The Bronx View

Questions abound a day away from game one of the World Series.

Rob Neyer, responding to Dan Rosenheck the NY Times, who suggests Girardi keep his options open:

… I wonder if any manager in the history of ever has gone into a World Series with such flexibility.

No, I’m sure that many of them have. Just not in the last few decades. My guess is that Girardi will announce, any moment now, that 1) Sabathia will start Games 1, 4 and (if necessary) 7, and that both A.J. Burnett and Andy Pettitte will make their second Series starts on short rest. Like this:

10/28 — Sabathia
10/29 — Burnett
10/30 — off
10/31 — Pettitte
11/ 1 — Sabathia
11/ 2 — Burnett
11/ 3 — off
11/ 4 — Pettitte
11/ 5 — Sabathia

Which would be, though not as radical as holding Sabathia in reserve, still pretty radical. I don’t know how often managers enter a World Series figuring on four short-rest starts, but I don’t believe it’s happened much lately.

The only real alternative — assuming Sabathia’s going to start three times — would be Chad Gaudin in Game 5, but does Girardi believe that Gaudin on roughly a month’s rest is better than Pettitte on three days?

That’s a pretty brutal pitching schedule if the series actually goes seven games.  And, as usual, weather is a concern as game one looks iffy.  Remove that off day on the 30th and this plan gets all blowns up.

Put a rain day into the calendar and suddenly the rotation looks like this:

10/28 — rain
10/29 — Sabathia
10/30 — Burnett
10/31 — Pettitte
11/ 1 — Gaudin
11/ 2 — Sabathia
11/ 3 — off
11/ 4 — Burnett
11/ 5 — Pettitte

Pettitte pitching game seven wouldn’t be the worst scenario in the world.  Having Sabathia pitch it would obviously be better.

There’s two key points here that Girardi has to consider when making this decision as Neyer points out:

1. Can Pettitte and Burnett handle three days rest effectively?
2. Can Chad Gaudin be effective after having pitched one inning since the end of the season?

Chad Gaudin has thrown 13 pitches in a game since October 3rd.  I can’t tell you what he’s done on the sidelines during those 24 days but I will assume it isn’t as effective as facing live batters.  Chad’s a big boy and I’m pretty sure he would remember what it’s like to throw to people pretty quickly.  I just don’t think a right-handed back of the rotation starter on 24 days rest has much business trying to pitch to a strong left-handed lineup like the Phillies.

Surprisingly, though, the Phillies have actually fared a little bit better against left-handed pitching:

The split isn’t nearly as wide as I expected.  The Phillies left-handed hitters have hit right-handed pitching pretty well, but they’ve done pretty good against left-handed pitchers, too.

Consider also Ryan Howard’s career platoon splits:

His 2009 splits are even wider apart than that (1.086 vs .653 OPS).  Considering the effect Howard’s extremes have on the team’s numbers, once you get past him in the lineup, the Phillies hit lefties okay.

So, what should Girardi do regarding his rotation?  We’ve covered Sabathia’s history on short rest. Here’s Pettitte’s and Burnett’s numbers on three days rest as compared to four:

Burnett only has 27 innings to judge on, which isn’t a lot.  It is encouraging, however, that he didn’t implode in those 27 innings.  His strike out and walk numbers stayed close to average but he gave up a few less hits (which could just be the luck of the small sample).

Pettitte has fared not quite as well.  His strike out rate is better but his walk rate is elevated.  Again, it’s only 86.2 innings so it’s difficult to make concrete judgments.  We’re looking for extreme abnormalities more than subtle differences.

I wouldn’t be adverse to Girardi going with Neyer’s proposed schedule, assuming rain does not get in the way.  If Pettitte pitches on three days rest, he has to be on a short leash.  When Andy doesn’t have it, he very rarely reclaims it.  I would keep Chad Gaudin ready to fill in for long relief.

Burnett is a tough read because just when you think he’s done for the day, he finds his control and starts pitching effectively (see ALCS game 5).  He’s more than capable of giving innings and has been surprisingly healthy this year.

