The Bronx View

Looks like the only thing left bringing DH/1B Nick Johnson back to New York is the dotting of the I’s.  The $5.5 million price tag has left many wondering why the accident prone Johnson and not the gimpy-legged Matsui?

Jason over at IIATMS led the charge:

Nick Johnson has the potential to thrive hitting in the #2 spot behind Jeter, ahead of Teixeira and ARod. Sure, he’s not gonna run, but then again, Damon batted #2 in 2009 and stole only 12 bases. Was that because of Damon or because Girardi didn’t want to run himself out of an inning with the horses up behind Damon?

Johnson, assuming he can remain healthy, will be a nice fit for this team.  He doesn’t have to play every game.  Will he quickly adjust to playing only half the game, and after that, only 4-5 times a week instead of 6-7?

Like I said up top: I like Nick. I like what he could bring this team.  I just don’t get why, if Cashman wanted a “pure” DH, he didn’t re-sign the one he had for the last seven years, the consummate professional, the one who is the reigning World Series MVP.

Jason and I tweeted back and forth a bit about this last night and our opinions are actually closer on the subject than they’re about to appear.

There’s a few X factors here that we are not aware of, the biggest being Matsui’s desire to play the outfield at least part time.  The Los Angeles California Angels of Anaheim California rather unwisely think that they may be better off if Matsui could play the outfield a few days a week:

Matsui played all 142 of his games last season at designated hitter, and though Scioscia would prefer to rotate his other three outfielders — Torii Hunter, Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera — through the DH spot and give Matsui an occasional start in left field, he will not force the issue.

“It’s much more important for us to have him in the lineup swinging the bat every day rather than forcing him to play the outfield,” Scioscia said. “That being said, it would make us deeper if he could play the outfield two or three times a week.”

Some sources have said that “logic” was part of the reason Matsui jumped at the Angels offer.  Brian Cashman may have been considering Matsui but, given the fact that Matsui never touched a glove in 2009, it was pretty apparent his only role would be that of designated hitter.

Given the Yankees needs and Matsui’s wants, the Yankees may not have been a match to re-sign Hideki at this stage.

Comparing Matsui and Nick Johnson head to head, we find these numbers:

And their career splits:

The big question mark with both players is health.  The Yankees had to drain Matsui’s knees a few times last year even though he never played the field.  Nick the Stick has been an injury magnet for most of his career, the zenith being a broken leg at the end of the 2006 season that forced him to sit out 2007.

If I were a gambling man, I’d have to bet on the guy who is five years younger when it comes to health risk.  The Yankees have been closer to Matsui than anybody since he entered the majors and know more about the day to day pain and treatment his ailing legs needed.  They obviously have some doubts about whether Matsui could sustain his 2009 performance for another season.

Likewise, Matsui broke 140+ games for only the second time in four years in 2009, most likely due to the fact that he wasn’t playing the field.  The Yankees must hope that the same tactic as applied to Nick Johnson will improve his durability over the course of the season.

Looking at the numbers above, the big discrepancies between the two players lay in on-base percentage and slugging percentage.  Nick has always been an on-base machine.  Matsui has put up good OBP numbers while slugging much better than Johnson.

Again, we look at these numbers through the health microscope.  If Matsui does take a sharp decline in 2010, his power will go right along with it.  Johnson is 31 this year and figures to have at least a couple of effective seasons left in him.  Chances are, his OBP will maintain.  His SLG has never been great and could see a boost from the new Yankee Stadium.  If it stays where it is, the Yankees will still be happy to collect his walks.

Of the two players, then, Johnson is probably the lower risk.  The five year age difference alone is a big sticking point, one that could lead Matsui to other health issues besides just his knees.

The question remains: where does Johnson fit on this team?

There has been a lot of talk about Johnson being the #2 hitter behind Jeter.  That’s a possibility.  His OBP certainly makes him a guy you would like hitting in from of Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez.  That would push newly acquired Curtis Granderson toward the back of the lineup, possibly dropping into the two spot when Johnson isn’t playing.  Chances are, the Yankees aren’t looking at Johnson to play 145 games this year as they want to get more rest for Jorge Posada and others while keeping their bats in the lineup.

The reaction to these moves, picking up Granderson and Johnson, has left some Yankee fans a little befuddled, thinking their team has taken a step backwards.

Well, I think the case can be made that Johnson proves a better risk for this season than Matsui and possibly shows a bit of upside if the new stadium helps his swing.  What about the trade-off of Damon for Granderson?

Another chart, this one Damon and Grandersons last three years:

It’s worth noting that Granderson put up these numbers as a centerfielder with above average UZR numbers over three years while Damon posted average to bad UZR numbers in left field.*

* Damon’s 2007 and 2008 seasons showed positive UZR ratings in left but only covered a combined 119 games over the two seasons.  His first full season in left, 2009, Damon posted a -9.2 UZR and -12.1 UZR/150.

