The Bronx View

It’s the day after the Yankees traded for Javier Vazquez and the fans are split.  I’ve heard and read a lot of different opinions over the last two days about this trade and thought it was worth addressing a few of them.

1. Melky Cabrera. A lot of people are treating Melky Cabrera like the centerpiece of this trade.  Not so.  In fact, Melky will most likely be a fourth outfielder for the Braves.  Not many fourth outfielders are the centerpiece of trades for a pitcher who received Cy Young votes.

I get that people are sad to see Melky go.  He came up with the organization, giving some the feeling that they’ve watched him grow up.

What he has grown to, though, is an average ballplayer at best.  Remember, the Yankees went into 2009 with Melky on the bench and Brett Gardner starting in centerfield.  Gardner got off to a slow start and Melky showed some life off the bench and the roles were reversed.

Neither player is suited well for left field from on offensive point of view.  Gardner plays the superior defense which meant he was probably going to get more playing time (that and his higher OBP).

In short, the Yankees didn’t look at Melky as being an everyday player.  Being arbitration eligible this season meant he would be making more than they thought he was worth while Gardner is still under salary control.  As we’ll discuss in a moment, get used to this type of thinking from Brian Cashman.

2. “Vazquez stunk in 2004.“  He stunk the second half.  He was an All Star the first half until shoulder problems wore him down, possibly the result of a heavy workload in Montreal.

We all remember the collapse in the 2004 ALCS which seemed to be finalized on Johnny Damon’s grand slam off of Javier Vazquez.  In some ways, fans seem to be pinning the entire collapse directly on Vazquez which isn’t really fair.  He’s been a good to great pitcher since then and the Yankees didn”t acquire him to be an ace.  He’s a fourth starter with the potential to put up great numbers.  If he pitches like a fourth starter and gives the Yankees 200 innings, mission accomplished.

That’s the problem with how people are judging this trade.  They hear Vazquez and hear about Cy Young votes and think the Yankees are acquiring him to be C.C. Sabathia part two.  Melky Cabrera, a reliever prospect, and a 19 year old kid who hasn’t hit A ball yet will not get you an ace, not even in this baseball economy.  But Vazquez is a very capable pitcher who figures to be a solid back of the rotation guy.

A lot of people will tell you that Vazquez has no guts because he’s failed in the big game.  Vazquez has started in two postseason games, one for the Yankees while injured and one for the White Sox in 2008.  Not much to go on.  People also told you that C.C. Sabathia couldn’t pitch in big games before coming to the Yankees.  How did that work out?

Fans place a lot of credence in the concept of “guts,” but what does that really mean?  Kenny Rogers used to have no guts.  From ages 31 through 34, Rogers was not a good postseason pitcher.  Yankee fans remember how terrible he was in the 1996 playoffs, which the Yankees somehow won out despite Rogers giving up five runs early in game four of the World Series.  At age 41, Rogers lead the Tigers to the World Series with a stellar postseason.

What happened in those seven years that gave Rogers “guts?”  Was he now and even more grizzled veteran that wasn’t afraid of the postseason?  Maybe he was just pitching well at the time.

We watch players go through streaks all year.  Look at Mark Teixeira this season.  At points, you couldn’t get him out.  At other points, he couldn’t hit a lick.  Was it pressure?  Was it guts?  Or was it just how things even out?

.300 hitters don’t hit exactly .300 from April 1st to October 31st.  Their average goes up and down just like the rest of us.  We all have our good weeks and bad weeks.  Sometimes, your good week falls at the right time.  Sometimes it doesn’t.

It’s difficult to think that a player could make it all the way to the major leagues and not be able to handle pressure.  The amount of pressure just to get yourself to the majors must be intense.  Every day in the minor leagues, you’re playing to show what you could be in the future with every day having an influence on whether you will continue in the league.  That’s pressure.

If the Yankees make the postseason with Javier Vazquez next season, there is every reason to believe Javy will perform at the same level he has all season.  Hopefully that level will prove to be pretty good.

3. Cashman is changing the rules. We saw this start when Cash refused to give in for Johan Santana.  Cashman held onto his chips, waited for Sabathia, and the Yankees won a World Series.  The Yankees could easily afford Matt Holliday for left field, but he’s not the guy they want.  The Yankees think the 2010 free agent class has better long term options.

Options are what Brian Cashman is all about right now.  There are a few reasons why the Yankees decided to trade for a starting pitcher rather than go after John Lackey, Randy Wolf, or a gamble like Ben Sheets: they didn’t like the pitchers for the money.  John Lackey is a nice pitcher but the Red Sox probably overpaid him in years and in dollars.  They had to because they needed another quality starter.

The Yankees won 103 games last year with a rotation that was unchanged before they acquired Javier Vazquez.  Any adjustments to that rotation would have to fill certain needs, specifically a strike out pitcher to minimize reliance on the defense and throw 200+ innings to help spell the overworked rotation from 2009.  Vazquez fits both those descriptions.

If Cashman thought he could get that from a free agent pitcher, he would have gone that direction.  Cashman is treating free agency differently these days.  Despite having signed Sabathia and Teixeira to long term contracts, Cashman has been steadily avoiding signing older veterans to longer term deals.

A few seasons ago, Johnny Damon might have gotten three years from the Yankees coming off his 2009 season.  Not this year.  Cashman is avoiding the collection of “old farts” on this team in favor of flexibility, signing older veterans to one year deal to fill holes in hopes of improving those positions later in the season or the following winter.  In the case of Sabathia and Teixeira, both players were still young and in their prime and filled the Yankees exact needs.  Teixeira also came with a good defensive reputation, a characteristic Cashman is giving more and more attention.

