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Archive for 2009World Series Game 3 ThoughtsSome thoughts on Game 3, compiled while watching the Giants clash with the Eagles in the first half of an epic Philadelphia/New York Sunday doubleheader: - I’m thrilled for Nick Swisher, who, despite struggling horrendously throughout this postseason and taking some abuse in the media, continued to say all the right things and was finally able to contribute in Game 3. On the face of it, his benching in Game 2 seemed bizarre and maybe even a little panicky. Sure, Swish had looked awful for some time, but Jerry Hairston should never be mistaken for a corner outfielder, and Girardi was sacrificing not only offense but defense as well in making that switch. Swisher was back in the lineup last night, and his leadoff double in the 5th inning sparked a 3-run rally that gave the Yankees their first lead of the evening. Then, his long homer off J.A. Happ the following inning padded the lead even further to 6-3 and was ultimately the game-winning RBI. After the game, Swish filmed his own postgame press conference and seemed genuinely overjoyed. Hopefully this game is the start of something for Swish, as the Yankees look to lengthen their lineup without a DH in a National League park. - The key hit of the game – was it Swisher’s double? Alex Rodriguez’s camera-smashing 2-run homer in the 4th? Damon’s 2-run double in the 5th? In my mind, it’s Andy Pettitte’s bloop single in that same inning that scored Swisher from 2nd base and tied the game. The situation: the Yankees trailed 3-2 heading to the 5th. Swisher doubled to lead things off, bringing Melky Cabrera to the plate. In the right situation in an NL park, a leadoff double is fairly easy to work around, and this was one of those situations, especially after Cabrera struck out. Up came Pettitte, and it appeared nothing short of a 2-out hit from Jeter would score the tying run. Instead, Pettitte looped a Hamels curveball into center field, chasing Swisher home and making the possibility of a multi-run inning very real. Jeter would single, Damon would double home 2 runs, and the Yankees never really looked back. Who can say how the inning would have shaken out had Pettitte not come through in the most unlikely of ways? - Speaking of Pettitte, he was far from great, but he was good enough – 6IP, 4ER, 7Ks, 104 pitches. In a postgame interview, he blamed a good bit of his inconsistency on the 1hr 20min rain delay that preceded the first pitch, saying he was ready and feeling great before being shut down and never seemed to find it again. Because of Girardi’s (understandable) reluctance to turn to Chad Gaudin to start a World Series game, it seems probable that Pettitte’s next start would be on 3 days rest at home in Game 6 – unless the Yankees run the table in Philly. I thought before the Series started that the only way Gaudin got a start was if the Yankees won the first 3 games – well, Cliff Lee’s Game 1 masterpiece immediately scrapped that plan, and now we’re looking at every remaining Yankee start occurring on short rest. If you’re one of those fans looking for something to worry about, well, there it is. - Damaso Marte pitched a perfect 8th inning, throwing 13 of his 15 pitches for strikes and fanning Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth, who had already homered twice. It was a really impressive performance from Marte, and it appears to me that he’s leapfrogged Phil Coke as Girardi’s left-handed specialist of choice. MicroJoe was even wise enough to let Marte face Werth with a 4-run lead. Based on this performance, I have to say that in a big spot with Utley and Howard due up, I’d rather see Marte than Coke. He’s always had electric stuff and he has a ton more experience in games like these than the rookie Coke. Meanwhile, Phil Hughes again struggled in the 9th, retiring Pedro Feliz before allowing the light-hitting Carlos Ruiz to homer, cutting the Yankee lead to 8-5. This prompted Girardi to call for Mariano Rivera and the game was essentially over at this point. Mo dispatched the next two hitters with just 5 pitches, ending the game. There are a lot of people that will disagree with Girardi involving Rivera in a non-save situation in a game that seemed all but over. I’m not one of those people. Game 3 was absolutely