With these two moves, the Yankees have improved their lineup but they’ve also improved their defense, a concept that has been lost in some of the talk.  Last season, the Yankees didn’t feature the greatest outfield with Nick Swisher in right, Melky Cabrera in center, nad Johnny Damon in left.  Melky and Swish are both adequate, but Damon was horrible.  By shifting Melky and Gardner to left and depositing Granderson in center, their defense should benefit greatly which only adds to the upgrade in offense.

Everyone says this is the end of Johnny Damon in New York and that’s probably true.  It isn’t out of the realm of possibility that Damon could still return under the right terms.  I don’t understand speculation that Matt Holliday and Jason Bay are still possibilities and not Damon.  I find Damon to be a much better risk at two years around $20 million than four years for Bay or possibly six for Holliday.  Holliday is a very good player with very good defense, but his stats while playing at Coors Field were greatly inflated.

Here’s Holliday’s home and road splits during his tenure in Colorado:

Holliday’s road numbers steadily improved towards the end of his stay in Colorado, but look at that BAbip!  That type of consistency goes a bit beyond luck and seems to indicate that Holliday hits the ball hard. Can that type of high BAbip continue?  It has to this point but if it dropped anywhere close to .300, his numbers would take a steep hit.  I don’t know that Holliday warrants the supposed six years he’s hoping to get.

Could the Yankees benefit from Matt Holliday?  Of course they could.  But right now, the Yankees have built a lineup that is probably better than last year’s while improving their outfield defense.  That team scored 915 runs, took the AL East by 8 games and won the World Series.  Adding Holliday is probably not necessary and a bit greedy.

The Boston Herald reports on the Red Sox two-year pact with Mike Cameron, while mentioning that Yanks have apparently been in touch with Jason Bay:

The Red Sox last night agreed to terms with Cameron on a two-year deal, according to a source with knowledge of the negotiations. Multiple reports pegged the deal at roughly $15.5 million…

…Bay expects to make a final decision in the next couple of days, with the Mets, Angels and Mariners the front-runners for his services. However, lurking in the weeds are Yankees, who have reached out to Bay’s representatives to express their interest, the source said.
The Yankees are not believed to have made an offer, and it was unclear last night exactly how strong their interest is, but it goes without saying that in matters of free agency, they never can be discounted.

First, on the Cameron signing – it’s a nice move.  But the Red Sox have yet to (publicly) commit to playing Cameron in center field, and the general belief is that he’ll slide over to left field so Jacoby Ellsbury can remain in center.  What’s the difference between Cameron in center and Cameron in left?  Night and day.

In the past two seasons, Cameron has posted UZR numbers of 11.3 and 10 for the Brewers.  UZR came into fashion in 2002, and since then, Cameron has consistently been among the Major League leaders in that category, including 3rd in the Majors last year – barely behind BJ Upton, but well behind Franklin Gutierrez, who appears to be a once-in-a-generation defensive outfielder.  Compare this to Tacoby Bellsbury, whose UZR last year was a Major League-worst -18.6, and it would be utterly mind-boggling to see Cameron switch positions to accommodate such a horrific fielder.  If the Sox decision makers are smart – and they are – they’ll take a look at the numbers and do the right thing.  But should they somehow fail to do so, and decide to stick with the kid in center, they would severely damage Cameron’s value to the team.

Cameron has posted an OBP over .360 once – that was in 2000 – and has never slugged over .500 despite averaging 23 HR per season.  While he posts terrific offensive slash lines for a CF, particularly one with his defensive gifts (career .250/.340/.448), he doesn’t hit like a corner outfielder.  If the Sox were chasing offense, there were much better players to be had on the FA market or available through trade.

On to the Bay/Yankees rumors – I don’t buy it.  The Yankees are routinely tied to any and all free agents because of their financial clout, but to me, Bay isn’t a great buy for the Yankees because he doesn’t fit Cashman’s recent MO. He isn’t particularly young (31) and he isn’t particularly athletic or solid defensively.  I think Cashman is instead taking the chance that Carl Crawford will become a free agent following the 2010 season.  It’s the same gamble he took in not trading for Johan Santana and instead waiting for CC Sabathia.  The Yanks overwhelmed CC with cash last offseason and he became the team’s true ace en route to a World Championship.  A similar scenario could unfold next offseason with Crawford, who would become, along with Cano, Granderson, Teixeira, and Sabathia, a long-term franchise cornerstone with the speed, defense, youth, and athleticism the Yankees crave.   I don’t see Cashman wanting to commit to the (likely) 5 years it would take to land Jason Bay, particularly since he’s viewed as a defensive liability – the type of player the Yankees already have in spades.