The Yankees would have settled for Johnny Damon for two years at $7 million per season.  That’s the money they had ear-marked for a designated hitter and, at this stage, that’s all Damon really is.  When Nick Johnson materialized at a cheaper cost and some defensive flexibility at first base, Damon was no longer needed.

Cold-hearted?  Maybe.  But definitely realistic.  There is no glory to be found in over-paying players, not even in the Yankees budget.  Cashman has been treading water, waiting for the contracts of Hideki Matsui, Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Jason Giambi to come off the books.  Now that he is finally clear of those contracts, he’s able to shape the team based on the type of player he wants rather than the best player available.  Sometimes that will mean leaving Brett Gardner or a cheap one year replacement in left field until a Carl Crawford type becomes available.  Sometimes it will also mean cutting loose a guy like Melky Cabrera who’s salary will start to outweigh his value on the field.

There will be exceptions.  I’ll bet Cashman is cursing the four year deal he gave Jorge Posada before the 2008 season.  No one doubts that Jorge can hit, but his catching days are dwindling.  Guys like Posada, Mariano Rivera, and soon Derek Jeter are going to get overpaid because of their service time to the organization and what they mean to the team.  I don’t buy into the second half of that statement as much as most do, but it goes without saying that seeing Posada, Rivera, or Jeter in another uniform would be a bad day for the Yankees.

Cashman is running the Yankees like a business.  If it were your money, you’d be kissing his feet.  In Cash You Should Trust.

Ian: When the Red Sox improved their rotation last week, acquiring the services of arguably the best starting pitcher on the free agent market in John Lackey, Yankee fans fretted.  Suddenly the Sox boasted a rotation brimming with three number-one starter types in Jon Lester, Josh Beckett, and Lackey.  They had solid depth as well, with a presumably healthy Daisuke Matsuzaka, steadily improving Clay Buchholz, and the ageless Tim Wakefield.  Beyond those six are young guys like Junichi Tazawa, Michael Bowden, and the rapidly ascending Casey Kelly.

Naturally, we all waited for the Yankees to fire a return salvo.  Tuesday morning, they did just that in trading Melky Cabrera, Mike Dunn, and highly-regarded prospect Arodys Vizcaino to Atlanta for Javier Vazquez and Boone Logan.

Yankee fans still have a bad taste in their mouth when it comes to Vazquez.  Acquired before the 2004 season from the Expos for Nick Johnson, Juan Rivera, and Randy Choate, Yankees’ GM Brian Cashman expected that the Yankees had bolstered their rotation for the present and the future.  Just 27 years old, Vazquez had a world of promise, coming off a 2003 season in which he posted a 3.24 ERA and struck out 241 batters in 230.1 IP.  A young, durable power pitcher was exactly what the Yankees rotation needed.  Javy started strong, posting a  3.56 ERA and a 2.97 K/BB ratio in the first half en route to his first and only All Star appearance.

Then the bottom fell out.  In the second half, Vazquez put up a 6.92 ERA, his walk to strikeout ratio plummeting to 1.96.  His strikeouts per 9 IP fell from 7.2 to 6.2.  By season’s end, Joe Torre had all but lost faith in Javy, giving him just one postseason start in which he was shelled by the Twins.  Things didn’t go much better in 2 ALCS relief appearances against the Red Sox, culminating in the first-pitch grand slam he gave up to Johnny Damon in Game 7, a blow that essentially put the final nail in the Yankees’ coffin.

Vazquez was traded in the offseason for the rotting corpse of Randy Johnson and struggled to deliver on his initial promise despite retaining his strikeout stuff.  Javy is and always has been a very strange pitcher, with the stuff and peripherals of a number one starter, but only the fleeting season or two in which he’s delivered the numbers to back it up.  He has a career K/9 ratio of 8.1 while walking just 2.3 batters per 9 – a terrific 3.4 K/BB ratio.  He’s one of only two pitchers to rack up 2000 strikeouts this decade (Randy Johnson is the other).  He’s always been incredibly durable.

Yet his career is pock-marked with ERAs that just don’t fit the profile of a true number one.  From 2004-2006, he was a below average pitcher, putting up an ERA+ of 97 (100 is average) despite a healthy K/9 rate of 7.7 and K/BB rate of 3.25.  He has a career 3.83 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching; learn how it’s calculated here), but a career ERA of 4.19.  Vazquez does give up a ton of HRs – 1.2 per 9IP career – and that’s something to worry about as he moves to New Yankee Stadium.

Last season in Atlanta, Vazquez enjoyed an improbable return to form, with an ERA of 2.87 and 238 K in 219.1 IP.  By ERA+, it was the best season of his career (143).  Hitters had a batting average on balls in play (BABIP) of .297, below his career mark of .309 but not exceptionally so.  And while he was toiling in the NL for the first time since 2005, 33 of his 219 IP came against the Phillies – the most IP he had against any opponent. In those 33 IP, he posted a 3.00 ERA and nearly a strikeout per inning.  Against the top 3 offenses in the NL last season, Vazquez put up a 2.83 ERA in 51 IP, recording 52 Ks.  He was not merely a product of pitching in the weaker league.

So who is Javy Vazquez?  Is he the guy we saw in the first half of 2004?  The second half of 2004?  The dominant 2009 version?  The answer is probably something in between.  Let’s base our expectations not on one or two seasons, but on the whole body of work.  His yearly averages are a 4.19 ERA over 219 IP.  Would you take that from your #3 or #4 starter in the AL East?  Absolutely.  Expectations will always be high for Javy because he has the pure stuff and command of an ace.  This go round in New York, he doesn’t have to be one.  Maybe that’s for the best.  He’s signed for one more year at $11.5 million, then is likely to walk away and let the Yankees collect some high draft picks based on his Type-A status.  For 2010, he gives the Yankees a pretty fearsome foursome that can at least compete with Boston’s.

