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Archive for September, 2009

Francisco Cervelli Making Bid for 2010 Roster

Another walk-off, another come from behind win.  Another hero.

While the news and blogosphere swirl with concern about another Yankee rotation failing in the postseason, the Yankees themselves chug chug chug along.

The last ten games for the Yankees haven’t been a particularly encouraging run and yet, they’re 6-4 over that span.

On Wednesday, the Yankees followed up the previous night’s brawl with another walk-off win, this time from the third string catcher.

Francisco Cervelli has spent the last four seasons in the Yankees minor league system.  He has never been projected as the next Mike Piazza, but then Piazza was drafted in the 62nd round as a favor to Tommy Lasorda.

Cervelli may never be confused for the former Met at the plate, but he can certainly hold his own behind it.

Cervelli made his first appearance for the big club as a September call up in 2008, long after the Yankees season was over.  He had spent most of the season on the disabled list, the result ofa spring training collision at the plate when the Tampa Bay Rays Elliot Johnson dropped his shoulder and bowled over Cervelli, breaking his right wrist.

The Yankees were livid.  While Brian Cashman has spent the better part of the last few years collecting catchers for the minor league system, Cervelli resided at number three on the depth chart, an important position considering the ages of Jorge Posada and his backup, Jose Molina.

Bad turned to worse as Jorge Posada’s shoulder problems became worse that originally thought, forcing the veteran catcher to shutdown his season in prep for 2009.  Chad Moeller, a journeyman catcher became Molina’s backup, until even Molina suffered a brief stint on the DL.

In a last ditch effort to save the season, Cashman acquired Ivan Rodriguez from the Tigers just before the trade deadline for struggling reliever Kyle Farnsworth.  Pudge failed to find the fountain of youth and the Yankees missed the playoffs for the first time in 14 years.

All Francisco Cervelli could was watch from the sidelines, his opportunity missed and wrist in a cast because a floundering Rays prospect had to prove his grit with his shoulder rather because he couldn’t with his bat.

A year later, opportunity has knocked again for Cervelli and this time he was healthy.  Jose Molina went down for more than a month in May with a quad strain, while Jorge Posada went down almost simultaneously with a strained hamstring.  Suddenly, the door opened for Cervelli again, only this time he became the Yankees starting catcher for almost a month.

Cervelli performed better than the Yankees could have expected.  His offensive numbers weren’t great, but defensively he exceeded his reputation as a good backstop and was behind the plate as the Yankees starters began to right the ship from their struggles in April.

Cervelli also played with a fire and intensity that got fans excited.  It’s easy to confuse enthusiasm with performance, but Cervelli’s approach seemed to rub off on the other players.  It can’t reasonably be said that Cervelli’s excitement at catching at the big league level made the team better, but his presence certainly didn’t hurt.

Cervelli’s stint with the big club from May through the All Star break may have signaled the end of Jose Molina’s tenure with the Yankees as backup catcher.  Molina has been the most solid catcher the Yankees have had in the backup role since Posada himself and Joe Girardi slowly swapped positions during the 1990′s championship runs.  Indeed, Molina has proven himself time and again to be an excellent defensive backstop, even at his advancing age.

Molina will be 35 next season and has shown some signs of breaking down.  He isn’t made for the rigors of playing everyday and has admitted that he doesn’t train for it.  Offensively, Molina has been passable given his role and lack of catching depth in the major leagues, but he is way below league average.

Cervelli has been below league average, too, but he’s only 23 years old.  He has the potential to improve, maybe not dramatically, but enough to give the Yankees a strong defensive backup who can handle the bat decently.

It could be a short-lived run for Cervelli depending on how the rest of the Yankees farm system develops:

  1. Jesus Montero is a 19 year old offensive beast who made the jump from single A Advanced to AA and barely missed a beat.  He projects as one of the best prospects in the game right now but there are doubts about whether he can catch at the major league level because of his size and skills.  Montero is listed at 6′ 4″ 225 lbs, which means you can probably add another ten to twenty pounds to that total.  If he’s able to field his position at even a little below average level, the Yankees would be thrilled to plug his bat in that position in a couple of years.
  2. Austin Romine is 20 years old this season and projects as the more rounded player when combining offensive and defensive skills.  He’s strong behind the plate and good hitter with promises of power.  He had a good year at the single A Advanced level and hopefully will get a look at AA next season.

Cervelli’s long term position with the Yankees is directly tied to the success of Montero and Romine.  Many scouts have predicted that Montero isn’t long for the catching position, but with first base blocked and concerns about his speed in the outfield, the Yankees are determined (and rightfully so) to try and keep his powerful bat at the typically weak hitting catcher position.

For now, Cervelli seems to be a lock to take over Jose Molina’s position, who’s contract runs out after this year.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Breaking Down the Yanks-Jays Brawl

Welcome to Fight Night here at The Bronx View!