Another possibility is that the Yankees view Jesus Montero as a left fielder in the long term.  Montero isn’t too far away from being ML-ready.  Maybe the Yankees are willing to absorb a year of Melky Cabrera in left field if they think Montero will be ready to take over in a year.  Granted, Jesus has never played anywhere but C, and the Yankees are loathe to move him off the position despite the fact that most scouts agree he can’t play it well.  But the fact remains that the Yankees have some future options in left field, and signing an older, big money FA to fill the spot for 5 years seems opposed to the type of team that Cashman hopes to build in the Bronx.

Now that Curtis Granderson is a Yankee, Brett Gardner’s name is popping up.  ESPN’s Trade Rumors:

The Curtis Granderson deal seems to have made Brett Gardner a more valuable commodity.

Gardner became expendable in New York once Granderson was acquired in a three-team deal, and the latest team to make an inquiry is the Chicago White Sox. The Sun-Times says today that White Sox GM Ken Williams views Gardner as a reasonably-priced option in center field.

Competition for Gardner could come from another team in the AL Central. ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark tweeted Wednesday night that the Kansas City Royals have inquired about Gardner.

The Royals are in the market for a center fielder since free agent Coco Crisp is expected to sign elsewhere.

Sure, Gardner is a reasonably priced option for the White Sox and Kansas City.  His service time is low which makes him cheap and under team for control (I believe) for another two years.

As a matter of fact, he’s just the type of player that the Yankees could use as a backup outfielder.  Jamie Hoffman, recently acquired via the Nats from the Dodgers in the rule 5 draft will also be vying for that role once he’s completed his subterfuge against Johnny Damon.

It’s nice that teams are looking at Gardner but my question is, if the White Sox think he can start in centerfield, why would the Yankees not want him as backup?  In my mind, Melky Cabrera is the one the Yankees should be shopping.

Cabrera is a year older than Gardner but has never shown the type of plate discipline that Gardner has in the minors.  Gardner is the superior centerfielder and obviously has the better speed of the two, despite Gardner’s inability to actually utilize that speed in the playoffs.

Also, Gardner will be cheaper for longer.  That may sound like a silly argument for the Yankees, but they need cheap young talent just like everyone else.  Consider 2009, where the Yankees ranked 25th out of 30 clubs in percentage of their payroll devoted to their bullpen.  Consider also that of that $22.5 million, $15 million of it was devoted to Mariano Rivera. The Cincinnati Reds, with a $71.5 million payroll, spent $20.8 million on their bullpen, just $1.7 million less than the Yankees, whose payroll was almost three times that of the Reds ($206.8 million versus $71.5 million).

* As a side note, the Yankees also ranked 28th in percentage of salary devoted to pitching even with the big money devoted to CC Sabathia and AJ Burnett.  The entire chart as provided by Cot’s Baseball Contracts looks like this:

Clearly, the Yankees have found some benefit to going cheaper in their bullpen, utilizing the arms within their own system, or picking up guys like Brian Bruney off the scrap heap to provide innings when needed.  The rest of the league seems to be picking up on this.  Well, seems to, anyway.

The point is, even with an inflated budget, you have to find the most appropriate places within your roster to apply cheap, young talent.  For the Yankees, that place has been the bullpen and the bench.  The bench will get a bit cheaper this year when Francisco Cervelli likely takes over the backup catcher position from Jose Molina.  It’s possible that Ramiro Pena could be a backup infielder as well depending on what the front office feels they can get out of Pena in 2010 and beyond.

Given the Brett Gardner has proven at least equally valuable as Melky Cabrera, has more time under team control and is a better defensive outfielder, there’s little reason to trade him over Cabrera.  The return for Gardner may be a little better, but we’re talking a negligible difference in return, one that certainly can be outweighed by the usefulness and flexibility of Gardner.

The only major difference between the two players is that Gardner is left-handed while Melky is a switch hitter.  Both hitters hit worse against lefties which elevated neither over the other when considering a platoon partner with Curtis Granderson.

A day after the Brian Bruney shocker, the Yankees made an even bigger deal today (if you can believe it): they acquired CF Curtis Granderson in a three-way trade with the Tigers and Diamondbacks.  The Yankees lose highly-touted CF prospect Austin Jackson and lefty reliever Phil Coke to Detroit, along with SP Ian Kennedy to Arizona.

My gut reaction to this trade at first: disgust.  The plan I had drawn up in my head had the Yankees signing Mike Cameron for a year, giving AJax a bit more time in AAA to cut down on his strikeouts and develop his power (I realize those two things are generally mutually exclusive – perhaps this was a motivating factor for Cashman making Jackson available in the first place).  After sifting through the numbers for a while, however, I’m quite a bit more bullish on this deal.  I’m in the camp that hates to see good, homegrown prospects go, but when you can acquire an impact player at a key defensive position on the right side of 30, sometimes you bite the bullet and make the deal.  Ultimately my only complaint is that it took prospects to fill a hole when cash might have sufficed.