As for what the Yankees gave up – we all know about Melky Cabrera.  An incredibly streaky hitter prone to extreme slumps, Cabrera offers little upside over what we’ve already seen.  He is what he is – an average defensive CF with a strong but intermittently accurate arm and a slightly below average bat.  He needs to stay in CF to stick as a regular since offensively, he profiles poorly as a corner outfielder.  A move to the NL could boost his numbers, but not significantly enough to make him a star or even an above-average regular.  With Jason Heyward, arguably the best prospect in baseball, almost ready to take over in CF for the Braves, Melky’s time as a starter may be brief.  We should take some time to reflect on the energy and enthusiasm Melky brought to the Yankees though – as replaceable as he may be as a player, he had a strong personality and it was fun to watch him play.  He had several big hits for the Yankees this past season and seemed genuinely well-liked by his teammates.  He deserves thanks for his contribution to a World Championship team.  He earned his ring.

Mike Dunn projected to be one of two left-handed setup men for the Yankees this coming season, and reportedly was a sticking point in the Granderson trade negotiations – Cashman seemingly felt more comfortable parting with Phil Coke.  As a general rule, I don’t get too upset over relievers being dealt; unless they profile as a closer, they pretty much grow on trees.  Still, Dunn has mid-90’s velocity, rare for a lefty, and could have been a nice matchup guy in NY.  His control was always going to be an issue, but I imagine he’ll have good success against left-handed hitters in the majors.

It’s the loss of Arodys Vizcaino that hurts.  Just 19, Arodys has dominated the low minors in his two years as a pro, with more than a strikeout per inning and an ERA under 2.  Baseball America rated him as the Yankees #3 prospect and listed him as having the best curveball in the entire minor league system.  Baseball Prospectus had him ranked as the Yankees’ #2 prospect.  Obviously, a 19 year-old with power stuff comes with the usual caveats – TINSTAAPP and all that – but it’s tough to lose a guy with the upside to pitch in the top half of the rotation.  Still, Vizcaino has yet to throw even a single pitch in a full-season league and is at least 3-4 years away from contributing in the Majors if his development continues on a steady path.

Overall, I like this trade for the Yankees.  They walked a tightrope in October with just 3 reliable starters on their roster; Cashman has shown the ability to recognize that even a World Series champion can stand to improve themselves.  The deal leaves some holes in the Yankee roster, but these issues will be sorted out in due time.  I rate this deal a solid B+.

Scott: It’s been awhile since we’ve seen a trade as divisive as this one, at least in YankeeLand.  There’s still a lot of fans left with a bitter taste in their mouths over Javy Vazquez.

I like the trade for one simple reason:  innings.  The Yankees had the opportunity to get someone for the back half of the rotation that could reliably throw 200 innings this year, a major upgrade over the three-headed Mitre/Gaudin/Aceves monster they played with last season.  A strong number four pitcher means less reliance on Sabathia, Burnett, and Pettitte to go deep into games to protect an over-worked bullpen.  As an added bonus, you’re running a guy out there who would give a modest offense a chance to win every fifth day; put the Yankees behind him and Vazquez could have a very good year.

Vazquez probably won’t duplicate his numbers from 2009.  The shift to the AL alone probably ensures that before he even throws a pitch.  But he will be an effective starter who has averaged eight strikeouts per nine innings over his career.

Of course, the flipside of a trade is what you give up.  In the big picture, the Yankees gave up very little.  The addition of Curtis Granderson made Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner an expendable part with neither player profiling very well as a left-fielder.  I’ve argued previously that Melky should be the candidate to go so I’m not exactly broken-hearted to see this deal happen.

Ian profiled Vizcaino and Dunn above and I can’t really add much to the discussion.  Dunn was an expendable part and Vizcaino still has to make the long trek to the big leagues by maturing, improving, and staying healthy.  Those three things are harder to obtain than you think.  Look at Joba Chamberlain as exhibit A, two year ago the next sure thing and now, most fans would trade him.

It’s hard to fault Cashman for giving up the package he did.  None of these three players would have had a major impact on the 2010 Yankees.  Maybe Melky could have put up slightly better numbers but he still would have been below average offensively in left field.

There are two little secrets at the back end of this deal.  The first is that Vazquez could turn into a first round pick and a sandwich pick if the Yankees offer him arbitration after the 2010 season and he walks.  The second is that Boone Logan actually has a fourth option according to Joel Sherman, which means even though he is arbitration eligible, he has to make the team coming out of spring training.  That gives the Yankees a little bit of financial flexibility if they’re not happy with what they see.

This is a great trade for the Yankees and a head-scratcher for the Atlanta Braves.  The Braves must figure they’re not wholly in contention this year and wanted to assemble parts for the future.  Where Melky Cabrera fits into that plan is anyone’s guess.

And for those people crying over spilled Melk, be honest about who Cabrera is as a baseball player.  He is an average hitter at best with a weak OBP who hasn’t been able to put it together at the major league level.  He’s had some fine moments but then so did Luis Sojo.  Melky was going to see even less playing time this season with the addition of Curtis Granderson.  Maybe he’ll get a chance to prove something in Atlanta.  And he was due probably $3 to $3.5 million in arbitration, making the choice to stick with Gardner that much easier.