I’m not going to go into too much detail about the fight.  There’s so many videos and stories out there that anything I add to recap the incident is redundant.

A few thoughts:

  • Posada is at fault.  I can understand him getting upset about being thrown behind, especially since it didn’t seem like the previously Blue Jay batters were thrown at. (Melancon seemed more questionable than Mitre, certainly).  He should have just let it go at that.  Inciting a brawl when your team is a few weeks away from the playoffs is a good way to get some key players hurt.  Not smart.
  • That said, Carlson instigated Posada to do something.  When a pitcher backs up a throw from right field, they are supposed to be behind the plate on the third base side.  Carlson put himself in no man’s land on the first base side, directly in the path of a scoring Posada.  You have to assume that was intentional, since he obviously looks towards the approaching Posada twice before the two met.  Carlson said something to Posada as he passed, which could have been more apologetic than antagonizing.  We don’t know.  But Posada threw his elbow out and Carlson continued the conversation by barking back at Posada, who had just been tossed out of the game.
  • Posada shouldn’t have thrown his elbow out, but at the same time, he didn’t exactly punch Carlson in the face.  If Posada had sucker-punched Carlson Darryl Strawberry style, there would be even more reason to blame Posada.  The fact is, Carlson setup the confrontation by putting himself between Posada and the dugout.  He was inviting some type of acknowledgment from Posada, whether good or bad.  Again, maybe what he was trying to say to Posada was less antagonistic and more about, “no offense, gotta protect my mates,” but that probably wasn’t the time to do it.  Posada, running full speed through the plate (which admittedly isn’t that fast) had made up his mind what he was going to do well before Carlson attempted to speak.

So, for once I agree with John Kruk on Baseball Tonight: both players were at fault.  Posada takes a little bit more blame for inciting the fisticuffs.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Annoying Things About the Yankees 2010 Schedule

Major League Baseball announced their 2010 schedules today.  Here’s a few lowlights for the Yankees:

  • The Yankees start the season in Boston for three games.  They then return to Boston for another three games on May 7th.  Boston doesn’t come to New York until May 17th for two games.  Boston doesn’t come back to New York until August 6th, when they play four games.  The last series of the season is three games in Boston that end October 3rd, which should leave the World Series to be played sometime around Groundhog Day.
  • The Yankees hit the west coast in April, playing Oakland and Anaheim.  Then, on June 20th, they play the Mets at home on Sunday and are slated to be in Arizona Monday night.  Undoubtedly, the Mets game will be an 8PM ESPN affair, leaving the Yankees in great shape to go across the country.
  • Ditto July 4th to 5th, where the Yankees have Toronto at home Sunday and the A’s in Oakland on Monday.
  • The good news is, the Yankees will essentially be done with the west coast before the All Star break.
  • Longest stretch without a day off: 20 games from August 6th to the 25th.  They play 16 games before that stretch without a day off and 13 games afterward.  Don’t pray for rain.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Jeter May Not Be the Best Shortstop in AL, Never Mind MVP

Beating… my head… against… wall…:

If Albert Pujols is a slam-dunk to win the National League Most Valuable Player Award, Derek Jeter is not too far behind to take the American League MVP Award.

Ok, stop.

Usually, I will let these things run for the total I think is relevant.  However, that sometimes leads to re-quoting lines to make my argument.  In the case of this article, I’d basically print it twice which might make my brain hurt.  For the sake of efficiency and my own sanity, I will break it down line by line.

Stating that Jeter is right behind Albert Pujols as far as “slam dunks” to win the MVP is just silly.  Stating something doesn’t make it true.

“The sky is green.”

Do you even have to look outside for that one?  I hope not.

Albert Pujols has a 1.137 OPS so far this season.  He leads the National League in games played, runs, home runs, OBP, SLG (and therefore OPS and OPS+), and total bases.  The next closest candidate at first base is Prince Fielder, who has played the same amount of games and has 1 more RBI than Pujols.  Pujols’ OPS is 137 points higher than Fielder and he’s been average to well above average defensively.

As great as Pujols has been, he’s not exactly a slam dunk.  Hanley Ramirez has been putting up another great year at shortstop for the Marlins.  If you’re going to consider Jeter’s numbers at short in the AL (which are well below Hanley’s numbers), you have to at least look at Ramirez in the NL.

Regarding Jeter: he’s having a wonderful year.  There is no arguing it.  That said, percentage-wise, Jason Bartlett of the Tampa Bay Rays has had a better year.  He has also done it in 151 less plate appearances, which probably  gives Jeter the edge as far as shortstops go.

The argument for the AL MVP still has to include Mauer, but this is where it gets interesting.  Mauer leads the AL in batting average, OBP, and SLG.  He’s doing it while playing great defense at the catcher’s position.

But, similar to Jason Bartlett, Mauer has 133 less plate appearances than Jeter, 18 more than Barlett.  That’s not a heck of a lot of difference.

