The Bronx View

As the Yankees head out to the west coast to begin the final leg of the regular season, the Chicken Littles of the press are using this slow news day to extol the worst case scenarios ahead.

Don’t listen to them.  While there is a remote, remote possibility that the Yankees could somehow collapse and lose the AL East to the Red Sox, it is pretty far from likely.

Consider the Yankees possible outcomes:

Now the Red Sox possible outcomes:

Eight of the Red Sox seventeen total possible outcomes are already eliminated because the Yankees have 94 wins already, leaving nine possible outcomes.

That leaves us with this scenario:

Six of the Yankees fifteen scenarios (although unlikely) would eliminate the Red Sox regardless of what Boston does.

Similarly, Boston would need to go on a 14-3 type tear while the Yankees simultaneously went 6-9.

Looking at the schedule, it’s not completely inconceivable that the Red Sox could go on a run.  In their final few weeks of the season, the Sox face Baltimore, Kansas City, the Yankees, Toronto, and Cleveland.  Remove the Yankees from that equation and those teams have a .421 winning percentage.  Boston has gone a combined 39-15 against those teams (including the Yankees) for a .722 winning percentage.  That’s a pretty high percentage, even against those teams.  Apply a .722 winning percentage to their last 17 games and you get a record of 12 – 5.

Looking at the Yankees schedule, they face Seattle, the Angels, Boston, Kansas City, and Tampa Bay.  Remove the Red Sox from that list and the teams have a .505 winning percentage.  The Yankees have gone a combined 26 – 21 against those teams (including the Red Sox) for a .553 winning percentage.  Apply that percentage to the Yankees last 15 games and you get a record of 8-7.

If the Yankees go 8-7, the Red Sox will need to go 16-1 just to tie the division.  If the Red Sox go 12-5, the Yankees would have to go 4-11 for the Red Sox to tie.

Of course, past performance doesn’t guarantee future results.  The Yankees themselves went 0-8 against the Red Sox before winning six of the last seven.

Looking at all the possible outcomes, though, it would take some extraordinary play from the Red Sox and some extraordinarily bad play from the Yankees to give Boston the AL East.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.