It remains to be seen whether the Yankees will actually go with Gardner or Jamie Hoffmann in left.  Cashman has been crying poor today, not so different from similar pleads before signing Mark Teixeira last season.  It wouldn’t kill the Yankees to keep left field as it is since the defense would be fantastic.  Another bat and decent defense would probably be better.  As it is, they have little depth for the outfield and could use either a more prolific starter or more depth.

Since we’re grading, I also give this trade a B+.

Looks like the only thing left bringing DH/1B Nick Johnson back to New York is the dotting of the I’s.  The $5.5 million price tag has left many wondering why the accident prone Johnson and not the gimpy-legged Matsui?

Jason over at IIATMS led the charge:

Nick Johnson has the potential to thrive hitting in the #2 spot behind Jeter, ahead of Teixeira and ARod. Sure, he’s not gonna run, but then again, Damon batted #2 in 2009 and stole only 12 bases. Was that because of Damon or because Girardi didn’t want to run himself out of an inning with the horses up behind Damon?

Johnson, assuming he can remain healthy, will be a nice fit for this team.  He doesn’t have to play every game.  Will he quickly adjust to playing only half the game, and after that, only 4-5 times a week instead of 6-7?

Like I said up top: I like Nick. I like what he could bring this team.  I just don’t get why, if Cashman wanted a “pure” DH, he didn’t re-sign the one he had for the last seven years, the consummate professional, the one who is the reigning World Series MVP.

Jason and I tweeted back and forth a bit about this last night and our opinions are actually closer on the subject than they’re about to appear.

There’s a few X factors here that we are not aware of, the biggest being Matsui’s desire to play the outfield at least part time.  The Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim California rather unwisely think that they may be better off if Matsui could play the outfield a few days a week:

Matsui played all 142 of his games last season at designated hitter, and though Scioscia would prefer to rotate his other three outfielders — Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera — through the DH spot and give Matsui an occasional start in left field, he will not force the issue.

“It’s much more important for us to have him in the lineup swinging the bat every day rather than forcing him to play the outfield,” Scioscia said. “That being said, it would make us deeper if he could play the outfield two or three times a week.”

Some sources have said that “logic” was part of the reason Matsui jumped at the Angels offer.  Brian Cashman may have been considering Matsui but, given the fact that Matsui never touched a glove in 2009, it was pretty apparent his only role would be that of designated hitter.

Given the Yankees needs and Matsui’s wants, the Yankees may not have been a match to re-sign Hideki at this stage.

Comparing Matsui and Nick Johnson head to head, we find these numbers:

And their career splits:

The big question mark with both players is health.  The Yankees had to drain Matsui’s knees a few times last year even though he never played the field.  Nick the Stick has been an injury magnet for most of his career, the zenith being a broken leg at the end of the 2006 season that forced him to sit out 2007.

If I were a gambling man, I’d have to bet on the guy who is five years younger when it comes to health risk.  The Yankees have been closer to Matsui than anybody since he entered the majors and know more about the day to day pain and treatment his ailing legs needed.  They obviously have some doubts about whether Matsui could sustain his 2009 performance for another season.

Likewise, Matsui broke 140+ games for only the second time in four years in 2009, most likely due to the fact that he wasn’t playing the field.  The Yankees must hope that the same tactic as applied to Nick Johnson will improve his durability over the course of the season.

Looking at the numbers above, the big discrepancies between the two players lay in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  Nick has always been an on-base machine.  Matsui has put up good OBP numbers while slugging much better than Johnson.

Again, we look at these numbers through the health microscope.  If Matsui does take a sharp decline in 2010, his power will go right along with it.  Johnson is 31 this year and figures to have at least a couple of effective seasons left in him.  Chances are, his OBP will maintain.  His SLG has never been great and could see a boost from the new Yankee Stadium.  If it stays where it is, the Yankees will still be happy to collect his walks.

Of the two players, then, Johnson is probably the lower risk.  The five year age difference alone is a big sticking point, one that could lead Matsui to other health issues besides just his knees.

The question remains: where does Johnson fit on this team?

There has been a lot of talk about Johnson being the #2 hitter behind Jeter.  That’s a possibility.  His OBP certainly makes him a guy you would like hitting in from of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.  That would push newly acquired Curtis Granderson toward the back of the lineup, possibly dropping into the two spot when Johnson isn’t playing.  Chances are, the Yankees aren’t looking at Johnson to play 145 games this year as they want to get more rest for Jorge Posada and others while keeping their bats in the lineup.

The reaction to these moves, picking up Granderson and Johnson, has left some Yankee fans a little befuddled, thinking their team has taken a step backwards.

Well, I think the case can be made that Johnson proves a better risk for this season than Matsui and possibly shows a bit of upside if the new stadium helps his swing.  What about the trade-off of Damon for Granderson?

Another chart, this one Damon and Grandersons last three years:

It’s worth noting that Granderson put up these numbers as a centerfielder with above average UZR numbers over three years while Damon posted average to bad UZR numbers in left field.*

* Damon’s 2007 and 2008 seasons showed positive UZR ratings in left but only covered a combined 119 games over the two seasons.  His first full season in left, 2009, Damon posted a -9.2 UZR and -12.1 UZR/150.

With these two moves, the Yankees have improved their lineup but they’ve also improved their defense, a concept that has been lost in some of the talk.  Last season, the Yankees didn’t feature the greatest outfield with Nick Swisher in right, Melky Cabrera in center, nad Johnny Damon in left.  Melky and Swish are both adequate, but Damon was horrible.  By shifting Melky and Gardner to left and depositing Granderson in center, their defense should benefit greatly which only adds to the upgrade in offense.