Not many people are eliminating Mauer from the MVP talk because he missed the first 22 games of the season.  In most people’s eyes, his numbers have more than made up the difference created by time lost.

By that logic, it’s almost impossible to put Jeter ahead of Jason Bartlett.  Bartlett has outperformed Jeter in almost every offensive category except plate appearances:

RK PLAYER AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO
1 Derek Jeter 581 101 192 27 1 17 63 26 5 61 80
2 Jason Bartlett 445 77 146 27 6 14 63 24 6 45 89
RK PLAYER BA OBP SLG OPS
1 Derek Jeter .330 .397 .468 .865
2 Jason Bartlett .328 .391 .510 .901
RK PLAYER GP BA TPA PIT P/PA TB XBH HBP IBB GDP SH SF
1 Derek Jeter 138 .330 651 2474 3.8 272 45 4 4 16 4 1
2 Jason Bartlett 121 .328 500 1949 3.9 227 47 3 2 3 4 3
RK PLAYER BA RC RC27 ISOP SECA GB FB G/F AB/HR BB/PA BB/K
1 Derek Jeter .330 107.4 6.99 .138 .279 287 219 1.31 34.2 .094 .760
2 Jason Bartlett .328 90.4 7.75 .182 .324 128 235 0.54 31.8 .090 .510

Bartlett over three years has been just above average defensively using UZR.  Jeter is having his first above average year defensively, but has been below average looking at his last three years.*

* UZR and UZR/150 are defensive metrics found at fangraphs.com.  They are best judged over larger sample sizes, the recomend being three years.

It’s certainly possible that if Bartlett played the entire season, his percentages would go down a bit.  But simply put, if Mauer is part of your MVP conversation, you simply can not pick Jeter as the MVP when he hasn’t even been the best shortstop.

Back to Hal Bodley’s article:

When Jeter passed Lou Gehrig’s record that had stood for more than 70 years over the weekend for most hits by a Yankees player, he sealed the deal.

What influence should Lou Gehrig have over the MVP race of 2009?  Are any of the parameters for any aware, not just the MVP award, based on a player who hasn’t gotten a hit since 1939?

Jeter’s new record was a team record that moved him into 53rd on the all time MLB hit list, a feat that Joe Mauer and Jason Barlett had no chance of achieving.

Sure, you can argue the honor should go to the Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer, or even Jeter’s teammate, Mark Teixeira, but if the Yankees captain isn’t MVP, the voting baseball writers should be investigated.

The two halves of the sentence have little business living together.  If there is an argument to be made for the other two candidates listed, then it probably isn’t so cut and dry.  I guess we’re in the business of blanket statements and not stating facts.  Presenting statistical facts would screw with our headline.

When Jeter collected his 2,722nd hit at Yankee Stadium late Friday night, it was another of those cherished moments in baseball history — like the night in 1985, when Pete Rose passed Ty Cobb’s all-time hits record, or 1995, when Gehrig’s consecutive games record was shattered by Cal Ripken Jr.

Says who?  ESPN?  The YES Network? A dozen New York beat writers who have nothing else to get wordy about because the AL East is a done deal?  If this happened in San Francisco, where the Giants current career leader in hits is Willie Mays at 3187, would it have met nearly as much fanfare?  Doubtful.

Let’s not make people hate the Yankees anymore than they already do by over blowing a team record that has little impact outside anyone in the Yankee universe.  I highly doubt anyone watched those hat-tipping Jeter highlights west of New Jersey and felt anything close to watching Cal lap the field, thanking the fans after breaking Gehrig’s more prestigious record.

The legendary Gehrig, also a Yankees captain, was beloved and respected and for someone with the same admirable qualities to now hold this record is fitting.

Ok.  Inconsequential, but ok.

The MVP Award should go to the player whose leadership and value has contributed to his team’s success more than any other individual. Jeter has been that player for the Yankees as they storm to another AL East title.

Where would the Twins be without Mauer?  Where would the Rays be without Bartlett or Ben Zobrist?  Where would the Tigers be without Miguel Cabrera?

And how to we quantify leadership, exactly?  Do we know that Jeter is more of a leader than Mauer?  Mauer touches the ball more times per game than anyone besides the pitcher.  He must have some leadership qualities if he plays that important a role on defense.

There may be teammates who have higher batting averages, hit more homers, driven in more runs, but no one has been more valuable to the Yankees this season.

So, in the business of scoring runs, we acknowledge that some people have done it better.  But because of leadership, Jeter wins.

Where’s the line, then?  How do we balance leadership against what a player has achieved on the field?  If a player is a great leader but below league average offensively, is he still a valuable player?  What if he is really good offensively but only has some leadership skills?

It’s a slippery slope to start injecting such ridiculous qualities as leadership into an argument about value.  You have no way of measuring leadership and even less way of understanding what effect it has on the other players.

And some players lead by example, such as hitting the snot out of the ball.