pivotal – a victory ensured the Yanks the luxury of needing to win just 1 of these 2 remaining games in Philly in order to return to the Bronx with a 3-2 series lead. Of course the Phillies are more than capable of winning 2 games at Yankee Stadium, but it certainly isn’t likely, particularly with Charlie Manuel’s reluctance to start Cliff Lee on short rest. At this point, Cole Hamels is penciled in for a Game 7 start (or Blanton on short rest), and given the way he was beaten around last night, I don’t think that’s inspiring much confidence in the Phillies or their fans. And given Hughes’ prolonged struggles, this move was necessary to put the foot on the collective throats of the NL champs. - Finally, Hideki Matsui proved that he has very real value to the Yankees in these NL games, even if he isn’t starting. Girardi was apparently kicking around the idea of starting Matsui in left field – it’s a good thing he didn’t. Damon had a pivotal hit and Matsui came through with a pinch hit home run off Brett Myers that all but put the game away. It’s not entirely clear how much worse Matsui could be in left field than Damon is, but what’s perfectly clear is that there’s no need to find that out in a World Series game. In games Matsui did not start this season, he hit .381/.536/.619 with a home run. There’s enormous value in having that kind of bat available to hit for a pitcher late in the game. World Series Game 2 ThoughtsRandom observations about a somewhat unexpected pitchers duel: ◊ I like AJ Burnett a little bit more today. That’s easy to say after the man gave up one run over seven innings in a must win World Series game. Burnett threw a first pitch strike to 18 of 26 batters last night. The three batters that made contact on the first pitch all made outs. All of that combined for 4 hits, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts in 7 innings. Or more simply, AJ was filthy in the strike zone. That’s pretty tough to hit. He had a few uh-oh moments but got through them with relative ease. The double in the second inning was a nicely placed pop fly that Johnny Damon simply couldn’t reach. AJ’s boldest move came in challenging left-handed Ryan Howard in the third after pitching around Chase Utley. Burnett got Howard to flail at a 2-2 pitch and gave up only two hits over the next four innings. I’ll be the first to tell you that I wasn’t thrilled with the Burnett signing. I like him as a pitcher. I just didn’t like him as a pitcher getting a five year deal at $16 million a pop. We’ve all seen why throughout this season. Burnett can go Jekyll and Hyde not only within a ballgame but within an inning. There seems to be little rhyme or reason as to why. We saw flashes of Hyde during game two, but in short spurts. I haven’t been a big fan of Molina being behind the plate in this series, but Jose made some stops with runners on base that I seriously doubt Posada would have made, plus a pickoff at first in the fourth inning. ◊ Pedro Martinez was almost as good, mixing a tremendous amount of off-speed pitches to keep the Yankees off-balance. Pedro threw 34 fastballs and 5 cutters, both in the 88 to 90 MPH range. It was his change-up that received the most work, a staggering 44 pitches, complimented by 11 sliders and 13 curves. Pedro is really interesting to watch right now. While he used to be known as a power pitcher in his hey day, it was his change-up that made him devastating because of his deception and change in speed. The fastball is gone now, but the deception and ability to change speeds are still there. He threw 72 of his 107 pitches for strikes and ranged his pitches from an 89 MPH fastball to an 81 MPH change-up and a 71 MPH curveball that buckled a few knees. Yankee fans will remember the re-imagining of Mike Mussina last year, his fastball depleted and forcing Moose to slow down his curve to keep hitters off balance. David Cone faced a similar issue and started varying looks on his slider to confuse hitters. Pedro has found himself in the same boat, only now he’s just adjusting what he was already great at: deception, location, and change of speed. He may still have a few years left in him. ◊ Mark Teixeira woke up last night and the timing couldn’t have been better. Tex only went 1 for 3, but the one was a big home run in the fourth to tie the game and give the