For an impact-type player, Granderson does have his share of blind spots.  He’s never been able to raise his game to even below-average against left-handed pitchers; .210/.270/.344 for his career, and he’s not even trending upwards.  In 2009 he hit just .183/.245/.239 (!), an appalling .484 OPS.  He’s in desperate need of a platoon partner, but pairing his career line against righties (.292/.367/.528) with Melky’s career line against lefties (.255/.325/.355) will give the Yankees plenty of offensive production in 2010 from a position that was a year-long black hole in a championship 2009 season.

While Granderson’s struggles against lefties have been well-documented, he generally has a good defensive reputation from Tigers-watchers.  But the metrics aren’t in total agreement.  He had very, very solid years in center in 2006-2007, posting UZR numbers of 13.7 and 14.2, respectively.  However, 2008 was a complete nosedive – a -8.9 UZR, despite making fewer errors than in 2007.  Present that to anyone who claims fielding percentage is the be-all end-all in defensive evaluation.

Granderson rebounded somewhat in 2009 to post a 1.6 UZR, still far below the sensational numbers he’d put up in his first 2 full seasons. This number placed him 8th out of 18 qualifying center fielders.  For comparison’s sake, UZR thinks Brett Gardner (7.2) is far and away a better defender, while Melky is almost exactly even with Granderson (1.4).  Curtis obviously provides far, far more value with the bat than either of those two, making him an easy upgrade all things considered.  All signs point to Granderson being solidly average to slightly above-average with the glove, but the signs of defensive decline are frustrating for a player of his age and speed.

Granderson’s sensational 2007 looks more and more like an outlier with each passing year.  He finished 10th in MVP voting by putting up a .302/.361/.552 line, with 84 extra-base hits and 26 SB against just 1 CS.  In the two intervening years, Curtis has failed to post an OPS over .858 or a SLG over .494.  Those numbers from a 1B spell trouble; when you consider Granderson plays CF acceptably, it’s hard to nitpick.  In fact, Granderson walked 52 times in 2007, but in the next two seasons walked 71 and 72 times, respectively, a very positive trend for a player who likely slots in as a 2-hole hitter for the Yanks.

He was also victimized in 2009 by a BABIP (Batting Average On Balls In Play) of .275, well below his career average of .321.  In his breakout ‘07 campaign, he hit .360 on balls in play, making some regression completely understandable.  His bad luck led to a .249 BA and .327 OBP in ‘09.  If Granderson’s luck improves in ‘10 and he hits his career average of .272 while maintaining his walk rate, you’re looking at an OBP around .350, which is more than acceptable for a player with his power.  In addition, his line drive percentage of 21% was right in line with his career norms, further indicating bad luck.  He’s a good bet to improve on his 2009 season.

Continuing with the positives, Granderson posted the best AB to HR ratio for any full season in his career, reaching 30 HR for the first time.  He posted his highest fly ball percentage as well – 49.3%, well up from the 40.7% he hit in 2008.  For a player with Granderson’s raw speed, you might consider this a negative trend.  But considering the park he’s moving to as a left-handed hitter, it’s not unreasonable to suggest that he could repeat if not exceed his home run total from 2009.

On a completely intangible positive note, the Yankees got even more likable.   Granderson blogs for ESPN and has done some TV work for the MLB Network, and he always comes across as very charismatic and personable.  So many observers noted the improvement in the Yankees’ team chemistry this season.  Whether or not there’s a cause and effect between that improvement and winning a championship is open for debate – I personally think it had more to do with the Yankees’ hoarding of awesome baseball players – but Granderson should fit nicely into the clubhouse culture and quickly become a fan favorite.

As for the players lost: obviously, trading Jackson hurts the most.  Jackson excelled in the low-minors, had a nice debut in AAA last season, and appeared on track to become the Yankees’ everyday CF in either 2010 or 2011.  He was exactly the type of player many Yankees fans pined for during the interminable (for us) 9 year championship drought – young, cheap, homegrown, fast, athletic, fundamentally solid.  Promoting from within became the antidote to signing old, past their prime, injury prone free agents, a decision-making flaw that hamstrung the team – financially and otherwise – for years.