Everyone says this is the end of Johnny Damon in New York and that’s probably true.  It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Damon could still return under the right terms.  I don’t understand speculation that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are still possibilities and not Damon.  I find Damon to be a much better risk at two years around $20 million than four years for Bay or possibly six for Holliday.  Holliday is a very good player with very good defense, but his stats while playing at Coors Field were greatly inflated.

Here’s Holliday’s home and road splits during his tenure in Colorado:

Holliday’s road numbers steadily improved towards the end of his stay in Colorado, but look at that BAbip!  That type of consistency goes a bit beyond luck and seems to indicate that Holliday hits the ball hard. Can that type of high BAbip continue?  It has to this point but if it dropped anywhere close to .300, his numbers would take a steep hit.  I don’t know that Holliday warrants the supposed six years he’s hoping to get.

Could the Yankees benefit from Matt Holliday?  Of course they could.  But right now, the Yankees have built a lineup that is probably better than last year’s while improving their outfield defense.  That team scored 915 runs, took the AL East by 8 games and won the World Series.  Adding Holliday is probably not necessary and a bit greedy.

The Boston Herald reports on the Red Sox two-year pact with Mike Cameron, while mentioning that Yanks have apparently been in touch with Jason Bay:

The Red Sox last night agreed to terms with Cameron on a two-year deal, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. Multiple reports pegged the deal at roughly $15.5 million…

…Bay expects to make a final decision in the next couple of days, with the Mets, Angels and Mariners the front-runners for his services. However, lurking in the weeds are Yankees, who have reached out to Bay’s representatives to express their interest, the source said.
The Yankees are not believed to have made an offer, and it was unclear last night exactly how strong their interest is, but it goes without saying that in matters of free agency, they never can be discounted.

First, on the Cameron signing – it’s a nice move.  But the Red Sox have yet to (publicly) commit to playing Cameron in center field, and the general belief is that he’ll slide over to left field so Jacoby Ellsbury can remain in center.  What’s the difference between Cameron in center and Cameron in left?  Night and day.

In the past two seasons, Cameron has posted UZR numbers of 11.3 and 10 for the Brewers.  UZR came into fashion in 2002, and since then, Cameron has consistently been among the Major League leaders in that category, including 3rd in the Majors last year – barely behind BJ Upton, but well behind Franklin Gutierrez, who appears to be a once-in-a-generation defensive outfielder.  Compare this to Tacoby Bellsbury, whose UZR last year was a Major League-worst -18.6, and it would be utterly mind-boggling to see Cameron switch positions to accommodate such a horrific fielder.  If the Sox decision makers are smart – and they are – they’ll take a look at the numbers and do the right thing.  But should they somehow fail to do so, and decide to stick with the kid in center, they would severely damage Cameron’s value to the team.

Cameron has posted an OBP over .360 once – that was in 2000 – and has never slugged over .500 despite averaging 23 HR per season.  While he posts terrific offensive slash lines for a CF, particularly one with his defensive gifts (career .250/.340/.448), he doesn’t hit like a corner outfielder.  If the Sox were chasing offense, there were much better players to be had on the FA market or available through trade.

On to the Bay/Yankees rumors – I don’t buy it.  The Yankees are routinely tied to any and all free agents because of their financial clout, but to me, Bay isn’t a great buy for the Yankees because he doesn’t fit Cashman’s recent MO. He isn’t particularly young (31) and he isn’t particularly athletic or solid defensively.  I think Cashman is instead taking the chance that Carl Crawford will become a free agent following the 2010 season.  It’s the same gamble he took in not trading for Johan Santana and instead waiting for CC Sabathia.  The Yanks overwhelmed CC with cash last offseason and he became the team’s true ace en route to a World Championship.  A similar scenario could unfold next offseason with Crawford, who would become, along with Cano, Granderson, Teixeira, and Sabathia, a long-term franchise cornerstone with the speed, defense, youth, and athleticism the Yankees crave.   I don’t see Cashman wanting to commit to the (likely) 5 years it would take to land Jason Bay, particularly since he’s viewed as a defensive liability – the type of player the Yankees already have in spades.

Another possibility is that the Yankees view Jesus Montero as a left fielder in the long term.  Montero isn’t too far away from being ML-ready.  Maybe the Yankees are willing to absorb a year of Melky Cabrera in left field if they think Montero will be ready to take over in a year.  Granted, Jesus has never played anywhere but C, and the Yankees are loathe to move him off the position despite the fact that most scouts agree he can’t play it well.  But the fact remains that the Yankees have some future options in left field, and signing an older, big money FA to fill the spot for 5 years seems opposed to the type of team that Cashman hopes to build in the Bronx.

Now that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee, Brett Gardner’s name is popping up.  ESPN’s Trade Rumors:

The Curtis Granderson deal seems to have made Brett Gardner a more valuable commodity.

Gardner became expendable in New York once Granderson was acquired in a three-team deal, and the latest team to make an inquiry is the Chicago White Sox. The Sun-Times says today that White Sox GM Ken Williams views Gardner as a reasonably-priced option in center field.

Competition for Gardner could come from another team in the AL Central. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark tweeted Wednesday night that the Kansas City Royals have inquired about Gardner.

The Royals are in the market for a center fielder since free agent Coco Crisp is expected to sign elsewhere.

Sure, Gardner is a reasonably priced option for the White Sox and Kansas City.  His service time is low which makes him cheap and under team for control (I believe) for another two years.

As a matter of fact, he’s just the type of player that the Yankees could use as a backup outfielder.  Jamie Hoffman, recently acquired via the Nats from the Dodgers in the rule 5 draft will also be vying for that role once he’s completed his subterfuge against Johnny Damon.