Yankees a much needed jolt. Tex hasn’t looked great at the plate, but he certainly isn’t alone. ◊ Hideki Matsui was the only Yankee with two hits and reached base three times. One of those hits, a bomb to right field off Pedro in the sixth, got the “Who’s Your Daddy?” chants flying once again. It was good to see Matsui pull a pitch after topping three outside pitches to the right side in game one. Usually those toppers are a sign of a Godzilla out of sorts but Matsui rebounded nicely. Too bad he’s going to be relegated to pinch hitter status in Philly. There’s a better than good chance that Matsui could be taking his last turns in pinstripes. Even with his inability to play the outfield this season, it’s hard to complain about what he’s contributed to this team. Before the Yankees decide that DH by committee is a good idea for 2010, they might want to consider the production Matsui gave them in that spot. Losing his bat means that an average to below average hitter will likely be either DHing or in the field almost daily so that Posada, Tex, or ARod can get a rest. That’s a significant downgrade from what Matsui has contributed at the plate and weakens the Yankees lineup. Posada has been durable this season coming off shoulder surgery and his arm has looked much stronger than the beginning of the season. There’s no reason to coddle him until it’s absolutely necessary. ◊ Mariano Rivera came in for two full innings last night, further reaffirming that Joe Girardi has completely lost faith in his bullpen. Rivera gave up a walk and a single in the eighth before inducing a rare double play to get out of the inning. Strangely, the runner at first was safe, the second blown call in as many innings. I understand Girardi’s trepidation in using his bullpen but he’s painting himself into a corner here. Rivera is getting over-worked and this series plays three games in a row in Philly. How many innings does Girardi think Mo can throw in a three day span? Five? Six? The bigger issue is that the rest of the bullpen is simply not throwing because Girardi is afraid to use them. I can’t tell you what is best to get a pitcher out of a funk. In Hughes case, if he’s tired, a little extra rest may be the best help. But for guys like Robertson and Marte who missed time down the stretch, I would imagine extra rest may not be the best thing. If Girardi is able to get seven plus innings out of Pettitte on Saturday, you can be sure he’ll bring Rivera out again as soon as possible. I hope he’ll show some restraint and let the rest of the pen get a chance in a close game. He has enough arms to mix and match and at least keep Rivera available for the next day. ◊ The umpiring, as usual, was as arrogant as it was clumsy. First base umpire Brian Gorman screwed up a call against Chase Utley on a double play that ended the top of the eighth. Only half an inning before, Gorman ruled that Ryan Howard had caught a ball on the fly that was actually a short hop. Howard threw wide to second base, thinking he needed a force because he didn’t actually catch the ball and Posada was tagged out. Replays showed clearly that the ball was short hopped and the Yankees lost two outs to a bad call in a key situation in the seventh inning. Gorman refused to consult with the rest of the umpires on the field, despite the fact that he was behind Howard and couldn’t see the ball go into the glove. Gorman didn’t have the proper view of the play, yet refused to get help and ended the inning on a double play that didn’t happen. Gorman’s decision was strange given that a similar play happened in game one where Rollins made a similar play and actually caught the ball and doubled Matsui off of first. The umps convened to make sure Rollins had indeed caught the ball and not trapped it. Why last night’s play didn’t receive similar treatment can only be chalked up to arrogance and stupidity. For a union that doesn’t want accountability, the umps are doing themselves a terrible disservice in their performance this postseason. They’re better off conferring with each other on questionable calls than letting bad calls stand. All that will do is hasten the outcry for more instant replay. ◊ The chats continue and fun has been had by all. If you haven’t yet, stop by and join us on Saturday. We’ve even had some Philly and Red Sox fans come in.