But I think that Yankee fans, myself included, tend to overrate their prospects, and we’re all somewhat guilty of doing so with AJax.  He displayed very little power, hitting 4 HR in AAA last year and never hitting more than 10 in any minor league season.  Along with those 4 HR came 123 Ks in 557 plate appearances, and if Austin lacked power and the ability to make consistent contact in Scranton, he more than likely wasn’t going to find it in the American League East, at least not any time soon.  The Yankees can’t afford to be ultra-patient with a player like Jackson, who at times was referred to as an athlete learning to play baseball.  Still, Jackson retains a promising mix of speed and above-average defense, and has youth and the upside to develop average power down the road.  I hope he finds success with the Tigers, but something tells me it won’t be in 2010.

As for Phil Coke, let’s face it: championship goodwill aside, he’s a fungible left-handed reliever who is fairly easily replaced on the Yankees roster.  They have Mike Dunn waiting in the wings, and reportedly have their eye on free agent strikeout machine Mike Gonzalez.  Coke burst onto the scene with an impressive September callup in 2008, before making the team out of spring training in ‘09 and keeping his spot all the way through the World Series.  He pitched effectively, as lefties hit just .195/.218/.366 against him.  Still, considering the volatility of reliever performance, he likely won’t be missed.

Ian Kennedy fell out of favor with the Yankees in 2008 when he made the starting rotation, pitched terribly, was demoted, eventually recalled, pitched terribly again, then capped a magical year off by saying dumb things to a group of reporters in Anaheim.  Kennedy threw well in AAA in 2009, before surgery to remove an aneurysm cost him most of the year.  He came all the way back to the majors, appearing in a late season game in relief, then reported to the Arizona Fall League and pitched well enough there to merit a look in 2010.  A pitcher with Kennedy’s raw stuff – or more accurately, lack thereof – was probably never going to thrive in the AL East without having exceptional command, which Kennedy has not shown at the highest level.  I think his minor league success will eventually translate into some good seasons at the back of an NL West rotation, however, so Arizona should have a serviceable guy to throw behind their big 3 of Webb, Haren, and now Edwin Jackson.

For those who might argue that Austin Jackson should have been saved for a deal involving Roy Halladay: dream on.  Vernon Wells has the worst, most unmovable contract in Major League Baseball; short of shifting him to an outfield corner, where his already anemic bat would play even worse, the Blue Jays really had no need for a young CF that is considered nearly Major League ready.  If the Yankees were in the Halladay running yesterday, they still are today.  Jesus Montero would probably have to be the centerpiece of that deal, with Joba and Phil Hughes as the supporting cast.

In summation, the Yankees will open 2010 with their best overall center fielder since Bernie Williams shuffled off this mortal coil around the start of 2003.  Cashman has shown no willingness to stay complacent even after winning a World Championship, an encouraging sign for Yankees fans with dreams of a repeat performance.  While many Yankees homers such as myself may shudder at giving up the team’s second-best prospect in the deal, such is the cost of remaining competitive every year.  If that results in another World Championship, it’s a price I’d gladly pay.

No, this isn’t a rant trying to advocate Edgar Martinez for the Hall of Fame.

The scuttlebutt around the New York Yankees since the end of the season has focused squarely on the futures of Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon.  It’s interesting, almost comical really, to think that there is any question about whether the Yankees should pay for the continued services of these aging players.  I, myself, was advocating the quick jettison of both of them previous to the 2008 season and, while Damon happily proved me wrong, Matsui suffered knee problems that limited him to 93 games.

The problem with both players is that they’re old by baseball standards.  Both men will be aged 36 for the 2010 season, neither has the legs nor the arm to be effective in the outfield, and both carry the possibility of receiving multi-year offers from other teams.

At least, that’s how it’s been perceived in the past.  Last winter opened many eyes around baseball as players and teams alike tried to navigated the turbulent waters surrounding arbitration.  The Yankees were widely questioned for not offering Bobby Abreu arbitration, which would have given them another first round pick should he sign with another team.  As the market shook out and Abreu’s value plummeted, the Yankees began to look smarter and smarter for not leaving Abreu open to a $15 million arbitration award when the market earned him just a one year contract at $5 million.

It shouldn’t be that shocking, then, that the Yankees have repeated this approach, deciding not to offer arbitration to Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui, and Andy Pettitte.  In Matsui’s case, the decision was a no brainer: Matsui is neither a type A or B free agent, leaving the Yankees no compensation should he sign elsewhere.  The better gamble is to risk signing him under agreeable terms than to leave the dollars to a third party.

Andy Pettitte is just Andy Pettitte.  The pattern has been established that Pettitte will deliberate and waffle over whether he wants to play, claim it’s not about the money, complain about the money, then sign for less guaranteed than he did the previous year.  Last winter, it worked out for everyone as Pettitte signed for a guaranteed $5 million after having arm problems down the stretch, but reach almost of his $5 million in incentives, reaching the $10 million price tag he asked for in the first place.

