat wave in Alaska since ’69,” he said. “You’re way, way from normal.”

It’s been a crazy weather month in Connecticut, too. In fact, the weather has been crazy all year with Superstorm Sandy and the Great Blizzard of 2013.

And let’s not forget all that rain!

Bridgeport recorded another .08 of an inch of rain Tuesday. That brings the rainfall total up to 8.62 inches for the month of June. That’s more than 6 inches above June’s normal rainfall, bringing it to the fourth rainiest June on record.

Today, the chance of thunderstorms will be slightly lower than it was on Tuesday. It will be mostly sunny, with a high near 75.

Tonight: Clear, with a low around 47.

Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 77.

Thursday night: Mostly clear, with a low around 53.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

Friday night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 58.

Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 80.

Today’s pollen count is a 3 in the low/medium range. The air quality is rated good.

The UV index is an 8, meaning very high. Don’t forget the sunscreen.

On Long Island Sound:

Today, north winds will be kicking it between 10 and 15 knots. Waves will be one foot or less.

High tides is around 8 a.m and 8:15 p.m. Low tide is around 2 p.m.

Sounds like an Hawaiian weather forecast.

Even baked Alaska.

Aloha!

From the National Weather Service:

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM. THIS COULD.

LEAD TO URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. IN ADDITION…THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS.

National Weather Service photo: Great photo taken at the office by one of our forecasters! This was the storm that moved to our east across the North Forth of Long Island. The picture was taken around 320pm.

A beatutiful start to the day today!

There was some fog in the river valleys this morning and the sky was streaked with red clouds. There are some benefits to getting up so early.

The sun rose at 5:19 a.m. and will set at 8:29 p.m.

Although we’ve got a couple of days before summer officially arrives, today will certainly feel like summer with temperatures near 80.

Summer officially arrives at 1:04 a.m. on Friday. The Old Farmer’s Almanac has a nice page on the first day of summer. You can check it out here.

Both Thursday and Friday will have the longest days of the years; The length of day will be 15 hours, 5 minutes and 39 seconds.

That’s quite a difference from the shortest day last Dec. 21 when the day was only 9 hours, 15 minutes and 15 seconds.

Today will be warm, partly sunny wit a chance of showers popping up. Pretty much like Monday.

The National Weather Service forecast: A  chance of showers and thunderstorms between 11 a.m. and 5 p.m., then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5 p.m.

Tonight showers are likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 11 p.m, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly between 11 p.m. and 2 a.m. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56.

The rest of week is looking good; pretty much the same forecast … sunny with a chance of shows and warm temperatures.

High tide will be around 7 a.m. and 7:30 p.m. today. Long Island Sound water temperature is 61 degrees.

On the Sound winds will be about 5 knots with sees 1 foot or less.

It’s still too early for a weekend forecast, but one thing is certainly, there’s a full moon that will be rising.

After a sunny start to the day, the National Weather Service has issued an advisory that a line of strong thunderstorms is moving into Fairfield County from New York.

Several storm cells are likely to form out of the warm, moist air and the weather advisory is for the entire state, until 9 p.m.

Here is the text of the NWS warning:

THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WHILE THE 
ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL BE HIT AND MISS...A FEW OF THE 
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROBABLY BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE PRIMARY 
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING 
STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS. DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS 
ALSO EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...BRIEF 
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE STREET 
FLOODING. 
THE PRIMARY THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE 
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM THIS EVENING. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES 
SHOULD BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER INDOORS IF A THUNDERSTORM 
APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

And here’s the outlook for the rest of the week:

• A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms before 2 a.m. Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. West wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.
• Tuesday: A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Light and variable wind becoming south 5 to 8 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Tuesday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms before midnight, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 30 percent.
• Wednesday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind around 9 mph.
• Wednesday Night: Clear, with a low around 55.
• Thursday: Sunny, with a high near 77.
• Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
• Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.

It’s been a wet June, but not the wettest just yet. But that could change since we’ve got another 16 days left in June.

The normal June rainfall for Bridgeport is 1.83 inches. But this month, 7.95 inches of rain has fallen.

So far, this June ranks as the fourth wettest June on record. The wettest June was in 1972 when 17.7 inches fell in Bridgeport, according to WXedge.com

This NOAA satellite image taken Friday, June 14, 2013 at 1:45 a.m. EDT shows clouds stretching from New England southward into the southeastern United States associated with a large storm system. Rain and thunderstorms will move southeastward with the cold front from the Carolinas to Gulf states. Rain showers associated with the low pressure system continue across New England.

Here are National Weather Service totals from the latest “rain event.”

Prospect     2.72 inches

Danbury      2.25 inches

Meriden       2.18 inches

Bradley airport   2.05 inches

Hartford     1.95 inches

Windham   1.90 inches

Norwalk      1.82 inches

Stratford     1.62 inches

Bridgeport    1.60  inches

Woodbury   1.50 inches

New Haven   1.48 inches

Brookfield    1.16 inches

Naugatuck  1.07 inches

Wallingford    1 inch

New London   .87 of an inch

For a list of other Northeast rainfall totals, click here.

