A day after the Brian Bruney shocker, the Yankees made an even bigger deal today (if you can believe it): they acquired CF Curtis Granderson in a three-way trade with the Tigers and Diamondbacks. The Yankees lose highly-touted CF prospect Austin Jackson and lefty reliever Phil Coke to Detroit, along with SP Ian Kennedy to Arizona.
My gut reaction to this trade at first: disgust. The plan I had drawn up in my head had the Yankees signing Mike Cameron for a year, giving AJax a bit more time in AAA to cut down on his strikeouts and develop his power (I realize those two things are generally mutually exclusive – perhaps this was a motivating factor for Cashman making Jackson available in the first place). After sifting through the numbers for a while, however, I’m quite a bit more bullish on this deal. I’m in the camp that hates to see good, homegrown prospects go, but when you can acquire an impact player at a key defensive position on the right side of 30, sometimes you bite the bullet and make the deal. Ultimately my only complaint is that it took prospects to fill a hole when cash might have sufficed.
For an impact-type player, Granderson does have his share of blind spots. He’s never been able to raise his game to even below-average against left-handed pitchers; .210/.270/.344 for his career, and he’s not even trending upwards. In 2009 he hit just .183/.245/.239 (!), an appalling .484 OPS. He’s in desperate need of a platoon partner, but pairing his career line against righties (.292/.367/.528) with Melky’s career line against lefties (.255/.325/.355) will give the Yankees plenty of offensive production in 2010 from a position that was a year-long black hole in a championship 2009 season.
While Granderson’s struggles against lefties have been well-documented, he generally has a good defensive reputation from Tigers-watchers. But the metrics aren’t in total agreement. He had very, very solid years in center in 2006-2007, posting UZR numbers of 13.7 and 14.2, respectively. However, 2008 was a complete nosedive – a -8.9 UZR, despite making fewer errors than in 2007. Present that to anyone who claims fielding percentage is the be-all end-all in defensive evaluation.
Granderson rebounded somewhat in 2009 to post a 1.6 UZR, still far below the sensational numbers he’d put up in his first 2 full seasons. This number placed him 8th out of 18 qualifying center fielders. For comparison’s sake, UZR thinks Brett Gardner (7.2) is far and away a better defender, while Melky is almost exactly even with Granderson (1.4). Curtis obviously provides far, far more value with the bat than either of those two, making him an easy upgrade all things considered. All signs point to Granderson being solidly average to slightly above-average with the glove, but the signs of defensive decline are frustrating for a player of his age and speed.
Granderson’s sensational 2007 looks more and more like an outlier with each passing year. He finished 10th in MVP voting by putting up a .302/.361/.552 line, with 84 extra-base hits and 26 SB against just 1 CS. In the two intervening years, Curtis has failed to post an OPS over .858 or a SLG over .494. Those numbers from a 1B spell trouble; when you consider Granderson plays CF acceptably, it’s hard to nitpick. In fact, Granderson walked 52 times in 2007, but in the next two seasons walked 71 and 72 times, respectively, a very positive trend for a player who likely slots in as a 2-hole hitter for the Yanks.
He was also victimized in 2009 by a BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) of .275, well below his career average of .321. In his breakout ’07 campaign, he hit .360 on balls in play, making some regression completely understandable. His bad luck led to a .249 BA and .327 OBP in ’09. If Granderson’s luck improves in ’10 and he hits his career average of .272 while maintaining his walk rate, you’re looking at an OBP around .350, which is more than acceptable for a player with his power. In addition, his line drive percentage of 21% was right in line with his career norms, further indicating bad luck. He’s a good bet to improve on his 2009 season.
Continuing with the positives, Granderson posted the best AB to HR ratio for any full season in his career, reaching 30 HR for the first time. He posted his highest fly ball percentage as well – 49.3%, well up from the 40.7% he hit in 2008. For a player with Granderson’s raw speed, you might consider this a negative trend. But considering the park he’s moving to as a left-handed hitter, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that he could repeat if not exceed his home run total from 2009.