Damon, however, is a type A free agent coming off the best season of his career with a salary of $13 million.  A quick read of the market, even by Scott Boras, could determine that Damon stands little chance of matching $13 million next season and certainly not for multiple seasons.  An arbitration hearing could earn Damon a raise, possibly bringing him to $14 or $15 million which would be well above market value and even above his theoretical value for the 2009 season.

The question that remains is whether the Yankees should sign Matsui and/or Damon or none of the above.  The theory floated out there in September argued that the Yankees couldn’t possibly carry both players again.  Matsui has no ability to t play the outfield anymore and Damon is such a bad outfielder that he probably shouldn’t play the outfield anymore.  Essentially, they cancel each other out as being older, poor fielding players on the cusp of decline, exactly the kind of player you don’t need two of on your roster.

This theory has only been bolstered by another concept: the designated hitter by committee.  As the Yankees start to get a bit older, especially in the case of catcher Jorge Posada and to a lesser degree Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez, the call has come for more rest.  To keep their bats in the lineup, one of the elders could get a half day off and DH rather than ride the bench.  Since the DH role would be filled mostly by position players, the theory goes, there would be little need for a player like Hideki Matsui.

This is a ridiculously flawed concept to me.  From a sheer strategical standpoint, it makes little sense to have Jorge Posada DH while the backup catcher is behind the plate, unless you carry a third catcher.  That seems like a waste of a roster spot for the small percentage of games that Posada would actually DH, assuming that he will have off days where he doesn’t hit.

From a mathematical standpoint, the amount of needed days off by those players does not amount to a full-time designated hitter.

Alex Rodriguez missed the first 28 games last season and finished the year having played in 124 games.  That means outside of his time on the DL, ARod missed 10 games.  And remember, he missed ten games after having hip surgery that was supposed to require consistent rest throughout the season, rest he rarely took.  Assuming a healthier ARod for 2010, it’s reasonable to think he will play in roughly 145-150 games.

Jorge Posada missed 22 games in May of 2009 with leg problems.  He went on to catch 96 games, which means he may have caught another 16 games had he stayed healthy.  Let’s say Posada would have caught 112 games, leaving 50 to be accounted for.

Derek Jeter played 153 games in 2009.  He played 150 in 2008 and 156 in 2007.  In fact, he’s averaged 151 games a season since becoming a full-time player.  If Derek Jeter is healthy in 2010, I’d be willing to bet he’s going to play at least 150 games again.

Between these three players, we’ve found about 79 games that we can reasonably expect them not to be playing the field and possibly slot into the designated hitter’s role.  That leaves 83 games to account for, just over half a season.

Filling those 83 games at DH requires one of two solutions: drop a bench player into the DH slot or put that bench player in the field and put a position player at DH.  The Yankees bench in 2009, not including Hideki Matsui, had a .305 on-base percentage.  They had a .364 slugging percentage.

Hideki Matsui had a .367 on-base percentage and a .509 slugging percentage.  Despite being a left-hander, Matsui posted great numbers against lefties:

It may seem unreasonable to expect Matsui to hit as well against lefties in 2010 but considering his low BAbip, there is every reason to think he will not suffer a big drop off.  There is the outside possibility he could hit even better.

The difference in offense between Hideki Matsui and the Yankee bench in 2009 is considerable.  If the Yankees do not re-sign Matsui for 2010, where do they pick up that offense?  Where are the Yankees going to find a power hitting backup catcher or infielder that can replicate the type of offense that Matsui has provided?

Obviously, they’re not because any player providing that type of offense at those positions won’t be riding the pines while making backup wages.

Given the caliber of the Yankees lineup, residing in the American League where pinch hitting has less need, the Yankees shouldn’t be wasting a position devoted solely to hitting on backup players.  By not re-signing Matsui, the Yankees would be conceding at least one spot in their lineup each game, whether it be to rest ARod and play a Jerry Hairston, Jr. type or their everyday lineup which likely wouldn’t have a league average or above bat at designated hitter.

These leads to the inevitable question about who should be re-signed, Matsui or Damon.  In my mind, I think there is room for both given short term contracts.  I wouldn’t want to sign either player for more than two years, preferably a year with an option if possible.  The Yankees could live with Damon’s defense in left for another season rather than go out and overpay for a guy like Matt Holliday.  Holliday is good, but I think he will be overpaid with too many years for a guy turning 30.  The Yankees have Austin Jackson possibly coming up by 2011, which could solidify centerfield and possibly move Melky to right.  I don’t think Melky is the long-term option there, but it would give the Yankees another season to pinpoint how they can buildup their outfield.

Committing short term to two players who should perform about their career average for the next season makes sense given that there are few outfielders available that are both good at the plate and with the glove.

ESPN’s Rumor Central highlights the latest news on Roy Halladay:

At the just-concluded general managers meetings, Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos likely heard plenty of opinions on what to do with Roy Halladay.