Those living below the Stevenson Dam are living under a flood warning today after several inches of rain soaked the state.

Areas that could be expected by the rising waters include The Maples neighborhood in Shelton and in Oxford where the river turns south just below the dam.

John Millo, the emergency management director for the city of Shelton, said at 12:30 p.m. on Friday that no evacuation of The Maples had been ordered– but that one was still possible.

“The river has been receding but more rain is possible after 3 p.m. and if things heart up we could get thunderstorms,” Millo said. “The concern would be electrical. Some of the (electric) service boxes are outside, or a radio or extension cord could get into the water, energizing it.

“At that point it isn’t a possible drowning we’d be dealing with, but electrocution.”

The river is now at 11.2 feet, flood stage, and is expected to rise higher before receding later today. The river reached its highest point at 5 a.m. Wednesday when it was at 12.39 feet.

A flood warning is also in effect for the Connecticut River south of Hartford.

As of 6 a.m. most of the rain as stopped and skies are clearing,

Showers likely, mainly before 3 p.m. It will remain mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. Northwest wind 9 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70 percent. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

The weekend is looking very good.

Saturday will be sunny, with a high near 78. Northwest wind 7 to 10 mph. On Sunday, there is chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 78. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.

Rain… A LOT of it… is headed our way, adding to what is already one of the wettest Junes on record.

Before the storm even gets here the Housatonic River at the Stevenson Dam was at 12.2 feet, more than a foot above flood stage, the National Weather Service said in an advisory. Minor flooding is already occurring along the Housatonic,

The water level in the river is expected to fall to 11.5 feet by midday, when it will begin to slowly rise again. An area of concern for flooding is The Maples area of Shelton.

There is a flood warning in effect for all of Connecticut and Westchester County, N.Y. from 8 a.m. this morning until Saturday at 6 a.m., the National Weather Service says. Between 2 and 4 inches of rain are expected, and rain will be heavy at times.

There is also a gale warning from 6 p.m. tonight until 11 a.m. Friday morning because of the strong winds that come with the storm. Gusts may reach 25 knots, and Long Island Sound will rise 1 to 2 feet above normal.

A small craft advisory has also been posted.

The National Weather Service’s hazardous weather advisory:

LOW PRESSURE WILL INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES FROM THE OHIO
  VALLEY TODAY...AND PASS SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT
  THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE LOW WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE OUT TO SEA
  ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
  PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WITH RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 1
  1/2 TO 3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...POSSIBLY UP TO 4
  INCHES...DURING THIS TIME. THIS COULD RESULT IN FLOODING OF SMALL
  STREAMS.

Here is the official forecast from the National Weather Service:

TODAY: Rain, with thunderstorms also possible after 3 p.m. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 64. East wind 7 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.

TONIGHT: Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 56. Windy, with a northeast wind 23 to 26 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100 percent. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

FRIDAY: Rain likely before noon, then a chance of showers, mainly between noon and 3 p.m. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 65. Windy, with a north wind 24 to 29 mph decreasing to 17 to 22 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60 percent. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

FRIDAY NIGHT: A slight chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly clear, with a low around 55. Northwest wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20 percent.

SATURDAY: Sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind 10 to 13 mph.

Now, Politico reports, those funds will be found elsewhere — cuts in the satellite program.

Specifically, the proposed cuts would drain the last 2013 funds for a promising U.S.-Taiwan COSMIC-2 satellite program. Such a cut baffled several U.S. forecasters I contacted on Tuesday.

To understand why, it’s worth taking a moment to explain how these new satellites work, and how they have added value to forecasting.

The first generation of six COSMIC satellites (COSMIC-1) was launched in 2006, with the hope of improving both terrestrial and space weather forecasting.

They do so through a technique known as radio occultation (see graphic below), which is based upon the bending of light as it passes through the atmosphere. By measuring the subtle bending of light from a paired GPS satellite, a variety of temperature and humidity measurements can be obtained from through atmosphere.

How radio occultation works. (NCAR)

Such a “vertical profile” of conditions throughout the atmosphere has proven enormously helpful in weather forecasting, perhaps more so than expected.

In this presentation Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service, said the COSMIC-1 satellites have made “fundamental improvements” in forecast models, and said, “COSMIC 2 offers potential for even more of an impact for terrestrial and space weather forecasts.”

During his presentation Uccellini also showed the graphic below, which attributes a 9 percent reduction in error in the European forecast model to the COSMIC-1 satellites.

Factors that contributed to a reduction in European forecast model errors. (ECMWF)

According to the National Center for Atmospheric Research, COSMIC-2 seeks to build on this success by replacing the aging fleet with new satellites equipped with enhanced GPS receivers that are able to generate better quality data.

The satellites should also provide a much richer data set with thousands of more data points throughout the atmosphere. The graphic below provides an idea of how much more information will be available for forecasters and computer forecast models.