I can’t say there should be no concern about Sabathia doing two starts back to back on short rest.  Of course there should be concern.  Despite the lauding of the press, he isn’t Superman and, at some point, he will tire.

What needs to be balanced here is the difference in expected performance between Chad Gaudin in game four and Sabathia/Burnett/Pettitte combining for four possible starts on three days rest.  Are the gains that much greater by having Gaudin replaced by Sabathia on short rest that it justifies altering the rest of the rotations schedule as well?

That’s almost impossible to say.  I don’t know what Gaudin is right now.  He’s a pitcher with little workload lately.  What happens in these games will go a long way toward determining how well this short rest schedule will work.  Girardi will need to lean on his pen earlier in some of these games whenever possible.  There is no reason for any of these pitchers to be throwing late into a game if they have a comfortable lead.  If he is going to throw guys off their normal routines, he needs to at least try and protect them in their first starts.

There has been some suggestion that the Yankees should play it by ear.  What does that mean in a seven game series, exactly?  If the Yankees are up 3-0, they can afford to give up a game?  What if they’re up 2-1?  Down 2-1?  Down 3-0?

The only scenario where it makes even the slightest bit of sense to not throw your best available pitcher out there is if the Yankees are up 3-0.  Even then, do you really want to enter a World Series game, one of seven, where you’re not fielding the best team you can?

I say go on the short rest.

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There is absolutely no reason for the Yankees to carry Freddy Guzman on the World Series roster.  In fact, there was little reason for him to be on the ALCS roster except to give Girardi options to use incorrectly.

Eric Hinske needs to be added for the games in Philadelphia.  Matsui will also be on the bench since there will be no DH, giving the Yankees two very good power bats for the late innings in a tiny ballpark.  It’s silly that Hinske hasn’t had any at-bats since October 4th since he would have made a better pinch hitting option than Francisco Cervelli, but those are the breaks when you’re team carries two pinch runners and three catchers.

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Speaking of which, the Yankees should only carry two catchers this round.  Cervelli never actually caught and was only used as a pinch hitter.  Get him out of there.  It might be smart to carry an extra reliever in Cervelli’s spot to cover a possible three days rest rotation.  More options earlier in games could be helpful.

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Need more reasons to drop Cervelli from the roster?

AJ Burnett could be pitching game five in Philadelphia.  If Jose Molina catches him, that means the eighth and ninth hitters that day will be… Jose Molina and AJ Burnett.

I think we learned in game five of the ALCS something that we already knew: AJ Burnett’s control problems are not caused by his catcher.  Burnett had his worst run of the season that game, giving up four runs in the first before even recording an out.  Behind the plate calling the shots was Jose Molina.

If Girardi wants to start Molina for Burnett in game two, I’m not going to argue because, frankly, I’ve had it with the argument.  However, as bad as Posada has been at the plate, there’s no reason why he shouldn’t be behind it in Philadelphia when Burnett pitches.  At-bats are at a premium and game five could be a pivotal game.  Posada’s bat needs to be in that lineup.

Conversely, if Molina does start in Philadelphia and he’s pinch hit for, it’s going to be by Posada.  Where does Cervelli fit in this roster?  He has absolutely no reason to be on this squad except as an injury backup when a second catcher has entered the game.

That, my friends, is a waste of a roster spot.  You’re backup catcher is your injury backup, not your third string AA catcher.

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Let’s not overreact about Phil Hughes performance in game five of the ALCS.  He’s been a bit up and down in the playoffs.  It happens.  The guy was lights out for most of the season.

I’ve speculated that he could be a bit tired.  That could certainly be the case.  That doesn’t mean that every starter needs to go 7.1 innings and hand it off to Rivera.  Even Rivera is going to give up a run here and there.  Abuse him and he’ll give up more.

Hughes will be fine.  Let’s not suddenly pretend that the guy hasn’t been a great pitcher for four months because of a rough outing or two.

