The Bronx View

I’ve been debating a full blown breakdown of the Yanks and Angels American League Championship Series that starts Friday, but there are so many great resources (including River Ave Blues very detailed breakdown) that I don’t think I’ll be adding much insight to the blogosphere.

So instead, we’re just going to tackle a few of the outstanding issues leading into the series.

Matt over at Fack Youk sheds some light on the Bobby Abreu love that has poured out over the last few months. Indeed, reports of Abreu’s resurgence have been greatly exaggerated. Also consider that, while Abreu’s .390 OBP sure is nice, his .435 slugging percentage is less so. Where his defense looked like it might have actually improved the first half of the year, his UZR has dropped down into the -4s. Last season’s UZR of -25.3 might have been a fluke, although Dewan’s +/- had Abreu at -12 runs and -10 this year.

As Matt points out, don’t believe the hype (or tripe) FOX spits at you during the ALCS:

In this post yesterday, Rob Neyer, vamping on Tyler Kepner’s piece in The Times, pointed out that the Angels walked 66 more times this year than last, boosting their walk rate from 7.8% to 8.7% and rising from 11th in the AL in OBP back to third, where they had finished in 2007. Yet Neyer also notes that the difference can be entirely attributed to the performance of Abreu alone, who had 65 more walks than the man he replaced – Garrett Anderson, a notorious free swinger whose career high in walks is a whopping 38. In addition to Abreu, Chone Figgins walked 39 more times this year than in 2008. So outside of Figgins and swapping Anderson for Abreu, the rest of the Angels walked 38 fewer times than they did in 2008.

Joba appears to be back in the bullpen for the remainder of the postseason and that’s the right decision. It’s been left up in the air whether Gaudin or Joba could possibly start game four but that seems more like a courtesy to Joba than an actual decision. Joba has shown a little bit of fire coming out of the pen and has stated that mentally, it is easier for him, which may be the best thing the Yankees have heard in awhile. The starter experiment with him and Hughes will still continue in 2010, but for now, Joba gives the Yankees a pretty good bullpen.

Johnny Damon probably won’t give up any starts to Brett Gardner, at least, not in game one. Damon had a terrible ALDS and didn’t look particularly good in the field. That doesn’t mean Brett Gardner is ready for the playoffs, or that the Yankees should feature Brett Gardner and Melky Cabrera in the same lineup. That makes very little sense. Damon has looked bad before but the Yankees are better off taking their chances with Damon at the top of the lineup than dropping Gardner or Swisher in the number two hole. It got the Yankees this far; there’s no reason to over think the situation.

It’s almost a lock that Jose Molina will catch AJ Burnett again. It’s not the greatest decision in the world and we’ve discussed why here before. If Girardi was open to second guessing the first time, doing a 180 after Burnett’s success (albeit lucky success with his five walks) in game two would really look like a flip-flop. I don’t know if Girardi cares about such criticism, but the results of game two legitimized his decision, at least for him, leaving little room to change.

All this talk about CC Sabathia pitching game four on three days rest is a bit premature. Obviously, the weather can play a huge factor in how this series plays out with a rain-out eliminating any chances of CC pitching three times this series.

CC has pitched on three days rest five times in his career, the first coming in 2001 for the Indians. The next four came in 2008 when the Brewers rode CC’s back all the way to the playoffs, where he finally collapsed in the NLDS game 2 allowing 5 runs and 4 walks in 3.2 innings.

What’s interesting is looking at those three regular season games for the Brewers:

You can’t put a lot of emphasis on one game, but the worst of the three came on CC’s first start on three days rest against an anemic Cincinnati Reds offense. After that, CC found his stride until falling apart in the NLCS.

BrooksBaseball.net has all of the PitchFX data from these starts so I thought it would be interesting to take a look, starting with his last start on four days rest:

Release Point 9/16/08

Results:

Release point 9/20/08

Results:

Release point 9/24/08

Results:

Release point 9/28/08

Results:

Release point 10/2/08

Results:

Lots of info here to digest. Probably too much but what the heck…

Interesting that CC completely dropped his curveball during his third start on short rest.

There certainly is no decline in fastball velocity, at least nothing exaggerated. What we do see is a change in movement on the fastball, which is more consistent vertically than horizontally. He did lose some command of his fastball as the starts wore on, rebounding a bit (maybe too much) in his NLCS start on 10/2/08.

In CC’s first start on three days rest (9/20), his release point went up a little bit higher. As a result, even though he was throwing a decent amount of strikes, he only struck out three batters. This was the Reds, mind you, who were about league average as far as batter’s strike outs. CC’s next two starts brought his release point lower and lower still and the results were very good.