The Yankees are the most successful, renowned team in Major League history. When you think of them, the names of Gehrig, Babe Ruth, Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle come to mind. Years from now, Jeter’s name will be uttered in the same breath.

What does that have to do with the MVP argument for 2009?

All those iconic Yankees made their marks, but none collected more base hits in their careers than Jeter. Ruth had 2,518 hits, Mantle had 2,415 and DiMaggio, 2,214. It’s amazing none reached the 3,000-hit standard.

That’s great.  Were you aware that Gehrig still leads Jeter in total bases by 1,100?  In less plate appearances?

Oh, and what does that have to do with the MVP argument for 2009?

It’s been said elsewhere and I’ll say it here: the lifetime achievement award is given out in Cooperstown.  The MVP award goes to the best player of 2009, not 1996 – 2009, not for righting past wrongs, not for breaking miscellaneous  team records.

If, at the end of the season, Jeter’s numbers are truly the best in the AL based on offense, defense, and his position, then he deserves the award.  Right now, that isn’t the case.

UPDATE: In thinking over what I wrote, I realized there was one point I thought about but probably didn’t make.

The plate appearances that Jeter has over Bartlett (now 152)   are important because those appearances have value.  In the case of Jeter, who is a leadoff hitter, those 152 plate appearances mean another 32 games or so.  For Bartlett, who has hit in every position in the order except third and fourth, it means closer to 39 or 40 games.

That’s a significant amount of games, nearly a quarter of a season.  Playing time is essential when talking about these things because your high percentages don’t mean anything if you’re not in the game.

Bartlett has mostly outperformed Jeter in the numbers categories, but Jeter gains an edge because he’s simply played more games.

The juxtaposition I find interesting is the effect Bartlett has on Jeter in light of all the support Mauer is receiving.  If you accept Mauer as a candidate, regardless of his time missed (Mauer has played 120 games to Bartlett’s 122), you have to at least enter Bartlett into the conversation.  Once you do that, Jeter isn’t even close to a slam dunk and is brought down a notch or two.

The final question, then, is how does that loss of playing time effect Mauer’s status?  Tom K in the Google Group made an interesting point a few weeks ago: If Mauer has missed the last month of the season rather than the first, people would be looking at his candidacy in an entirely different light.  MVP awards have been won and lost in the last month.  A player who doesn’t finish the season during pennant races is usually penalized in the voting.

Last I checked, every game is 1 of 162.  Mauer’s absence in April probably would have had as much impact in September.  The difference is in perception.

Mauer’s numbers may be enough to overcome that deficit.  We’ll know soon enough.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Yanks Beat Angels; Speed Got Lucky

Extra!  Extra!  Read all about it!  Yankees beat the Angels!

My goodness.  Touring the beat writers and bloggers who recapped last night’s game, you would thing Davey had slain Goliath.

Typically, the Angels have had the Yankees number over the years.  This much is true.

This year, the Yankees are 3-4 against the Angels.  As a matter of fact, since 2001, the Yankees are 34-44 (.436 win %) against the Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim, California.    Since 2005, when the Angels started lying about their location and renamed themselves the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim,* the Yankees are 17-29 against Scocia’s squad.  So obviously, perpetuating that lie has cost the Yankees.  Obviously.

*According to Google, Anaheim is 27.5 miles away from Los Angeles, a traveling distance of 30 minutes or 1 hour 40 minutes depending on traffic.  Technically, I don’t think that means that Anaheim and Los Angeles reside in the same place.

What’s really cracking me up today is everyone commenting how the Yankees beat the Angels at their own game because Brett Gardner scored on a throwing error to take the lead.  Never mind that Mark Teixeira hit a two run triple and doubled to setup the inning that allowed Gardner to score, etc etc.  No, it was speed.

Well, the attempt at speed almost blew the game.  Take a look at this picture.

The ball clearly had Gardner beat.  If Figgins had wrangled that ball, Gardner would have been out and guilty of one of the many cardinal sins of baseball: don’t get thrown out at third with one out.

In this situation, it worked because Mike Napoli threw wide of the bag. More baseball axioms were then bandied about, this time extolling the virtues of forcing the defense to make a play.

You see, by making the defense make a play, you increase your chances of them screwing up and therefore succeeding at that play, no matter how boneheaded the play itself might have been.  Of course, a routine ground ball to the infield forces the defense to make a play, but I don’t see anyone praising that as a smart attempt to get on base.  The defense only fails in error-like fashion about one in every forty attempts, but go ahead: risk a runner in scoring position on a long shot.

If Napoli hadn’t thrown wide, the second guessing would have been immense:

“How can you pinch run for Teixeira in a tie game?”
“How can you attempt a steal of third with Matsui up and Posada on deck?”

Nobody second guesses when things go right (except me, apparently).  Maybe my dislike of Joe Girardi taints my view of his moves, but if that throw were ten inches closer to the bag and the Yankees wound up losing the game, Girardi would have taken a lot of heat for over-managing the situation.