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In completely unrelated baseball news, Mark McGwire is returning to the St. Louis Cardinals as a hitting coach.

This strikes me as a silly move for the Cardinals.  Teams often have to balance on the field performance with the personalities and controversies that come along with certain players (think Milton Bradley, Gary Sheffield, the still unemployed Barry Bonds).  What is the sense in a team as successful and as heralded as the Cardinals to invite such controversy into their clubhouse for a hitting coach?

The positive or negative effect a hitting coach has on a squad is difficult to quantify but, on the whole, it’s usually considered minimal.  So, what’s the benefit of having a controversy magnet like McGwire around your clubhouse, especially with little experience coaching in a team environment?

I’m sure McGwire gets a home town discount when it comes to pessimism about his career.  After awhile, though, seeing his scrawny unpumped up frame on television on a regular basis is going to have people asking the same questions over and over.  Any guesses as to which network will show a side by side of playing McGwire versus coaching McGwire?

If you’re the Cardinals and you’re going to invite this nonsense into your house, you had better be smart about it.  The Cardinals should demand as part of the deal that McGwire lay it all out in a press conference on the first day of spring training and move on.

He won’t, though.  If he wasn’t going to talk to Congress, he’s not going to talk to the press.  And McGwire will spend the rest of his life insisting he doesn’t want to talk about the past.  The man who was part of a dynamic duo that electrified the sport in 1998 and heralded as an ambassador for the game will continue to hide, convincing all of us more and more that he used PEDs.

Get it over with, Mark.  You’re career is already tainted.  Own up to your mistakes and give us a chance to like you again.

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We’ll be chatting again during the World Series.  Thankfully, I think my kids will be done trick or treating by the start of game three (bravo once more, FOX…).  We’ve had a great turnout and lots of fun so if you haven’t joined us already, come on by.

Reflections on an evening I spent singing the Theme to New York, New York over and over while alone in my kitchen:

◊ Great game pitched by Andy Pettitte last night. It’s rare that you see Pettitte let out a yell or a fist pump but clearly, Andy was dialed in and on a mission.

It’s funny thing to look over Pettitte’s postseason history.  He’s always referred to as a “big game” pitcher, a rep that surely started sometime after game 5 of the 1996 World Series when he threw 8.1 shutout innings against the Braves, capping an improbable three straight wins in Atlanta and bringing the Yankees a win away from winning the Series.

Andy’s had some stinkers (game 2 of the 1997 ALDS, game one of the 1996 World Series, game 6 of the 2001 World Series, game 3 of the 1998 ALCS), and he’s pitched some gems (the 1996 game 5 in the World Series, 1998 game 4 of the World Series, 2000 game 5 of the World Series).

Thankfully, in the final tally the good games outweigh the bad, and Pettitte has been a lot more consistent in the postseason since 2003. Not surprisingly, Pettitte’s postseason ERA of 3.83 is just a hair under his career mark of 3.91 with his walk and strikeout rates following similar trends.  Pitch enough innings and it usually evens out.

◊ Joba came in during the seventh last night and a nation of fans held their breath. He got the job done, though, retiring two batters on ground balls with only seven pitches, four of which were strikes.  The confusion continues.

The one thing I think we have learned about Joba over the last two months is that it doesn’t matter what role he is in if he isn’t pitching well.  I am firmly in the Joba as a starter camp and nothing that has happened this season has changed my mind.

Joba hasn’t come out of the pen during the postseason and blown people’s doors off like he did in 2007.  He’s a kid who hasn’t pitched nearly as long as some other guys his age.  He’s learning his craft on the major league level and, because of that, he’s going to have many ups and downs.

That’s learning.  It’s rare that the Yankees let a guy learn on the big club, but Joba is getting that chance.  If he stays healthy and isn’t too pigheaded to learn a thing or two, it will likely pay dividends for the Yankees rotation for years to come.

◊ Nick Swisher got a hit and scored a run! He also reached on some shoddy Angels defense that basically ended their season.