Finally, after throwing 122 pitches on three days rest in the last regular season game, CC’s release point raised up again and he was beat up by the Phillies in the NLCS. The four balls way off the chart are the result of an intentional base on balls.

It’s interesting to look across these starts and see if there are any hints to Sabathia wearing down. If anything, it looks as though he settles into the rest after the first start. It’s also worth noting, however, that two of these starts came against the Reds and the Pirates, along with the usual National League offense caveats.

Could CC handle a start on short rest? I’m inclined to think he could, although only three strikeouts against the Reds that first game scare me a bit. His pitch/strikes ratio was pretty good but his release point suggests he was a little tired, which is reasonable.

My big concern with CC is what the effect would be the following start. On three days rest in the above example, he bounced back nicely. Can we expect the same? Who knows.

The argument by most will be that he’s the big money pitcher and he needs to step up. That’s a nice way of looking at it but is it fair to expect someone to change their workload all of a sudden? Is that simplifying Girardi’s decision by just laying it on CC, as if his role is to play Superman because Joba floundered in the second half?

A lot of the decision will be based on the weather and where the Yankees are in the series. If they find themselves in a 2-1 series, whether in their favor or not, it may be worth taking the risk. One has to figure that CC on three days rest would be more effective than Chad Gaudin, who has not pitched in a game since October 3rd.

Some thoughts after surviving through game two:

• Wow.
• I don’t care what Joe Girardi says.  Gardner made a huge mistake in the 10th when he was doubled off third on Damon’s line drive.  With one out, Gardner could have trotted home on any ball that got through the infield.  There was no reason for Gardner to be that far off the bag and then advancing to home on a ball that had not touched the ground.  It was a stupid mistake, regardless of Girardi’s excuse that it was a “tough read.”
• Pulling Joba to bring in Coke to face Kubel in the seventh inning was micromanaging by Girardi at it’s best.  He got the out, which was important, but there was only a runner at first with two outs.  Considering it was a tie game at that point, Girardi’s willingness to run through pitchers so easily was a bit reckless and almost backfired when he was stuck with Damaso Marte to start the 11th.
• Ditto only using Alfredo Aceves for one inning.  Aceves averaged over two innings over his last 16 appearances covering August and September.  Aceves was decent but worked through a jam.  And it doesn’t take a genius to want Aceves for a second inning than Marte at all.
• Burnett was typical Burnett.  Lots of walks, lots of Ks, but this time, only one run.  It was a good performance by Burnett, even if his control did seem to wander after the fourth inning.
• Some good outfield play by Nick Swisher, especially catching Gomez off second and preventing a run from scoring.  Swisher also made a nice diving catch to end the 10th.  He didn’t do much at the plate but he was solid in the field.
• It may be some time before you hear anyone compare Joe Nathan to Mariano Rivera again.  Nathan has been one of the best closers of the last six years or so, possibly even better than Rivera.  But Nathan proved he doesn’t have Rivera’s stomach and it cost him.  His throwing error on a pick-off  attempt of Brett Gardner at second base was the final nail in Nathan’s terrible evening.  It will be interesting to see if he’s needed in Minnesota how he responds.
• Teixeira hasn’t looked great at the plate the last few games of the season and game one of the ALDS, but he came through when it counted.  First, it was the single in the ninth that led to ARod’s game tying two run homer.  Then, of course, his walkoff homer in the 11th.  For a guy who was struggling, Tex righted the ship awful quick.
• The unsung hero of the game is David Robertson, who came in to the top of the 11th with runners on first and second with no outs.  After giving up a single to load the bases, Robertson shut down the Twins on a liner to Tex, a grounder to Tex which got the force at home, and a fly out to center.  It was a brave performance by a young kid who didn’t pitch much in the month of September and will certainly put him in a much better light with Joe Girardi.
• The officiating in this game, much like the Red Sox – Angels series, has been dreadful.  Home plate umpire Chuck Meriwether was all over the strike zone, spending a few innings giving the Twins pitches that were way out of the zone.  Then, third base umpire Jim Joyce completely botched a Joe Mauer  to left that tipped off Melky Cabrera’s glove, fell into fair territory, and bounced into the stands.  Joyce called the ball foul despite being thirty feet away and looking directly down the line.  It changed the scope of the entire innings.  Mauer eventually singled but obviously being in scoring position would have benefited the Twins greatly.
• Alex Rodriguez.  That’s all I have to say, really.

When the Yankees take the field tonight against the Twins for game two of the American League Division Series, a backup catcher will be behind the plate.

Jose Molina was tagged the game two catcher even before the Yankees 7-2 win over the Twins in game one of the ALDS, ending season long speculation about starter Jorge Posada’s status with AJ Burnett.