Maybe that approach is appropriate for Girardi at this stage.  With the playoffs all but locked up for the Yankees, maybe Joe has decided to push some of his players and see what tools he has at his disposal come October.  They’re taking that tactic with Freddy Guzman, who apparently has a shot at making the playoff roster as a pinch runner extraordinaire.

That’s all well and good, but there’s one flaw in that thinking: the Yankees lead the league in wins.  They lead the league in runs scored (by 46 over the Angels).  They lead the league in hits, home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS+, total bases, yada yada yada.

This is not just a good offensive team, this is a borderline great offensive team.  If this team runs into trouble in the postseason, it will likely be the pitching that has failed before it is the offense.

I have no issues with a team knowing how to manufacture runs when needed.  They can’t just rely on the home run, especially in October, where the Yankees probably won’t average 5.75 runs per game while facing the aces of the top teams in the league.

But they will also be facing some very good offenses themselves.  Playing for one run by sacrificing early in the game or risking the second out of the inning at third base are moves that not only handcuff the best offense in the league, but possibly sacrifice precious outs.

This is what has been driving me nuts with Derek Jeter bunting all the time lately. As Peter Abraham blogged recently, Jeter is the Yankees all-time hits leader, yet he is constantly trying to play small ball and move runners over.

It’s a waste of an out.  Sure, Derek could make an out while swinging away, but he’s batting .330 and has an almost .400 on-base percentage.  If you don’t want him hitting in that situation, then who?  ARod wouldn’t be bunting because he’s a power hitter.  That would be unheard of because he hits home runs.  But Jeter has a better batting average and is very close to ARod in on-base percentage.  Both men have an equal chance of getting on base and not making an out, yet no one would ever bunt with ARod.  There is no logic to the thinking.

Not wasting that out gives your lineup another hitter that inning, another opportunity to create more offense.  An offense is nothing without the opportunity to hit.  There’s no reason to take steps to prevent those opportunities from happening.

It is a very real possibility that the Yankees will face a moment or two in the postseason where having a guy like Freddy Guzman or Brett Gardner pinch run and reek havoc on the bases will make the difference in a ballgame.  We’ve seen it before.  It probably isn’t necessary for the Yankees to carry two such players in Gardner and Guzman.  I would think Brett Gardner would be enough.  Let’s just not forget what got the Yankees here in the first place.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Bruney, Robertson Could Play Big Roles In October

George King of the New York Post is reporting that the Yankees have gotten some encouraging news on a talented young reliever:

David Robertson and the Yankees got good news after the reliever had his ailing elbow examined by Dr. James Andrews.

“He won’t be out more than 10 days to two weeks,” Brian Cashman said today. “He should be pitching before September (ends).

“It’s great news. I talked to [his] agent and David is really is pumped. Like everyone else, he wants to be part of it and he wants to be healthy.”

It’s easy to overlook the importance of this news because Robertson, despite pitching quite well this season, remains somewhat of an ignored commodity.  It’s important to note his rate of 13.4 strikeouts per 9 innings is the second highest among all pitchers in baseball with at least 40 innings pitched (behind only Dodgers closer Jonathan Broxton).  He has not allowed an earned run in 12 of his last 14 appearances, and recorded a strikeout in 13 of those games – the lone exception being a 1/3 of an inning stint against Toronto.

If Robertson’s able to return before the season ends, he’d be a lock for a spot on the postseason roster.  A few more dominating appearances between now and the playoffs, and Robertson could really begin to establish himself as a trusted late-inning arm, a role he was on his way to claiming before his elbow ailment knocked him out.

Meanwhile, Brian Bruney has quietly been enjoying a resurgence out of the bullpen.  Since August 1st, Bruney has allowed just 2 earned runs, appearing in 14 games over that span.  You may remember how dominant Bruney looked in April, a month he finished with 12 strikeouts in 8 innings pitched against just 2 walks.  He was knocked out with an elbow injury soon thereafter and returned looking like a shell of his former self, culminating in an 11.81 ERA in July.

Criticize Joe Girardi all you’d like – there’s plenty not to like – but he’s done a nice job guiding Bruney through his struggles.  Throughout it all, his velocity never lagged, which was encouraging; it seemed to be a matter of poor location that was consistently doing him in.  Girardi, realizing the importance of getting Bruney back to being effective, found every opportunity to run him out there and regain his command.  That’s not an easy thing to do while still trying to win every night, and it’s to his credit that Bruney seems to be enjoying a bit of a late-season renaissance.

Getting two middle relievers going might seem like a trifling matter for a team that appears headed for 100 wins before the last week of September.  But aside from solid starting pitching, those beloved turn-of-the-century Yankee championship teams had strong relief pitching in spades – Mendoza, Stanton, Nelson, Rivera, Wetteland, Graeme Lloyd (yeah, that’s right).