I am not a big fan of the sacrifice bunt.  Late in games when you need a run, okay, sometimes I can live with it.

However, I think it’s a bad move when you’re asking a guy like Nick Swisher who, in 3189 plate appearances, has sacrifice bunted 8 times.  Chances are, he’s not very good at it.  Once Swish found himself on first base (aided by the fundamentally unsound Angels defense), Girardi replaced Nick with pinch runner Brett Gardner.

Well, Joe… If you didn’t mind losing Swish for Gardner, and Swish is going to square before the ball even leaves the pitcher’s hand, why not just pinch hit Gardner and let HIM bunt?  If the bunt is THAT important, put up a guy who can bunt and stands a better chance of beating out the play at first.

Joe was hedging his bet.  If the bunt failed, Joe didn’t want Gardner’s bat at the plate with two strikes.  It’s that kind of half-hearted approach that continues to make Girardi a confusing manager to follow.  He’ll pinch run for Alex Rodriguez on the 4% chance that Freddy Guzman’s speed will help tie a game, but in willingly giving up and out, he will play it half way.  Doesn’t make sense.

◊ Swisher’s bunt left runners on first and second for the red hot Melky Cabrera who, of course, bunted.  Never mind that Melky is 9-23 with 3 walks and two doubles in the ALCS.  The important thing was to get the runners over.

This is called managing scared.  There was a runner in scoring position already in the person of Robbie Cano.  Not the fastest set of wheels on the track but certainly able to score from second.  Instead, Girardi decides to try and give up an out again to avoid a double play.

Do you know what the average number of double plays per game was in 2009 for the AL?  .80.  Less than one.

Do you know how many double plays there were in this game?  4.

I’m not going to say that the law of averages means that there wouldn’t have been another double play.  Averages are comprised of extremes and on occasion those extremes need to happen.

I just can’t get my head around the concept of giving up an out because there’s a 2% chance of giving up two outs.  You only have three outs, guys.  You shouldn’t go wasting them.

Naturally, there’s little reason for many to second guess because again the Angels season crumbled with errors abound, giving Mariano Rivera insurance runs that turned out not to be necessary.  Maybe if the Yankees swung away like they’ve been doing in late innings most of the year, they would have scored four runs instead of two.

If you play for one run, you’re usually lucky to get one run.  You’ll rarely get more.

◊ Damon and Teixeira continued to emerge from their postseason slumber, each going 2-4 with 3 RBI between them.  Damon added a walk while Tex hit a long sac fly that many (including John Sterling) thought was going to leave the park.  It would be nice if this streak continues into the World Series as, you know, that’s a pretty good time for an offense to get hot.

◊ You know that Hideki Matsui is not doing well when he hits three ground balls to the right side.  Matsui is notorious for trying to pull outside pitches when he’s not going well, the result usually being weak toppers to the right side.  Hideki did that three times last night before finally taking one the other way for a flyout in the seventh.  The World Series could be a little rough on Matsui as he’ll be on the bench for games three, four and five without the DH and relegated to pinch hitting duties.  I hope his bat can stay lukewarm at least.

◊ Some people questioned CC Sabathia getting the ALCS MVP award over ARod.

First off, who cares?

Secondly, CC almost single-handedly won the Yankees two games.  He threw 16 innings, gave up two runs, nine hits, three walks and struck out twelve.  The Angels really didn’t stand a chance against him.  Two victories are squarely on his back.

ARod has been fantastic.  There’s no arguing it.  I think CC gets the nod, if you care about such things.

◊ Speaking of ARod… Does the new found respect for ARod go completely in the can if he has a less than great World Series?  I certainly hope not.  I think ARod has stepped up and proven what we all hoped he would.  If ARod is merely average during the World Series, it doesn’t negate what he has done to this point.

◊ Mariano Rivera… I didn’t think Girardi should have started the eighth inning with Rivera.  I thought Girardi could have mixed and matched a little bit and kept Rivera warming in the pen.  Yeah, yeah, it’s the playoffs, all hands on deck, blah blah blah.