World Series Game 1 ThoughtsRandom thoughts on a game that doesn’t need much explanation: ◊ Last night’s game pretty much begins and ends with Cliff Lee. Sure, Chase Utley deserves props for hitting not one but two home runs against fellow lefty CC Sabathia. Lee was downright filthy. Lee threw 122 pitches across his complete game, 80 of which were strikes. He gave up six hits, one run and zero walks. The walk count is the most telling. Not only was Lee in or around the strike zone all night, freezing the Yankees with change-ups he seemed to spot at will. Take a look at Lee’s pitches versus strikes breakdown:
Thirteen of Lee’s twenty-one change-ups were non-swinging strikes. Twelve of sixteen curveballs were strikes. Lee had every pitch working for him last night, evidenced by the fact that only two batters made it to a full count. Thankfully, Lee threw 122 pitches and has never pitched on three days rest before. Charlie Manual probably won’t consider using him on short rest. ◊ It wasn’t a great night for CC Sabathia but, considering how it started, it was still pretty good. CC’s only mistakes were the solo home runs to Chase Utley who inexplicably got the same fastball over the middle of the plate on both swings. The second one was preceded by Posada trying to get CC to go outside with Sabathia refusing. The result was a souvenir for an unhappy fan. Sabathia gave up 3 home runs to lefties this season across 216 plate appearances. Utley did it twice in one game. ◊ Jimmy Rollins started off the game with a bunt down the first baseline for an out. It was a silly play by the outspoken Rollins, who probably thought the element of surprise was more important than seeing what CC was throwing that evening. Rollins wasted an out in what was eventually a bases loaded situation that CC narrowly escaped from. So what does Johnny Damon do in the bottom of the first with one out after Jeter struck out on three pitches? Bunt, of course. Did the Yankee bench sit and marvel at Rollins’ bunt attempt in the first, their heads filling with grandiose thoughts of wasted outs? ◊ Phil Hughes couldn’t find the plate last night, starting the eighth inning by walking two batters that eventually scored. As Hughes left the mound, he barked at Gerry Davis, the home plate umpire. Phil’s location chart doesn’t support Phil’s frustration. Hughes pitched in plenty of high leverage situations this season, making it difficult to understand why he’s struggled lately. It could be a tired arm or the just a bad patch of games at an inopportune time. Hughes fastball has been right inline with his regular season performance in regards to speed and break. His slider has actually gotten a little bit faster which may eliminate the tired arm explanation. The most curious thing about Hughes last night was he didn’t feature his cutter, which has been very effective for him. Why he would drop his cutter at this stage is a bit puzzling but considering he couldn’t get his fastball over the plate, he probably wouldn’t have gotten the cutter either. ◊ I had high hopes that the addition of Brian Bruney meant better use of David Robertson. We saw the start of that last night, with Robertson coming in during the eighth inning while Joba sat in the pen wearing a sweatshirt. Robertson walked Werth on four pitches, then gave up a seeing-eye grounder to Ibanez that plated two runs. He ended the inning by getting Francisco to ground out. Not a bad performance by Robertson as the ground ball was mostly bad luck. I didn’t expect to see Brian Bruney come out and pitch the ninth. At that point, even the most confident of fan must have been doubtful that the Yankees could come back from four runs down, which may have been in the back of Girardi’s mind. Four runs is easier than six, though, and Bruney’s ineffectiveness left him with two earned runs in a third of an inning. Bruney hasn’t pitched in a game since the end of the regular season. If Girardi wants to put him in to get him going, he needs to keep the leash a little bit shorter. ◊ Pedro Martinez starts for the Phillies tonight. It’s amazing how a few good starts can make people believe in Pedro again. His fastball has been averaging about 89 miles per hour, which isn’t very good. It’s his change-up, which sits around 79-80 that can be Pedro’s damage pitch just like his old days. He needs to throw it for strikes which is something he did only half the time against the Dodgers. In Pedro’s 130 pitch marathon against the Mets in September, Martinez featured three kinds of fastballs, a change-up, curveball, slider and a cutter. Everything but the kitchen sink. The hapless Mets bailed Pedro out a bit as none of his pitches were overly effective. Pedro is certainly capable of pitching a good game, especially if the Yankees are impatient with him. But realistically, Pedro hasn’t performed against an offense of the Yankees caliber yet, making me doubtful that the Phillies can expect more than a mediocre performance. ◊ Burnett gets the ball tonight and Jose Molina likely will be behind the plate. It’s a waste of a bat, but whatever. Girardi has to stick to his guns at this point. Putting Posada behind the plate now would be an admission that Molina didn’t have to be there in Burnett’s other three starts. I can’t see Girardi doing that, not even if AJ pitches game five in Philly. ◊ We’re chatting again tonight for game 2. Come on by and join us. World Series Rotation and Roster QuestionsQuestions abound a day away from game one of the World Series. Rob Neyer, responding to Dan Rosenheck the NY Times, who suggests Girardi keep his options open:
That’s a pretty brutal pitching schedule if the series actually goes seven games. And, as usual, weather is a concern as game one looks iffy. Remove that off day on the 30th and this plan gets all blowns up. Put a rain day into the calendar and suddenly the rotation looks like this: 10/28 — rain Pettitte pitching game seven wouldn’t be the worst scenario in the world. Having Sabathia pitch it would obviously be better. There’s two key points here that Girardi has to consider when making this decision as Neyer points out:
Chad Gaudin has thrown 13 pitches in a game since October 3rd. I can’t tell you what he’s done on the sidelines during those 24 days but I will assume it isn’t as effective as facing live batters. Chad’s a big boy and I’m pretty sure he would remember what it’s like to throw to people pretty quickly. I just don’t think a right-handed back of the rotation starter on 24 days rest has much business trying to pitch to a strong left-handed lineup like the Phillies. Surprisingly, though, the Phillies have actually fared a little bit better against left-handed pitching:
The split isn’t nearly as wide as I expected. The Phillies left-handed hitters have hit right-handed pitching pretty well, but they’ve done pretty good against left-handed pitchers, too. Consider also Ryan Howard’s career platoon splits:
His 2009 splits are even wider apart than that (1.086 vs .653 OPS). Considering the effect Howard’s extremes have on the team’s numbers, once you get past him in the lineup, the Phillies hit lefties okay. So, what should Girardi do regarding his rotation? We’ve covered Sabathia’s history on short rest. Here’s Pettitte’s and Burnett’s numbers on three days rest as compared to four:
Burnett only has 27 innings to judge on, which isn’t a lot. It is encouraging, however, that he didn’t implode in those 27 innings. His strike out and walk numbers stayed close to average but he gave up a few less hits (which could just be the luck of the small sample). Pettitte has fared not quite as well. His strike out rate is better but his walk rate is elevated. Again, it’s only 86.2 innings so it’s difficult to make concrete judgments. We’re looking for extreme abnormalities more than subtle differences. I wouldn’t be adverse to Girardi going with Neyer’s proposed schedule, assuming rain does not get in the way. If Pettitte pitches on three days rest, he has to be on a short leash. When Andy doesn’t have it, he very rarely reclaims it. I would keep Chad Gaudin ready to fill in for long relief. Burnett is a tough read because just when you think he’s done for the day, he finds his control and starts pitching effectively (see ALCS game 5). He’s more than capable of giving innings and has been surprisingly healthy this year. I can’t say there should be no concern about Sabathia doing two starts back to back on short rest. Of course there should be concern. Despite the lauding of the press, he isn’t Superman and, at some point, he will tire. What needs to be balanced here is the difference in expected performance between Chad Gaudin in game four and Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte combining for four possible starts on three days rest. Are the gains that much greater by having Gaudin replaced by Sabathia on short rest that it justifies altering the rest of the rotations schedule as well? That’s almost impossible to say. I don’t know what Gaudin is right now. He’s a pitcher with little workload lately. What happens in these games will go a long way toward determining how well this short rest schedule will work. Girardi will need to lean on his pen earlier in some of these games whenever possible. There is no reason for any of these pitchers to be throwing late into a game if they have a comfortable lead. If he is going to throw guys off their normal routines, he needs to at least try and protect them in their first starts. There has been some suggestion that the Yankees should play it by ear. What does that mean in a seven game series, exactly? If the Yankees are up 3-0, they can afford to give up a game? What if they’re up 2-1? Down 2-1? Down 3-0? The only scenario where it makes even the slightest bit of sense to not throw your best available pitcher out there is if the Yankees are up 3-0. Even then, do you really want to enter a World Series game, one of seven, where you’re not fielding the best team you can? I say go on the short rest. – There is absolutely no reason for