The more recent Yankee teams haven’t had that shutdown bullpen to keep them in close and late games.  Either they relied upon a corps consisting of subpar pitchers (Kyle Farnsworth, Tanyon Sturtze, Al Leiter, Scott Proctor) or leaned too heavily upon one talented setup man (Tom Gordon).  This 2009 vintage, led by the indefatigable Mariano Rivera and a dominant Phil Hughes, could have a lot of options for Girardi to call upon in October if Robertson, Bruney, and even Damaso Marte can recover from injury, ineffectiveness, or both.

Ian Collier blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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Sunday Morning Manager – 9/13/09

Football has the Monday Morning Quarterback.  Well, baseball has the… Sunday Morning Manager…?

Yeah, I’m going with that.  Each Sunday we’ll take a moment to quickly address the week, second guess Joe Girardi, and rundown the players of the week.

If it seems like time to worry about AJ Burnett in the playoffs, don’t get too ahead of yourself.

AJ has spent his career as a streaky pitcher, evidenced yet again by this year’s results.  It’s simply how he pitches.  When he has command of his breaking pitches, he can be almost unhittable.  When he doesn’t, hitters sit on his fastball and it becomes a frustrating evening.

The bad news is that Burnett will throw some turkeys.  The good news is, there’s no reason to believe his current slump will last forever.

Many were asking why Damaso Marte was allowed to face six batters on Friday night after the coronation of King Jeter.

The answer is… I don’t know.

Marte has proven to be quite effective against lefties and less so against righties.  He’s also proven that short stints are better for his arm.  When he arrived around the deadline in 2008 alongside Xavier Nady, Girardi was leaving Marte in to face five, six, sometimes nine batters in an appearance.  For some relievers,that’s not a big deal, but Marte wasn’t particularly effective in any of these outings.

Marte wasn’t effective on Friday either, but Girardi left him out there anyway.  It was a curious move considering the long layoff Marte just returned from.  Maybe not overextending him would be a good idea, Joe?

Girardi has always done some funny things with the bullpen that have left me puzzled.  This September, as the Yankees try to figure out how they’ll configure their postseason bullpen, the moves will get more confusing.  It’s not that the Yankees don’t care about winning games right now; there is little danger of the Red Sox catching them at this stage so the focus is on the staff.

It will lead to some frustrating games at times, but the only way to figure out what your pitchers can do its by letting them pitch.

Lost in the great run the Yankees have gone on in the last two months has been the changes in Alex Rodriguez.

His OBP and SLG have been decent for most of the year, but ARod has raised his batting average from .247 on July 31st to .286 as of last Friday.  His home run totals are down a little (only 6 home runs in that 35 game span), but it’s been less feast or famine for ARod.

Interestingly, over the last 35 games, ARod has scored 25 runs and driven in 26 while hitting .361 with only six home runs.  The 35 games previous, ARod hit .270, scored 25 runs, drove in 31 and hit 10 home runs.

The moral of the story?  Batting average ain’t all it’s cracked up to be.


A rundown of the offense over the last two weeks ending this past Friday: *

G PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP
1 Swisher 11 50 13 14 3 0 5 10 0 0 10 8 .350 .480 .800 1.280 32 0
2 Posada 10 37 6 11 2 0 4 12 0 0 4 13 .333 .405 .758 1.163 25 1
3 Rodriguez 10 43 6 17 1 0 2 13 1 1 5 10 .447 .512 .632 1.143 24 0
4 Teixeira 12 52 12 11 2 0 4 9 0 0 6 14 .250 .346 .568 .914 25 0
5 Cabrera 13 50 6 16 4 0 1 10 3 0 2 5 .348 .400 .500 .900 23 1
6 Cano 13 52 7 15 4 0 2 6 0 0 4 10 .319 .365 .532 .897 25 3
7 Pena 6 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 .333 .333 .500 .833 3 1
8 Molina 5 17 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 .357 .471 .357 .828 5 0
9 Jeter 12 58 7 15 3 0 0 3 2 0 9 11 .313 .421 .375 .796 18 3
10 Damon 11 50 9 11 1 0 1 5 0 0 6 11 .250 .340 .341 .681 15 0
11 Hinske 10 29 4 4 0 0 2 3 0 0 3 7 .160 .241 .400 .641 10 0
12 Matsui 11 41 5 10 0 0 0 4 0 0 4 2 .270 .341 .270 .612 10 1
13 Hairston 12 26 5 4 2 0 0 2 0 0 3 2 .190 .308 .286 .593 6 1
14 Gardner 4 11 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 .182 .182 .182 .364 2 0
15 Cervelli 6 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0
16 Duncan 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .000 .000 .000 .000 0 0
* A week isn’t a lot of data so I’m going to run the previous two weeks.