It’s nice that teams are looking at Gardner but my question is, if the White Sox think he can start in centerfield, why would the Yankees not want him as backup?  In my mind, Melky Cabrera is the one the Yankees should be shopping.

Cabrera is a year older than Gardner but has never shown the type of plate discipline that Gardner has in the minors.  Gardner is the superior centerfielder and obviously has the better speed of the two, despite Gardner’s inability to actually utilize that speed in the playoffs.

Also, Gardner will be cheaper for longer.  That may sound like a silly argument for the Yankees, but they need cheap young talent just like everyone else.  Consider 2009, where the Yankees ranked 25th out of 30 clubs in percentage of their payroll devoted to their bullpen.  Consider also that of that $22.5 million, $15 million of it was devoted to Mariano Rivera. The Cincinnati Reds, with a $71.5 million payroll, spent $20.8 million on their bullpen, just $1.7 million less than the Yankees, whose payroll was almost three times that of the Reds ($206.8 million versus $71.5 million).

* As a side note, the Yankees also ranked 28th in percentage of salary devoted to pitching even with the big money devoted to CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.  The entire chart as provided by Cot’s Baseball Contracts looks like this:

Clearly, the Yankees have found some benefit to going cheaper in their bullpen, utilizing the arms within their own system, or picking up guys like Brian Bruney off the scrap heap to provide innings when needed.  The rest of the league seems to be picking up on this.  Well, seems to, anyway.

The point is, even with an inflated budget, you have to find the most appropriate places within your roster to apply cheap, young talent.  For the Yankees, that place has been the bullpen and the bench.  The bench will get a bit cheaper this year when Francisco Cervelli likely takes over the backup catcher position from Jose Molina.  It’s possible that Ramiro Pena could be a backup infielder as well depending on what the front office feels they can get out of Pena in 2010 and beyond.

Given the Brett Gardner has proven at least equally valuable as Melky Cabrera, has more time under team control and is a better defensive outfielder, there’s little reason to trade him over Cabrera.  The return for Gardner may be a little better, but we’re talking a negligible difference in return, one that certainly can be outweighed by the usefulness and flexibility of Gardner.

The only major difference between the two players is that Gardner is left-handed while Melky is a switch hitter.  Both hitters hit worse against lefties which elevated neither over the other when considering a platoon partner with Curtis Granderson.

A day after the Brian Bruney shocker, the Yankees made an even bigger deal today (if you can believe it): they acquired CF Curtis Granderson in a three-way trade with the Tigers and Diamondbacks.  The Yankees lose highly-touted CF prospect Austin Jackson and lefty reliever Phil Coke to Detroit, along with SP Ian Kennedy to Arizona.

My gut reaction to this trade at first: disgust.  The plan I had drawn up in my head had the Yankees signing Mike Cameron for a year, giving AJax a bit more time in AAA to cut down on his strikeouts and develop his power (I realize those two things are generally mutually exclusive – perhaps this was a motivating factor for Cashman making Jackson available in the first place).  After sifting through the numbers for a while, however, I’m quite a bit more bullish on this deal.  I’m in the camp that hates to see good, homegrown prospects go, but when you can acquire an impact player at a key defensive position on the right side of 30, sometimes you bite the bullet and make the deal.  Ultimately my only complaint is that it took prospects to fill a hole when cash might have sufficed.

For an impact-type player, Granderson does have his share of blind spots.  He’s never been able to raise his game to even below-average against left-handed pitchers; .210/.270/.344 for his career, and he’s not even trending upwards.  In 2009 he hit just .183/.245/.239 (!), an appalling .484 OPS.  He’s in desperate need of a platoon partner, but pairing his career line against righties (.292/.367/.528) with Melky’s career line against lefties (.255/.325/.355) will give the Yankees plenty of offensive production in 2010 from a position that was a year-long black hole in a championship 2009 season.

While Granderson’s struggles against lefties have been well-documented, he generally has a good defensive reputation from Tigers-watchers.  But the metrics aren’t in total agreement.  He had very, very solid years in center in 2006-2007, posting UZR numbers of 13.7 and 14.2, respectively.  However, 2008 was a complete nosedive – a -8.9 UZR, despite making fewer errors than in 2007.  Present that to anyone who claims fielding percentage is the be-all end-all in defensive evaluation.

Granderson rebounded somewhat in 2009 to post a 1.6 UZR, still far below the sensational numbers he’d put up in his first 2 full seasons. This number placed him 8th out of 18 qualifying center fielders.  For comparison’s sake, UZR thinks Brett Gardner (7.2) is far and away a better defender, while Melky is almost exactly even with Granderson (1.4).  Curtis obviously provides far, far more value with the bat than either of those two, making him an easy upgrade all things considered.  All signs point to Granderson being solidly average to slightly above-average with the glove, but the signs of defensive decline are frustrating for a player of his age and speed.

Granderson’s sensational 2007 looks more and more like an outlier with each passing year.  He finished 10th in MVP voting by putting up a .302/.361/.552 line, with 84 extra-base hits and 26 SB against just 1 CS.  In the two intervening years, Curtis has failed to post an OPS over .858 or a SLG over .494.  Those numbers from a 1B spell trouble; when you consider Granderson plays CF acceptably, it’s hard to nitpick.  In fact, Granderson walked 52 times in 2007, but in the next two seasons walked 71 and 72 times, respectively, a very positive trend for a player who likely slots in as a 2-hole hitter for the Yanks.