If the Jays decide to move Halladay, Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News says it could result in a bidding war between (who else?) the New York Yankees and Boston Red Sox. Feinsand adds that team president Paul Beeston is unsure as to whether the team should trade Halladay.

According to SI’s Jon Heyman, Anthopolous has “no great aversion” to trading Halladay to another club in the AL East.

Of course the Blue Jays should trade Roy Halladay.  The fact that he wasn’t traded over the summer was a gross misjudgment on the part of for GM JP Ricciardi.

The Jays new GM Alex Anthopoulos seems to have a better perspective on this and, truthfully, it’s easier for him to tear down the walls and build them back up again.  He’s the new guy, brought in to right the wrongs and failures of the previous administration.  His first order of business should be to get as much value from free agents to be on his roster as possible.

Halladay fits that bill nicely.

As far as how this impacts the Yankees, there are a few things to consider.  As Tom K broke down for us recently, the Yankees rotation only has two spots definitely filled at the moment: Sabathia and Burnett.  I assume that Joba Chamberlain will again get a spot in the rotation next year, as will Phil Hughes, and I agree with both those choices.

The swing guys here are Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang.

Wang has been told by Dr. James Andrews that he can start throwing in December with a possible return to the rotation in late April or early May.  This is assuming that the Yankees make an effort to keep Wang.  The scuttlebutt has been that they may not offer him arbitration, non-tender him, and then offer him a reduced contract with incentives.  Most of that may depend on what they can glean from his medical reports and the actual condition of his arm.

Andy Pettitte has played the Roger Clemens Retirement Game for the last couple of seasons.  From his mouth, he hopes to decide sooner than later this winter, but that may also depend on how much guaranteed money the Yankees want to give him after “low-balling” him with $5 million plus incentives last winter.  Pettitte reached most of those incentives and got the $10 million he wanted, but the negotiations were long and tedious.

If the Yankees were to trade for Halladay, it would have to come at the expense of a pitcher.  Chances are, that pitcher would be Hughes or Joba, but probably not both if the Yankees have their way.  I can see the Yankees being more open to trading Joba at this stage, given what appear to be head problems and an inability to keep his mechanics consistent.  If they are starting to believe that the bullpen may be his future, they may be smart to get more value for him as a perceived starter now.

I don’t think Hughes is touchable at this stage.

The bigger question is whether Halladay is worth trading for.  Any package would have to include Hughes or Joba, possibly Austin Jackson and Austin Romaine or Jesus Montero.  I don’t know that the Yankees are that worried about their starting pitching to give up that kind of package. I know I wouldn’t.

If it means keeping him away from the Red Sox, though, all bets could be off.

The Bronx View has a special section called The Bullpen which features writers who may not contribute on a daily or weekly basis but have a great perspective on the New York Yankees and Major League Baseball.

This week, Tom K. contributes his thoughts about the future of the Yankees starting rotation.

We hear a lot nowadays about big market teams, middle market teams, little market teams…and of course, the Yankees.     There are a lot of things these franchises have in common; a lot of things they don’t have in common.   But one of the big things they do have in common is this:  Once the winter begins, they all start to wonder about who their five starters will be when next spring comes around.

The Yankees are no different.   As of this moment (and it’s obviously very early), the Yankees have two of their five starting spots secured:  CC Sabathia & AJ Burnett.   That’s obviously not a bad start – one of the biggest horses in the game & an enigmatic, but good,  power  pitcher to back him up.      So although it is possible that AJ Burnett will blow out his shoulder sometime between now & next April, let’s just say these two guys are set.    This way, we can look at who will fill slots 3-5.

Obviously, the first pitcher who probably comes to mind is Andy Pettitte.   Pettitte has become the Yankees’ (more expensive) version of Tim Wakefield.  A pitcher who can probably get a bit of a bidding war going for his services, but only wants to pitch in one place.   If it doesn’t work out, he’ll go home.    And of course, there is always the possibility that he’ll retire.  Why not?  He’s won five rings.  He had a very strong regular season, followed by a 4-0 postseason.    Like Mike Mussina before him, some of the career milestones he may consider worthwhile may be too far away for him to want to try to get to.   (He needs 21 wins to get to 250, which is two healthy seasons).      And, unless he has been spending money left and right, a one -year, $10-$12M deal or whatever isn’t exactly something he needs to have.    Of course, these are all reasons he may retire.  The big reason why he won’t is because, like most athletes who don’t retire, he may just not be ready to leave the game just yet.   Regardless, the Yankees may not get a final answer from him for a little while at least.