Everyone has said the right thing: this isn’t about individuals, it’s about the team.  If you have watched Jorge Posada play for the last 12 years, you know that the mind and heart are not in sync.

Posada was obviously annoyed at the news, saying “You know what? I just hope we win that game.  That’s all I’ve got to say.”

He’s since lightened his stance.  “I’m not jumping with joy here, but I accept it.  A.J. and Jose are going well. I haven’t caught A.J. in a while.”

The bigger question has been whether this is the right move by Girardi.

It’s not an easy question to answer because there are a few variables here, most notably the inconsistency of AJ Burnett.  Burnett is a notoriously streaky pitcher, able to rattle off periods of dominance and then completely fall off the cliff for weeks at a time.  It’s almost entirely due to Burnett’s control, which can fluctuate wildly not only from start to start but within an inning as well.

Before we try and dissect what’s happening specifically with Burnett, let’s get a look at Posada and Molina’s overall performance over the last four years:

Obviously these are not very good trends for Posada.  2008 is a bit of a wash for Jorge as he spent the few innings he played that year with a bad shoulder injury.  Still, the steadily rising catcher’s ERA and runs per game ERA are not encouraging.

Molina, on the other hand, seems to be improving with age.  2008 was a particularly rough season for Molina as he started 100 games for the first time in his career, his previous high being 78 in 2006 for the Angels.  Molina has performed well behind the plate when it comes to receiving and has obviously posted better numbers than Posada.

So let’s assume that Molina is a bit better than Posada when it comes to calling games.  Let’s get a look at their performances with Burnett:

Obviously, Posada has fared the worst of the three catchers Burnett has thrown to this season.  Cervelli seems to have been very good with Burnett and is probably equal the bat to Molina at this stage, but he’s probably a bit too inexperienced to start a postseason game considering he began the 2009 season in AA.  What we saw in Molina’s and Posada’s catcher’s ERAs over the last four seasons seems to play out here as well.

Has that translated to AJ Burnett?

Let’s take a look at one of Burnett’s better streaks from this past summer and the catchers that caught him:

Over the course of six starts with Jorge Posada catching, Burnett threw 39.2 innings, allowing 8 earned runs for a 1.80 ERA.  His walk rate per nine innings was a little above his season average (4.5 versus 4.2) and his strikeouts per nine innings were a little lower than his season average (7.3 versus 8.5).  Those variances are not insignificant, but neither is the 3 home runs given up over that span, which is a pretty small number.

This again raises the question: how do we judge the effectiveness during this eight game span in which Posada caught six of those games?  Did Burnett pitch well in spite of Jorge Posada catching him?

It’s difficult to wrap my head around exactly why Burnett could have gone on such a good streak with Posada catching and yet, the public consensus is that he can’t throw to him.  Not appearing on this chart is the 7.2 shutout innings Burnett threw against the Red Sox August 7th with, yes, Jorge Posada behind the plate.  By most accounts, Jorge and Burnett had a pretty good summer together that was spoiled by a few bad starts in late August and early September.

And about those bad starts with Posada…  Take a look at Burnett’s two starts against Baltimore in September:

The line for Posada is a little bit worse than Molina’s because of the hits and 1.2 innings less, but neither catcher was very helpful against Baltimore.

The verdict?  It seems that pulling Posada from Burnett for the last month of the season was a rash decision on Girardi’s part, assuming  no clubhouse issues that we are not aware of.  Burnett was probably working through another of his rough patches and the decision was made to pull Posada away, giving Molina a chance to catch Burnett during a good phase.  A backup catcher needs to start at some point and most teams will assign the backup to the pitcher that is most comfortable with him.  That may be the case here.

Still, Girardi may have done the Yankees and Posada a disservice by not getting Posada a few starts behind the plate for the Yankees number two starter, a situation that significantly weakens their lineup during the playoffs when Burnett starts.  It’s probably too late to right that wrong now.

It was a good start for the Yankees Wednesday night, riding 6.2 innings from CC Sabathia on their way to a 7-2 victory over the Twins.

It sounds cliche and unnecessary, but every game truly does count in a short series, especially a best of five.  If we learned anything from the Twins Tuesday night victory over the Tigers, it’s that the Homerdome can still be a rockin’ place to play.  With the baggy walls ready to gasp their last breath, you can be sure that winning in Minnesota will be a tough task.

All the more reason to focus on game 2, when the Twins will throw Nick Blackburn against AJ Burnett for the Yankees.