He was also victimized in 2009 by a BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) of .275, well below his career average of .321.  In his breakout ‘07 campaign, he hit .360 on balls in play, making some regression completely understandable.  His bad luck led to a .249 BA and .327 OBP in ‘09.  If Granderson’s luck improves in ‘10 and he hits his career average of .272 while maintaining his walk rate, you’re looking at an OBP around .350, which is more than acceptable for a player with his power.  In addition, his line drive percentage of 21% was right in line with his career norms, further indicating bad luck.  He’s a good bet to improve on his 2009 season.

Continuing with the positives, Granderson posted the best AB to HR ratio for any full season in his career, reaching 30 HR for the first time.  He posted his highest fly ball percentage as well – 49.3%, well up from the 40.7% he hit in 2008.  For a player with Granderson’s raw speed, you might consider this a negative trend.  But considering the park he’s moving to as a left-handed hitter, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that he could repeat if not exceed his home run total from 2009.

On a completely intangible positive note, the Yankees got even more likable.   Granderson blogs for ESPN and has done some TV work for the MLB Network, and he always comes across as very charismatic and personable.  So many observers noted the improvement in the Yankees’ team chemistry this season.  Whether or not there’s a cause and effect between that improvement and winning a championship is open for debate – I personally think it had more to do with the Yankees’ hoarding of awesome baseball players – but Granderson should fit nicely into the clubhouse culture and quickly become a fan favorite.

As for the players lost: obviously, trading Jackson hurts the most.  Jackson excelled in the low-minors, had a nice debut in AAA last season, and appeared on track to become the Yankees’ everyday CF in either 2010 or 2011.  He was exactly the type of player many Yankees fans pined for during the interminable (for us) 9 year championship drought – young, cheap, homegrown, fast, athletic, fundamentally solid.  Promoting from within became the antidote to signing old, past their prime, injury prone free agents, a decision-making flaw that hamstrung the team – financially and otherwise – for years.

But I think that Yankee fans, myself included, tend to overrate their prospects, and we’re all somewhat guilty of doing so with AJax.  He displayed very little power, hitting 4 HR in AAA last year and never hitting more than 10 in any minor league season.  Along with those 4 HR came 123 Ks in 557 plate appearances, and if Austin lacked power and the ability to make consistent contact in Scranton, he more than likely wasn’t going to find it in the American League East, at least not any time soon.  The Yankees can’t afford to be ultra-patient with a player like Jackson, who at times was referred to as an athlete learning to play baseball.  Still, Jackson retains a promising mix of speed and above-average defense, and has youth and the upside to develop average power down the road.  I hope he finds success with the Tigers, but something tells me it won’t be in 2010.

As for Phil Coke, let’s face it: championship goodwill aside, he’s a fungible left-handed reliever who is fairly easily replaced on the Yankees roster.  They have Mike Dunn waiting in the wings, and reportedly have their eye on free agent strikeout machine Mike Gonzalez.  Coke burst onto the scene with an impressive September callup in 2008, before making the team out of spring training in ‘09 and keeping his spot all the way through the World Series.  He pitched effectively, as lefties hit just .195/.218/.366 against him.  Still, considering the volatility of reliever performance, he likely won’t be missed.

Ian Kennedy fell out of favor with the Yankees in 2008 when he made the starting rotation, pitched terribly, was demoted, eventually recalled, pitched terribly again, then capped a magical year off by saying dumb things to a group of reporters in Anaheim.  Kennedy threw well in AAA in 2009, before surgery to remove an aneurysm cost him most of the year.  He came all the way back to the majors, appearing in a late season game in relief, then reported to the Arizona Fall League and pitched well enough there to merit a look in 2010.  A pitcher with Kennedy’s raw stuff – or more accurately, lack thereof – was probably never going to thrive in the AL East without having exceptional command, which Kennedy has not shown at the highest level.  I think his minor league success will eventually translate into some good seasons at the back of an NL West rotation, however, so Arizona should have a serviceable guy to throw behind their big 3 of Webb, Haren, and now Edwin Jackson.

For those who might argue that Austin Jackson should have been saved for a deal involving Roy Halladay: dream on.  Vernon Wells has the worst, most unmovable contract in Major League Baseball; short of shifting him to an outfield corner, where his already anemic bat would play even worse, the Blue Jays really had no need for a young CF that is considered nearly Major League ready.  If the Yankees were in the Halladay running yesterday, they still are today.  Jesus Montero would probably have to be the centerpiece of that deal, with Joba and Phil Hughes as the supporting cast.

In summation, the Yankees will open 2010 with their best overall center fielder since Bernie Williams shuffled off this mortal coil around the start of 2003.  Cashman has shown no willingness to stay complacent even after winning a World Championship, an encouraging sign for Yankees fans with dreams of a repeat performance.  While many Yankees homers such as myself may shudder at giving up the team’s second-best prospect in the deal, such is the cost of remaining competitive every year.  If that results in another World Championship, it’s a price I’d gladly pay.

No, this isn’t a rant trying to advocate Edgar Martinez for the Hall of Fame.

The scuttlebutt around the New York Yankees since the end of the season has focused squarely on the futures of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.  It’s interesting, almost comical really, to think that there is any question about whether the Yankees should pay for the continued services of these aging players.  I, myself, was advocating the quick jettison of both of them previous to the 2008 season and, while Damon happily proved me wrong, Matsui suffered knee problems that limited him to 93 games.

The problem with both players is that they’re old by baseball standards.  Both men will be aged 36 for the 2010 season, neither has the legs nor the arm to be effective in the outfield, and both carry the possibility of receiving multi-year offers from other teams.

At least, that’s how it’s been perceived in the past.  Last winter opened many eyes around baseball as players and teams alike tried to navigated the turbulent waters surrounding arbitration.  The Yankees were widely questioned for not offering Bobby Abreu arbitration, which would have given them another first round pick should he sign with another team.  As the market shook out and Abreu’s value plummeted, the Yankees began to look smarter and smarter for not leaving Abreu open to a $15 million arbitration award when the market earned him just a one year contract at $5 million.