Despite this having been the Week of Derek Jeter, Nick Swisher takes the top spot this week.  Five homers and  ten walks is a pretty good tally.  ARod and Posada both have had very good weeks, Posada’s topped off by a three run pinch hit home run on Friday, a suitable clincher for his good friend Derek Jeter’s coronation game.

The pitchers over the last two weeks:

Rank G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO SO/BB BA OBP SLG OPS TB
5 Sabathia 2 56 50 2 10 0 0 1 1 0 5 19 3.8 .200 .268 .260 .528 13
7 Pettitte 3 78 68 8 11 2 1 2 0 0 8 16 2 .162 .256 .309 .565 21
13 Burnett 2 55 50 7 15 3 0 2 1 0 5 10 2 .300 .364 .480 .844 24
14 Gaudin 2 43 35 4 10 1 1 1 0 1 5 8 1.6 .286 .395 .457 .852 16
2 Aceves 3 30 29 2 4 2 0 0 0 0 1 7 7 .138 .167 .207 .374 6
4 Hughes 5 19 18 1 2 0 0 1 0 1 1 6 6 .111 .158 .278 .436 5
9 Robertson 4 15 13 0 3 1 0 0 0 0 1 6 6 .231 .333 .308 .641 4
16 Chamberlain 3 44 40 7 13 2 1 1 3 0 3 6 2 .325 .386 .500 .886 20
17 Mitre 1 29 27 11 11 2 0 0 1 0 2 5 2.5 .407 .448 .481 .930 13
1 Rivera 4 12 11 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 4 .091 .167 .091 .258 1
18 Ramirez 3 16 14 3 5 2 0 0 0 0 2 4 2 .357 .438 .500 .938 7
6 Dunn 3 14 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 5 3 0.6 .111 .429 .111 .540 1
11 Marte 5 14 13 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 2 .308 .357 .308 .665 4
12 Bruney 6 16 12 1 2 0 0 1 0 0 4 2 0.5 .167 .375 .417 .792 5
3 Albaladejo 4 17 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 .200 .235 .200 .435 3
8 Towers 1 15 14 2 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 .214 .267 .357 .624 5
10 Coke 5 10 9 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 .111 .200 .444 .644 4
15 Melancon 3 19 15 2 5 1 0 0 0 0 3 1 0.33 .333 .474 .400 .874 6

Starter of the week is obviously CC Sabathia.  Two runs over 56 plate appearances makes for a nice week.

Best reliever probably goes to Mariano Rivera although, despite giving up a game tying home run against the Rays, Phil Hughes had a pretty good week as well.

Yankees finish up their series today with the Orioles, then the Angels come in Monday to makeup a rain out game.  Toronto arrives Tuesday for two games and then the Yankees fly to Seattle Thursday for a weekend series starting Friday.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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2009 Yankees: What’s Changed From 2008

Last night was an off day and there’s only so many articles you can post about Derek Jeter before the man starts to bore you.

So, in an effort to find something to write about, I’m throwing together a comparison of this year’s team offensively to last year’s team.

Yes, I know, the season isn’t over yet.  We’re just going to go off of percentages for now.  Numbers in blue are how much better the 2009 did in that category.  Numbers in red are how much worse they did in that category.

Catcher G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .275 .336 .456 .793 .311 120
2008 162 .230 .290 .335 .625 .271 75

.045 .046 .121 .168 .040 45

It’s not hard to figure out that the Yankees missed Jorge Posada in 2008, who only managed 195 plate appearances and then finally succumbed to a shoulder injury.  The brilliant battery trio of Jose Molina, Chad Moeller, and Ivan Rodriguez couldn’t get their OBP above .300, even with Jorge’s .364 contribution in limited duty.

This year, Jorge is posting an OPS of .899, once again brought down by Molina, Kevin Cash, and Francisco Cervelli.  They’re backups so it’s not reasonable to expect much, but it highlights just how valuable Jorge’s bat is to this lineup.

1st Base G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .280 .382 .547 .928 .286 119
2008 162 .246 .349 .460 .809 .268 98

.034 .033 .087 .119 .018 21

Jason Giambi didn’t have a terrible season in 2008 (113 games, .844 OPS).  His replacements, like Richie Sexson, Wilson Betemit, and Morgan Ensberg were not so good.  Disregarding the boost in defensive value Teixeira has brought to first base, having a solid bat there for 150 games this year is a huge upgrade in production.

2nd Base G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .313 .344 .513 .857 .316 125
2008 162 .265 .299 .404 .702 .278 87

.048 .045 .109 .155 .038 38

Cano has had a very good bounce back year, even if he is only batting .211 with runners in scoring position.  Cano’s OBP has always been driven by his average, and this year won’t be much different.  He’s drawing a few more walking in 2009 but not near the 39 he drew in 2007, which still isn’t a lot.  Still, an .862 OPS from your second baseman is pretty good (For comparison’s sake, Dustin Pedroia had an .869 OPS during his 2008 MVP season and currently sits at .812 for 2009).