the Yankees to carry Freddy Guzman on the World Series roster. In fact, there was little reason for him to be on the ALCS roster except to give Girardi options to use incorrectly. Eric Hinske needs to be added for the games in Philadelphia. Matsui will also be on the bench since there will be no DH, giving the Yankees two very good power bats for the late innings in a tiny ballpark. It’s silly that Hinske hasn’t had any at-bats since October 4th since he would have made a better pinch hitting option than Francisco Cervelli, but those are the breaks when you’re team carries two pinch runners and three catchers. – Speaking of which, the Yankees should only carry two catchers this round. Cervelli never actually caught and was only used as a pinch hitter. Get him out of there. It might be smart to carry an extra reliever in Cervelli’s spot to cover a possible three days rest rotation. More options earlier in games could be helpful. – Need more reasons to drop Cervelli from the roster? AJ Burnett could be pitching game five in Philadelphia. If Jose Molina catches him, that means the eighth and ninth hitters that day will be… Jose Molina and AJ Burnett. I think we learned in game five of the ALCS something that we already knew: AJ Burnett’s control problems are not caused by his catcher. Burnett had his worst run of the season that game, giving up four runs in the first before even recording an out. Behind the plate calling the shots was Jose Molina. If Girardi wants to start Molina for Burnett in game two, I’m not going to argue because, frankly, I’ve had it with the argument. However, as bad as Posada has been at the plate, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be behind it in Philadelphia when Burnett pitches. At-bats are at a premium and game five could be a pivotal game. Posada’s bat needs to be in that lineup. Conversely, if Molina does start in Philadelphia and he’s pinch hit for, it’s going to be by Posada. Where does Cervelli fit in this roster? He has absolutely no reason to be on this squad except as an injury backup when a second catcher has entered the game. That, my friends, is a waste of a roster spot. You’re backup catcher is your injury backup, not your third string AA catcher. – Let’s not overreact about Phil Hughes performance in game five of the ALCS. He’s been a bit up and down in the playoffs. It happens. The guy was lights out for most of the season. I’ve speculated that he could be a bit tired. That could certainly be the case. That doesn’t mean that every starter needs to go 7.1 innings and hand it off to Rivera. Even Rivera is going to give up a run here and there. Abuse him and he’ll give up more. Hughes will be fine. Let’s not suddenly pretend that the guy hasn’t been a great pitcher for four months because of a rough outing or two. – In completely unrelated baseball news, Mark McGwire is returning to the St. Louis Cardinals as a hitting coach. This strikes me as a silly move for the Cardinals. Teams often have to balance on the field performance with the personalities and controversies that come along with certain players (think Milton Bradley, Gary Sheffield, the still unemployed Barry Bonds). What is the sense in a team as successful and as heralded as the Cardinals to invite such controversy into their clubhouse for a hitting coach? The positive or negative effect a hitting coach has on a squad is difficult to quantify but, on the whole, it’s usually considered minimal. So, what’s the benefit of having a controversy magnet like McGwire around your clubhouse, especially with little experience coaching in a team environment? I’m sure McGwire gets a home town discount when it comes to pessimism about his career. After awhile, though, seeing his scrawny unpumped up frame on television on a regular basis is going to have people asking the same questions over and over. Any guesses as to which network will show a side by side of playing McGwire versus coaching McGwire? If you’re the Cardinals and you’re going to invite this nonsense into your house, you had better be smart about it. The Cardinals should demand as part of the deal that McGwire lay it all out in a press conference on the first day of spring training and move on. He won’t, though. If he wasn’t going to talk to Congress, he’s not going to talk to the press. And McGwire will spend the rest of his life insisting he doesn’t want to talk about the past. The man who was part of a dynamic duo that electrified the sport in 1998 and heralded as an ambassador for the game will continue to hide, convincing all of us more and more that he used PEDs. Get it over with, Mark. You’re career is already tainted. Own up to your mistakes and give us a chance to like you again. – We’ll be chatting again during the World Series. Thankfully, I think my kids will be done trick or treating by the start of game three (bravo once more, FOX…). We’ve had a great turnout and lots of fun so if you haven’t joined us already, come on by. |
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