The Yankees record when leading in the eighth inning this year was 79-4.

79-4.  Think about that.

That means one of two things: either the closers role is an over-hyped waste of time, or the Yankees have a pretty good bullpen.

The answer probably lies somewhere in the middle.  Having a great closer is certainly a nice thing to have but sometimes that closer can be wasted when  locked down to the ninth inning (Thanks, save statistic!).  Girardi was smart in his use of Rivera in this series, twice throwing him into high leverage situations with runners on base and Rivera delivered.

The point is, the Yankees should have the arms to at least start the eighth inning.  If Rivera needs to come in early, so be it, but I didn’t see enough of a reason to completely ignore the rest of the pen in that situation.  Girardi managed the eighth inning like a man who didn’t want to be second guessed anymore.  Just stick Rivera out there and, if he blows it, well what am I supposed to do?  He’s Mariano Rivera!

Is that adequate or even smart managing?  It seemed like a man who didn’t want to be second guessed, even if it meant throwing Rivera out for more pitches than he’s thrown in an outing all year.

These past three days have been torture.  No question.  For those of us that live and die with each Yankee victory or defeat, a crushing postseason loss followed by an off-day followed by a rainout followed by another day of waiting can seem cruel and unusual.  I’ve found myself constantly plagued by harrowing visions of another early October exit, imagining all the ways this season that looked so promising on Tuesday night could be quickly and violently ended with two more losses.

When CC Sabathia finished his utter domination of the Angels on Tuesday night, the Yankees held firmly to a 3-1 series lead and the banter officially began between Yankees and Phillies fans, supporters of the two teams that seemed destined to collide on baseball’s biggest stage.

Then Thursday night happened.

Trailing 4-0 in the 7th inning to a heretofore dominant John Lackey, the Yankees loaded the bases with 2 outs.  Mike Scioscia improbably and inadvisedly went to his bullpen and the Yanks responded by putting 6 two-out runs on the board.  The fans went silent.  The Angels looked defeated.  They weren’t.

They went to work in the bottom half of the inning against AJ Burnett, who remained in the game for reasons that continue to defy logic, and eventually against Damaso Marte and Phil Hughes, scoring 3 runs and taking a 7-6 lead they would not relinquish despite another shaky 9th inning from their closer in name only, Brian Fuentes.

Now, this is where we stand: a 3-2 series lead, with games 6 and 7 to be played at home, and our two most reliable starters, Andy Pettitte and CC Sabathia, rested and ready to take the ball.

So why doesn’t this feel like it should?  Why are the silver linings so hard to find?  We, as Yankees fans, find ourselves in a position that fans of 14 other American League teams would love to be in.  Can you imagine the elation of a Kansas City Royals fan, waking as if from a long and disturbing nightmare to find his team one win away from competing in the World Series?  They lost 98 games in Baltimore and there’s no end in sight – you think those long-suffering fans wouldn’t kill for the opportunity to be up 3 to 2 in the ALCS, with 2 games upcoming in Camden Yards?

Still, it’s different for the Yankees.  It’s different for their fans.  When people make this claim, it often comes across as self-centered, arrogant, obnoxious entitlement.  Of course it’s different, those that delight in Yankee pain will counter – you root for a team that spends $200 million on the best and the brightest and goes into each season with high hopes of running another pennant atop their brand new, $1.5 billion, state-of-the-art facility.  That is different.

It’s different in other ways, too.

I don’t expect any non-Yankee fans to quite understand this, but because of the burden of expectation, because of the media scrutiny, because of the money and the notoriety and the recent history of crushing, abject pain and misery, the Yankees are often quite miserable to watch.  Because victory is not a possibility but an expected outcome, it often lacks joy.  When the Yankees roll into Cleveland in mid-August and take 3 straight games, it’s because that’s what they should have done.  If they take 2 of 3, they’ve missed an opportunity.  If they lose 2 of 3, they’re struggling and changes should be made.  If they lose all three, it’s a miserable failure on par with taking a shotgun to a barrel and managing to miss the fish.