3rd Base G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .269 .376 .445 .821 .312 118
2008 162 .283 .364 .511 .875 .311 125
-.014 .012 -.066 -.054 .001 -7

And on your left, the effect Cody Ransom can have on your roster…

ARod, despite not having one of his great seasons, is still posting a .920 OPS.  His replacements for the first 39 games of 2009, Cody Ransom and Angel Berroa, had .585 (!) and .356 (!!!!!!!!!!) OPS respectively.

If you were one of those people who thought the Yankees were better off without ARod this spring, please go out back and give yourself a stern talking to.

SS G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .324 .389 .464 .853 .355 138
2008 162 .295 .359 .402 .761 .333 113

.029 .030 .062 .092 .022 25

It’s been a very good year for Jeter.  This is his second best season so far since 2000, when he had a .896 OPS (in 2006, he had a .900 OPS).

A lot of Jeter’s troubles over the last few years have been attributed to leg problems.  Indeed, Jeter’s stolen base attempts this year are much higher than ’07 or ’08 and his success rate is better, too.  He’s also walking a bit more and striking out a bit less, possibly an adjustment he has made in his approach since taking over the lead off position (I don’t normally buy into those things but I have a pretty good feeling Jeter does).

Whatever his approach, it’s working.

LF G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .283 .359 .507 .866 .295 119
2008 162 .284 .349 .427 .776 .317 98

-.001 .010 .080 .090 -.022 21

Most of the time in left field this year has been Johnny Damon’s (118 our of 141 games).  Damon only started 87 games in left in 2008, with some starts going to Melky Cabrera, Xavier Nady, and Hideki Matsui.

Damon hasn’t exactly impressed defensively this season, although his defensive metrics for 2007 and 2008 were surprisingly good.  Damon has also thrived in the new Yankee Stadium, giving the Yankees reason to consider bringing him back on a short term deal.

CF G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .273 .337 .414 .751 .298 99
2008 162 .261 .320 .391 .711 .281 89

.012 .017 .023 .040 .017 10

The tandem of Melky Cabrera and Brett Gardner have been almost exactly league average, with Melky carrying a little bit of Brett’s weight.  What’s interesting is that many Yankee fans were disgruntled with Melky Cabrera last season after his third year of offensive decline at the age of 23.  Looking at these comparisons, the low batting average on balls in play (BAbip) may mean bad luck played as much a part as anything else.  The differences between 2008 and 2009 would appear to be not so great if bad luck was the case.

RF G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 141 .257 .368 .492 .860 .281 116
2008 162 .290 .362 .451 .812 .326 104

-.033 .006 .041 .048 -.045 12

Bobby Abreu got most of the starting time in right field in 2008.  Many fans lamented why the Yankees didn’t resign him, wondering what we could expect from Xavier Nady and occasionally Nick Swisher.

Well, Nady will probably never wear pinstripes again due to injury and Swisher has taken the job.  He’s done a pretty good job, too.

The OPS listed above for 2009 includes Nady, Melky, and Jerry Hairston, Jr.  Swisher’s OPS is actually .881.

Consider this: Bobby Abreu has been called a steal for the Angels this season, making $5 million with an .830 OPS.  Swisher has an .881 OPS and is making $5.3 million.

Do you miss Bobby Abreu now?

DH G BA OBP SLG OPS BAbip sOPS+
2009 132 .263 .355 .495 .850 .267 116
2008 153 .282 .378 .461 .839 .314 118
-.019 -.023 .034 .011 -.047 -2

Jason Giambi shared in some of the DH duties in 2008 which helps raise the OBP a little bit.  Even with that, Hideki Matsui, who has had the majority of DH at-bats, has had a strong season with an OPS of .866.  It’s a bit surprising as Matsui has been battling knee problems for the last two years, making him essentially a one tool player.  Heis a free agent at the end of the season and likely will not be returning to the Yankees because of that, but he obviously still has some pop in his bat.

Strangely (or maybe not so much), the DH position, a slot devoted to hitting, ranks sixth in offensive production for the team.  DH’s just aren’t what they used to be.

Quick and dirty math tells us something pretty revealing out the 2009 Yankees compared to 2008: out of the 54 categories listed above, the 2009 Yankees are better in 43 of them.  OPS can be a bit redundant when SLG and OBP are involved, so removing that still makes the 2009 team better in 35 out of 45 categories.

There is some evidence of luck on the 2009 team based on their BAbip, but the offensive output of the infield has been truly remarkable.  If you factor in just ARod’s slash stats to the infield, they have produced an OPS of .623higher than the 2008 team.  Across five positions, that’s an average of 104 points per position.  That’s pretty impressive.

Scott Ham blogs about the Yankees here and at TheBronxView.com. He also hosts The Bronx View Yankee Podcast.  He can be reached at feedback@thebronxview.com.

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