Blackburn has been a solid pitcher for the Twins.  Amazingly, he’s posted back to back 11-11 seasons with an ERA just over 4.00 both years.  You can’t put too much on wins as a statistic for a pitcher since so much of it is dependent on run support, but pitching in the typically weal AL Central would hopefully yield slightly better results for the 27 year old right-hander.

Blackburn doesn’t have a tremendous history against Yankee hitters.  Here’s how they’ve fared against him so far:

A couple of things of note here:

• Eight strikeouts over eighty-six plate appearances is not very good.  One of the better indicators of a pitchers effectiveness is their strikeout to walk ratio and home runs allowed.  Blackburn has actually walked more Yankee hitters than he’s struck out, which isn’t an encouraging sign for the Twins.
• Four home runs in eighty-six plate appearances should be encouraging, though.  Naturally, Blackburn has had the most trouble with the top of the order.  The younger guys like Melky and Cano have barely seen him but have not fared well in their few at-bats.

Another thing to look at or Blackburn are his career splits over a season:

It doesn’t appear that Blackburn gets any stronger toward the end of the season.  Interestingly, his second best SO/BB ratio of the year comes when his opponents are hitting best off of him, mostly due to his high home run totals in September and October.  His other numbers are basically on par with the rest of his year.

For our last trick, let’s take a quick look at how the Yankees break down against right-handers and left-handers:

I’ve left the Yankees performance against left-handers in their for a little bit of context.

Pretty darn good numbers for the Yanks.  The additions of Nick Swisher and Mark Teixeira, both switch hitters, and Hideki Matsui’s dominance over left-handers this season has actually made the Yankees better against lefties than righties, albeit a marginal difference.  Still, making up that gap from 2008 (.734 OPS against lefties, .784 OPS against righties) has certainly helped.

What’s good for the Yankees here is their SO/BB ratio against right-handers, which is about 1.50.  Blackburn’s career ratio is 2.46 and against the Yankees is actually less than 1.00.  One can bet the Yankees will try and work the count as usual against Blackburn because they don’t seem to afraid of his stuff.

Let’s look at what AJ Burnett has done against the Twins:

Again, the caveat of small samples sizes.

Clearly, Burnett has fared better against the Twins than Blackburn has against the Yanks.  Two home runs, four doubles and one triple in 145 plate appearances is outstanding and shows up in his .331 slugging percentage against.  Naturally, Joe Mauer has hit well against Burnett because Joe Mauer hits well against just about everybody.  Burnett’s SO/BB ratio is right around his career mark of 2.22.

Looking at Burnett’s season splits can be an exercise in frustration:

Nobody pitches consistently at the same level over the course of a season.  It’s nearly impossible.  There’s ups and downs like everything else in life.

What’s frustrating about Burnett is his walk totals.  Even at his most effective (June and July), Burnett was still walking 32 batters in 234 plate appearances.

At times, his numbers just don’t seem to match up right:  His best SO/BB ratio (Sept/Oct 2.47) yielded his highest batting average against.  His worst SO/BB ratio (July’s 1.31) yielded his best OPS against.

All of Burnett’s numbers are up this season: his home runs per nine innings (HR/9), BB/9, and hits/9 are all higher than his career average (and undoubtedly raised his career average in the process).  At the time of his signing, no one expected him to be an ace, but the hope was that he would match the sub-4.00 ERA he had posted in two of the previous three seasons in Toronto.

He hasn’t.  It’s hard to call Burnett a disappointment if you looked objectively at his numbers, but he hasn’t lived up to the hopes.  A decent run in October could help alleviate those thoughts.

Finally, let’s look at the Twins splits against right-handers:

Again, lefty splits added for context.

The Yankees have a 69 point edge in OPS against righties over the Twins.  Not a huge amount but significant.  The Twins slugging percentage is pretty low, while their OBP is a decent .345.  With a little bit of patience, they should be able to get on base against Burnett but getting the big hit might be difficult if Burnett is spotting his pitches.

The Twins as well have fared a bit better against lefties despite having lost to Sabathia Wednesday night.  Andy Pettitte will go in game three at the Metrodome on Sunday, which will surely be a challenge.

Given the Twins history against Burnett and their low power numbers versus right-handers compared to the Yankees, you have to like the Yankees chances in game two.  The Twins best hope is to keep the game close through the middle innings and hope their bullpen can keep it close.  If Blackburn isn’t fooling the Yankees hitters the second time through the order, they’ll start chipping away and getting guys on base.

At that point, it’s all up to AJ Burnett.

Random thoughts after watching the Yankees win behind CC Sabathia, two years after losing to him and the Indians in the 2007 ALDS:

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Join us again Friday night as we live blog and chat during game 2 of the ALDS between the Yankees and the Twins. You can chat with us here or at The Bronx View homepage.