Does that sound fun?

It can be.  It can be a ton of fun when they’re winning every series, beating the teams they need to, getting solid starting pitching and timely hitting, and winning 103 games.  That’s what this 2009 season was in a nutshell – a ton of fun.  With a few brief and minor exceptions, the Yankees played well all season and had their division essentially locked up in August.  Winning is fun.

I can compare this to my experience with rooting for one truly awful team: the New York Islanders.  I’ve been a lifelong fan – not with the fervor and the passion that I follow the Yankees, but close enough that I attend several games a year, I watch the games on television all winter, and I’m always (painfully) aware of where they stand in the league.

Once upon a time, the Islanders were a model franchise.  They had a crazy passionate fanbase, sellouts, star players, a dynasty that won 4 consecutive Stanley Cups.  Then I was born.  One year after the Islanders won their 4th, I wandered into this world.  Ever since then, it’s been a seemingly endless series of pratfalls, historically bad teams, logos that look like advertisements for fish sticks, and comically unprepared players.  Yet, I continue to watch because I love hockey and I love the Islanders.  It’s as simple as that.  Once in a while comes the rare season where, despite a lack of knock-you-down talent, the Islanders put together a thrilling season and find themselves in the playoffs (usually as the 8th seed).  The sheer joy I get from those seasons is almost unmatched.  I watch those series, in which they are usually saddled with the joyless task of taking on the top seed, with a sort of pleased detachment.  It’s surreal for me to see the Islanders in nationally televised games, to see the Coliseum packed to the rafters and loud as hell instead of empty, ugly, dreary, depressing.

It’s because the Islanders do not bear the burden of expectation.

If anything, they’re expected to lose every game.  That’s the attitude I assume from October to April, so when I turn on an Isles/Penguins tilt on a lazy Sunday afternoon and my hometown team takes it to the defending champions, for one day I feel like we’ve won a Stanley Cup.

Not so much for the Yankees.  They have hurt me deeply.  The 2004 season is one that I will never forget.  Any mention of it stings, and stings deep.  That season brought me to tears, made me violently unhappy, caused a deep depression that lasted for over a year and in many ways is still there.  When FOX runs that Dave Roberts stolen base, as they are wont to do on seemingly every telecast, I leave the room.  If I come across an article referencing that season, I skip ahead or move on.  My Red Sox fan friends, of which I have many, are generally respectful enough not to mention it to me.   I’ve never actually written anything about it, and doing so now is a deeply uncomfortable experience.

Which brings us to 2009, a different, much happier time.  We are back where we want to be – one victory away from the World Series, dominant starting pitching from our ace putting us on the brink.  So why is it so difficult for me to embrace this team at this moment?  It’s akin to walking into an animal shelter; you tell yourself over and over, “I will not get emotionally attached to these animals.”  Their impending death is too much to think about.  Don’t fall in love.  You’ll only get hurt.

I think about the hurt I felt in 2004 and I never want to be in that place again.  But finally, I feel different.  Maybe the rain-out gave me an extra, needed day away from the nerves and the sick-to-my-stomach feeling.  But I have had so much fun watching this team all season, writing about them, podcasting about them with a friend as passionate as I am.  Everything that failed them in previous seasons worked with an astounding level of success this year.  Big money free agent stars earned their paychecks and then some.  Wild cards like Nick Swisher played above and beyond expectation, the Gardner/Cabrera tandem was a moderate success, Phil Hughes moved to the bullpen and dominated.  Everything clicked.  They did stuff like this, this, and this.  They were a lovable bunch.

So why not now?  This is a wonderful baseball team.  It may have taken me until now to realize it, but that’s what they are – a wonderful team of talented players, competing in 2 crucial games with their best starters on the mound and in front of an adoring home crowd at a stadium in which they went an ML best 57-24.  If they fail – which they may – it won’t be because they aren’t great, and it won’t diminish their myriad accomplishments in 2009.  This is still a team to be proud of, a team to have fun watching.  I’m gonna give that a shot tonight.