It shouldn’t be that shocking, then, that the Yankees have repeated this approach, deciding not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte.  In Matsui’s case, the decision was a no brainer: Matsui is neither a type A or B free agent, leaving the Yankees no compensation should he sign elsewhere.  The better gamble is to risk signing him under agreeable terms than to leave the dollars to a third party.

Andy Pettitte is just Andy Pettitte.  The pattern has been established that Pettitte will deliberate and waffle over whether he wants to play, claim it’s not about the money, complain about the money, then sign for less guaranteed than he did the previous year.  Last winter, it worked out for everyone as Pettitte signed for a guaranteed $5 million after having arm problems down the stretch, but reach almost of his $5 million in incentives, reaching the $10 million price tag he asked for in the first place.

Damon, however, is a type A free agent coming off the best season of his career with a salary of $13 million.  A quick read of the market, even by Scott Boras, could determine that Damon stands little chance of matching $13 million next season and certainly not for multiple seasons.  An arbitration hearing could earn Damon a raise, possibly bringing him to $14 or $15 million which would be well above market value and even above his theoretical value for the 2009 season.

The question that remains is whether the Yankees should sign Matsui and/or Damon or none of the above.  The theory floated out there in September argued that the Yankees couldn’t possibly carry both players again.  Matsui has no ability to t play the outfield anymore and Damon is such a bad outfielder that he probably shouldn’t play the outfield anymore.  Essentially, they cancel each other out as being older, poor fielding players on the cusp of decline, exactly the kind of player you don’t need two of on your roster.

This theory has only been bolstered by another concept: the designated hitter by committee.  As the Yankees start to get a bit older, especially in the case of catcher Jorge Posada and to a lesser degree Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the call has come for more rest.  To keep their bats in the lineup, one of the elders could get a half day off and DH rather than ride the bench.  Since the DH role would be filled mostly by position players, the theory goes, there would be little need for a player like Hideki Matsui.

This is a ridiculously flawed concept to me.  From a sheer strategical standpoint, it makes little sense to have Jorge Posada DH while the backup catcher is behind the plate, unless you carry a third catcher.  That seems like a waste of a roster spot for the small percentage of games that Posada would actually DH, assuming that he will have off days where he doesn’t hit.

From a mathematical standpoint, the amount of needed days off by those players does not amount to a full-time designated hitter.

Alex Rodriguez missed the first 28 games last season and finished the year having played in 124 games.  That means outside of his time on the DL, ARod missed 10 games.  And remember, he missed ten games after having hip surgery that was supposed to require consistent rest throughout the season, rest he rarely took.  Assuming a healthier ARod for 2010, it’s reasonable to think he will play in roughly 145-150 games.

Jorge Posada missed 22 games in May of 2009 with leg problems.  He went on to catch 96 games, which means he may have caught another 16 games had he stayed healthy.  Let’s say Posada would have caught 112 games, leaving 50 to be accounted for.

Derek Jeter played 153 games in 2009.  He played 150 in 2008 and 156 in 2007.  In fact, he’s averaged 151 games a season since becoming a full-time player.  If Derek Jeter is healthy in 2010, I’d be willing to bet he’s going to play at least 150 games again.

Between these three players, we’ve found about 79 games that we can reasonably expect them not to be playing the field and possibly slot into the designated hitter’s role.  That leaves 83 games to account for, just over half a season.

Filling those 83 games at DH requires one of two solutions: drop a bench player into the DH slot or put that bench player in the field and put a position player at DH.  The Yankees bench in 2009, not including Hideki Matsui, had a .305 on-base percentage.  They had a .364 slugging percentage.

Hideki Matsui had a .367 on-base percentage and a .509 slugging percentage.  Despite being a left-hander, Matsui posted great numbers against lefties:

It may seem unreasonable to expect Matsui to hit as well against lefties in 2010 but considering his low BAbip, there is every reason to think he will not suffer a big drop off.  There is the outside possibility he could hit even better.

The difference in offense between Hideki Matsui and the Yankee bench in 2009 is considerable.  If the Yankees do not re-sign Matsui for 2010, where do they pick up that offense?  Where are the Yankees going to find a power hitting backup catcher or infielder that can replicate the type of offense that Matsui has provided?

Obviously, they’re not because any player providing that type of offense at those positions won’t be riding the pines while making backup wages.

Given the caliber of the Yankees lineup, residing in the American League where pinch hitting has less need, the Yankees shouldn’t be wasting a position devoted solely to hitting on backup players.  By not re-signing Matsui, the Yankees would be conceding at least one spot in their lineup each game, whether it be to rest ARod and play a Jerry Hairston, Jr. type or their everyday lineup which likely wouldn’t have a league average or above bat at designated hitter.

These leads to the inevitable question about who should be re-signed, Matsui or Damon.  In my mind, I think there is room for both given short term contracts.  I wouldn’t want to sign either player for more than two years, preferably a year with an option if possible.  The Yankees could live with Damon’s defense in left for another season rather than go out and overpay for a guy like Matt Holliday.  Holliday is good, but I think he will be overpaid with too many years for a guy turning 30.  The Yankees have Austin Jackson possibly coming up by 2011, which could solidify centerfield and possibly move Melky to right.  I don’t think Melky is the long-term option there, but it would give the Yankees another season to pinpoint how they can buildup their outfield.

Committing short term to two players who should perform about their career average for the next season makes sense given that there are few outfielders available that are both good at the plate and with the glove.