A fully implemented Cosmic 2 will offer much more data than the existing satellites. (Louis Uccellini)

So what’s the cost of COSMIC-2? It’s estimated 10-year cost is $420 million, of which Taiwan would pay half. But even that’s misleading, says Cliff Mass, a University of Washington meteorologist.

The really silly thing is that Taiwan will pay for half of it, and the Air Force a quarter.  So their contribution is HUGELY leveraged.  The system is proven.  And an expanded COSMIC network could greatly mitigate the loss of a polar orbiter.  Any rational decision-maker would RUN to make this happen.  But not NOAA management … very dysfunctional.

Whether NOAA’s administration is dysfunctional or not, the agency is also constrained by politics. Politico reported:

Last month NOAA proposed to use an estimated $13.7 million from monies appropriated for improved forecasting after Hurricane Sandy devastated New York and New Jersey last year. But this ran into resistance from the Senate Appropriations Committee leadership, and now a second NOAA effort to scrape together about $1.5 million to begin data processing work this year appears to have been lost as well to avoid any furloughs.

Mass noted that after the Moore tragedy NOAA canceled furloughs for all of its employees, when they could have simply cancelled the furloughs for the NWS forecasters, which would have saved most of the money.

A forecaster within NOAA, himself subject to a furlough, called the decision to delay participation in COSMIC-2, which might ultimately lead to its cancellation, a “major mistake.”

“Losing the second generation of that satellite is very dumb,” he said. “You have to improve both the analysis component and computer abilities to make better forecasts. No COSMIC-2 potentially hurts all global models .”

On Thursday into Friday,  a “widespread soaking rain,” is expected.

From the National Weather Service:

“A strong low pressure system is expected to affect the region tomorrow into early Friday. This will bring the potential for a widespread 2 to 3 inches or rain … with locally higher amounts possible. Isolated strong thunderstorms with gusty winds will also be possible Thursday morning and afternoon.

“The location of heaviest rainfall is unclear at this time. But due to saturated ground from recent heavy rains … if the higher end of the rainfall amounts are realized … widespread urban and small stream flooding issues and significant rises on our main stem rivers could be expected. The saturated ground may also make trees and power lines more susceptible to falling with any stronger wind gusts.”

To read a more detailed discussion of the forecast, click here.

Two to 5 inches of rain would shatter rainfall records for June. Already we’ve received 6.81 inches of rain. The normal rainfall for the month is just 1.57 inches.

A flood warning has been issued for the Housatonic River at the Stevenson Dam, between Oxford and Monroe, until further notice.

Water levels at both Lake Zoar and Lake Lillinonah are being lower at two dams on the Housatonic.

Shelton police said there may be some minor flooding at The Maples, a Shelton riverfront neighborhood.

At noon. the river stage was at 12.1 feet; flood stage is 11 feet.

To monitor the Housatonic’s flood stage, click here.

High temperature today: 78

Sunset: 8:26 p.m.

Sunrise Thursday: 5:19 a.m.

Air quality: Good.

Pollen count: 4.8 medium with oak, hickory and plantain pollen.

High tide: 2:30 p.m. (Bridgeport)

Low tide: 8:38 p.m.

On Long Island Sound

Water temperature, along coast: 62 degrees.

Small craft advisory in effect until 6 p.m. tonight.

Today: NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

Tonight: NW winds 5 to 10 kt…becoming E after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft.

Thu: E winds 5 to 10 kt…increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers…mainly in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu Night: E winds 15 to 20 kt…becoming NE 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm

This has already been one of the wettest Junes on record– But wait, there’s more!

The National Weather Service says to expect more rain later today, and maybe more later in the week. How much, though, depends on a number of factors.

Here’s the good news. There are currently no hazardous weather advisories or warnings for the region.

According to the National Weather Service, the rest of today today will be cloudy, with the high temperature near 80.

Winds could gust as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50 percent. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Low pressure will move eastward across the region today into this evening, bringing additional showers along with some thunderstorms.

There will be a brief break in the wet weather on Wednesday as a weak high pressure system builds in. However, another potential low pressure system coming in from the Midwest may bring more rain on Thursday.

Within the past 24 hours, rainfall measured more than an inch across southwestern Connecticut. Litchfield County received the most rain when nearly 2 inches fell.

FAIRFIELD COUNTY

BRIDGEPORT         1.36 inches

BRIDGEPORT AIRPORT     1.31 inches

NORWALK                              1 inch

DANBURY AIRPORT            1.04 inches

NEW HAVEN COUNTY

NEW HAVEN                1.42 inches

NORTH HAVEN           1.18  inches

The heaviest rain held on Long Island. Westhampton beach recorded 2.23 inches of rainfall.

June has already become one of the wettest Junes on record. Normal rainfall for June 1.43 inches. As of 5 p.m. Wednesday, this month’s rainfall was 5.54 inches.

Here is a link to live radar in southern New England.