I’m going to stop pinning my hopes for personal happiness on the Yankees pursuit of a world championship.  Maybe this will be a burden off their shoulders as they take the field tonight.

Now let’s see if this feeling carries over to 8:20 pm EST.  Until then, Stay Positive, Yankees fans.

Thoughts about the game while I try to stop my head from sadly shaking:

◊ Last night once again encapsulated AJ Burnett as a pitcher. Burnett came out in the bottom of the first and stunk up the joint, allowing four runs before an out was recorded.  A long flyout and double play later, AJ gets out of the inning and puts up zeros for the next five.  Burnett gave up five hits and two walks over that scoreless five innings, complimented by a wild pitch.  When Yankee fans talk about mystique and aura, they may be referring to Burnett’s control.

◊ Despite that five inning stretch and 80 pitch count, the bullpen should have been humming when AJ took the mound in the bottom of the seventh.  Instead, Girardi waited for Burnett to give up a single and a walk before bringing in Marte.  I can understand letting AJ start the seventh, although I probably wouldn’t have done it.  It was a minor miracle that AJ made it that far with the lead.  There was little reason for Girardi not to mix and match his bullpen to try and maintain the lead.

This is where Girardi is at his most confusing.  In a tie game, such as game three, Girardi will mix and match his bullpen until he finds a reliever that can stabilize the game.  In game two, it happened to be Hughes after Joba, Marte, and Coke all got a shot.

In game five, the bullpen wasn’t prepared for a reliever, or even Burnett, to fail.  Hughes was left out there for the entirety of the inning without a good fastball, appearing to shake Posada off three times before surrendering a game tying single to Vlad on… a fastball.

The formula, or at least our understanding of the formula, was to get to the seventh inning and have the bullpen shut the door.  You can’t judge the moves in this inning by what happened.  It’s easy to say now that it’s a good thing Joba didn’t come in because he was ineffective in the eighth.  That’s applying results to a probability question.

Girardi would have been better off with Joba or Hughes starting the inning with Marte or Coke and another right-hander in the pen.  If you’re willing to mix and match in the midst of en extra inning tie game, there’s little reason not to do it with a two run lead in the seventh.  If the pitcher that starts the inning is effective, you can sit the guys in the pen.  Otherwise, you’re at least ready to mix and match and try to put out some fires.

Instead, they started the inning with two runners on quickly, both of whom scored, and Hughes was left out there with less than his best stuff to give up the lead.  Mariano could have gone more than an inning, so all you had to do was get through the seventh with the lead in tact.

And, considering David Robertson’s success in high leverage situations these playoffs (and Joba’s lack of success), why wasn’t he anywhere near the seventh or eighth innings?  Girardi likes to call it a bullpen by committee, but those are just words.  The pitchers were supposed to fill their roles last night, whether effective or not, and it didn’t work.

◊ It’s pretty easy to jump on Nick Swisher at this point. The guy has looked like a lost puppy at the plate.  I will give Girardi credit for this quote after the game about Swish:

“Guys are going to struggle during the course of the season and you just don’t give up on a guy if he is struggling because the flip side of that is they are due to get hot.  We feel good about Swish.”

That’s a reasonable approach.  Nobody has been calling for Teixeira’s head and he went 2 for 5 with 3 RBI last night.  Swisher ain’t Teixeira but he’s also not batting third.  If he gets his walks like he’s capable of and a few hits, he’ll be fine.  The alternative is Brett Gardner who has trouble getting the ball out of the infield.

(H/T to Rob Neyer for the quote)

◊ Pinch running for ARod in the bottom of the ninth was almost as laughable as pulling Damon in the bottom of the 10th in game three and losing the DH.  Girardi was hedging a bet that Guzman’s possible extra little bit of speed would be the difference if Matsui hit a ball in the gap.