On a completely intangible positive note, the Yankees got even more likable. Granderson blogs for ESPN and has done some TV work for the MLB Network, and he always comes across as very charismatic and personable. So many observers noted the improvement in the Yankees’ team chemistry this season. Whether or not there’s a cause and effect between that improvement and winning a championship is open for debate – I personally think it had more to do with the Yankees’ hoarding of awesome baseball players – but Granderson should fit nicely into the clubhouse culture and quickly become a fan favorite.
As for the players lost: obviously, trading Jackson hurts the most. Jackson excelled in the low-minors, had a nice debut in AAA last season, and appeared on track to become the Yankees’ everyday CF in either 2010 or 2011. He was exactly the type of player many Yankees fans pined for during the interminable (for us) 9 year championship drought – young, cheap, homegrown, fast, athletic, fundamentally solid. Promoting from within became the antidote to signing old, past their prime, injury prone free agents, a decision-making flaw that hamstrung the team – financially and otherwise – for years.
But I think that Yankee fans, myself included, tend to overrate their prospects, and we’re all somewhat guilty of doing so with AJax. He displayed very little power, hitting 4 HR in AAA last year and never hitting more than 10 in any minor league season. Along with those 4 HR came 123 Ks in 557 plate appearances, and if Austin lacked power and the ability to make consistent contact in Scranton, he more than likely wasn’t going to find it in the American League East, at least not any time soon. The Yankees can’t afford to be ultra-patient with a player like Jackson, who at times was referred to as an athlete learning to play baseball. Still, Jackson retains a promising mix of speed and above-average defense, and has youth and the upside to develop average power down the road. I hope he finds success with the Tigers, but something tells me it won’t be in 2010.
As for Phil Coke, let’s face it: championship goodwill aside, he’s a fungible left-handed reliever who is fairly easily replaced on the Yankees roster. They have Mike Dunn waiting in the wings, and reportedly have their eye on free agent strikeout machine Mike Gonzalez. Coke burst onto the scene with an impressive September callup in 2008, before making the team out of spring training in ’09 and keeping his spot all the way through the World Series. He pitched effectively, as lefties hit just .195/.218/.366 against him. Still, considering the volatility of reliever performance, he likely won’t be missed.
Ian Kennedy fell out of favor with the Yankees in 2008 when he made the starting rotation, pitched terribly, was demoted, eventually recalled, pitched terribly again, then capped a magical year off by saying dumb things to a group of reporters in Anaheim. Kennedy threw well in AAA in 2009, before surgery to remove an aneurysm cost him most of the year. He came all the way back to the majors, appearing in a late season game in relief, then reported to the Arizona Fall League and pitched well enough there to merit a look in 2010. A pitcher with Kennedy’s raw stuff – or more accurately, lack thereof – was probably never going to thrive in the AL East without having exceptional command, which Kennedy has not shown at the highest level. I think his minor league success will eventually translate into some good seasons at the back of an NL West rotation, however, so Arizona should have a serviceable guy to throw behind their big 3 of Webb, Haren, and now Edwin Jackson.
For those who might argue that Austin Jackson should have been saved for a deal involving Roy Halladay: dream on. Vernon Wells has the worst, most unmovable contract in Major League Baseball; short of shifting him to an outfield corner, where his already anemic bat would play even worse, the Blue Jays really had no need for a young CF that is considered nearly Major League ready. If the Yankees were in the Halladay running yesterday, they still are today. Jesus Montero would probably have to be the centerpiece of that deal, with Joba and Phil Hughes as the supporting cast.
In summation, the Yankees will open 2010 with their best overall center fielder since Bernie Williams shuffled off this mortal coil around the start of 2003. Cashman has shown no willingness to stay complacent even after winning a World Championship, an encouraging sign for Yankees fans with dreams of a repeat performance. While many Yankees homers such as myself may shudder at giving up the team’s second-best prospect in the deal, such is the cost of remaining competitive every year. If that results in another World Championship, it’s a price I’d gladly pay.