Of course, Matsui didn’t hit a ball into the gap.  He walked, pushing Guzman to second.  Then Cano was plunked, pushing Guzman to third.  And suddenly, with two outs, speed wasn’t an issue.  If Swisher had actually walked and the game continued into extra innings (again), the Yankee lineup would have looked pretty fearsome with Jerry Hairston, Jr. batting cleanup.

Girardi’s reasoning is that you do everything you can to tie the game at that point.  And I agree with that logic when applied properly.  You should also do everything you can to win a game in late innings but that hasn’t had much of an effect on Girardi’s illogical bullpen decisions.

The difference in speed between Guzman and ARod is probably negligible at this point.  ARod seems to be pretty healthy on his hip, to the point where the proposed followup surgery may not be necessary anymore.  He’s certainly done his share of running at this stage.

Matsui had 21 doubles and 1 triple in 526 plate appearances this year.  That means there was a 4% chance of Matsui hitting a double or triple into the gap (for his career it is a 5.4 % chance.)  Matsui also has 28 home runs this year which obviously outnumber his doubles and triples.

◊ Melky Cabrera is actually heating up a bit and Robinson Cano got a rare two out hit with runners in scoring position.  It goes without saying that when the bottom of the order is hitting well, it’s a lot easier to win games.

◊ There was some debate on Twitter last night after the game about CC’s next start.  The forecast calls for rain on Saturday in New York, which could possibly push game six back to Sunday.  That would mean Sabathia, currently scheduled for a possible game 7, could pitch game six on full rest.

I doesn’t make any sense, however.  Pettitte is capable of pitching an effective game 6 and if the Yankees win, CC would be available for game one of the World Series.  If CC were to lose game 6, Pettitte would still be needed for game 7.  Either way, one of those two guys has to step up.  I think we all can agree that if it comes down to one game to continue the season, CC Sabathia should be on the mound.

◊ Both Hughes and Joba are struggling in the postseason. With Joba, it’s somewhat expected at this point.  He’s looked decent at times, as has Hughes, but for the most part Joba is the same confusing pitcher he has been for most of the season.

Hughes, though, has been somewhat of a mystery.  He was averaging almost 96 MPH on his fastball last night, which is about what he was throwing in game three.  The pitch wasn’t breaking, though, much less than game three and the Angels were sitting on it.  His curve remained sharp, but for some reason he and Posada didn’t throw it again to Vlad despite how bad Guerrero looked on the pitch.

One has to wonder if the workload of this season has caught up to Hughes.  He isn’t grossly past his previous totals but he is coming off a shortened 2008 season.  Hughes has never worked in a relief role before which usually means throwing harder over less innings than a starting pitcher.  Relief pitching is a volatile trade, evidenced by the lack of consistency most relievers experience from season to season.  It may be that the extra exertion Hughes has applied coming out of the pen has started to wear him down a bit.

Girardi might be better off keeping Hughes to one inning outings through the rest of the playoffs.  When Girardi replaced Marte with Coke in the bottom of the eighth in game three, his reasoning was that he didn’t want Marte warming up twice given his injury over the summer.  In that same game, Hughes warmed up three times.  Should that be a big deal?  Probably not as his workload hasn’t been that tough over the last week.

When you see his fastball flatten out like it did last night, you start to wonder, though.  Hughes faced eight batters across three innings in game three.  Since Hughes became a reliever at the beginning of June, he has averaged 4.4 batters per appearance and only once did it extend over more than two innings.  That was June 10th against the Red Sox, when Hughes was still stretched out to be a starter.

It’s the playoffs and all hands are on deck.  That’s fine as long as Girardi is paying attention.  He’s shifted the workload for his second most valuable reliever and the results may not be the same.

◊ Finally, if you haven’t stopped by our live chats during the game, come on by. It’s been a lot of fun.  Last night, ESPN’s Rob Neyer graciously stopped in to take a few questions from the crowd during the game.  We’ll be doing it (hopefully) every game the Yankees play in the postseason and are hoping to get a few more guests.