Two other names you will hear are linked together – Joba Chamberlain & Phil Hughes.    Chamberlain is coming off of an equally bizarre and unspectacular 2009 season.   Hughes has yet to put together a string of consistent major league starts – of course, he hasn’t had many opportunities to do that just yet.    Hughes would seem like a good breakout candidate for 2010 – his bullpen experience likely gained him a lot of confidence.   He has the mix of pitches to be successful – it’s just all about putting together the impressive package.    And there is the innings issue – because Hughes was turned into a short reliever in 2009, he’ll need to rebuild his innings in 2010.   Here’s hoping the Yankees learned from the Joba Chamberlain experience.    Yes, I am assuming Hughes will be a starter in 2010 – I see no reason why he shouldn’t be given that chance.

Chamberlain’s overall stat-line is not exactly terrible:  9-6 record, 4.75 ERA in 157.1 innings.   His strikeout rate was strong enough at 7.6.    He needs to tone down the walks a bit, and perhaps prevent a few extra HRs, but for a first full season, his numbers should fall into the “not bad” category.       The way he was handled, of course, is another story – “strange” would be putting it mildly.   Chamberlain came into spring training with the expectation of being the #5 starter – a guy the Yankees would try to coddle through 150 innings by giving extra rest, taking him out of games, etc.      For many reasons, that just didn’t happen:  Chien-Ming Wang went down early in the year, necessitating a bigger role out of Chamberlain.   Hughes came up to start, but was mostly ineffective (and moved out of the rotation for Wang upon his brief return).      CC-Burnett-Pettitte remained strong and were able to eat up a lot of early season innings, but the Yankees were short a #4 starter…and Joba was the guy they used to fill that role.   Hence, his innings started to pile up…leading the Yankees to do something that you probably haven’t seen before:   Pretty much starting over with Joba and turning August-September into a spring training routine.    Joba didn’t respond well to the new plan, and the Yankees lost their #4 starting option for October.    We won’t get into the whole 3-man rotation thing in the playoffs…but there has to be little doubt that some of it was necessitated by a lack of confidence in Joba.    So what does this mean for 2010?   That’s a big question for the Yankees to answer.     Joba wasn’t asked to throw 157 innings this year for the sake of throwing 70 out of the bullpen in 2010.  He was given the workload so he can throw over 200 innings in 2010.    It would seem rather silly to abandon the plan now…but, at the same time, will the Yankees want to defend their championship with two  young, still unproven starters in their 2010 Opening Day rotation?   We will find out.

Free agency doesn’t offer very much beyond John Lackey, a solid right-hander who is going to likely ask for AJ Burnett money…if not, more.  He is better than Burnett, afterall.    The problem is that, unlike Burnett, he may not have the Yankees in the bidding.  Would the Yankees throw another big contract at a starting pitcher this winter?  Nothing is impossible – but I doubt it.      I don’t think Cashman will have the same “We must get this guy” attitude that brought Teixiera into the mix in 2009.  And without that, I doubt the organization is going to want to spend that type of money on him.    They could roll the dice on guys like Rich Harden, Erik Bedard, and Ben Sheets, but it is probably best to not go anywhere near them for various reasons….most important of which is the fact that none of them can stay healthy.

In terms of in-house depth, the Yankees will not lack options.   They’ll have Alfredo Aceves under control, a guy who can start if needed (and stretched out properly).    I can see them hanging onto Chien-Ming Wang as a midseason replacement.     And I happen to like the talent of Chad Gaudin, who finds ways to miss bats without the most impressive of fastballs.    They can also decide to keep Sergio Mitre to see what happens once fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.    In the minors, Ian Kennedy should be back to 100% next season.  Zach McAllister, a solid though not elite prospect, will likely start the season in Scranton to provide additional depth to the big club as a middle reliever or emergency starter at some point in 2010.       A lot of these pitchers may not make you feel all that secure…but remember, we are talking DEPTH here, not candidates for the Opening Day rotation.

The Yankees may also spend tens of millions to get Cuban prospect Aroldis Chapman, a hard-throwing 22-year old left-hander who may just be the type of talent you simply can’t pass up on.   But for 2010, he’ll be in the minor leagues for whatever team signs him.

So, for now, the 2010 rotation could read:   Sabathia, Burnett, Pettitte, Chamberlain, Hughes…with a whole bunch of options lining up behind them.  I think a lot of people would feel secure if another veteran is added to that mix, but all that does is further stunt the development of either Chamberlain or Hughes.  It is a bit of a double-edged sword:  You want to win again, and a veteran pitcher is much more likely to help you do that than two youngsters.  But you also want these two pitchers to develop – and they can’t do that without being in the 2010 rotation.    Best case scenario from where I sit?   Chamberlain & Hughes start 2010 in the rotation – if one flounders, hopefully Wang will fully recover and take over.

It had all the makings of high drama.

Andy Pettitte, a homegrown pitcher, a man perennially on the verge of retirement, throwing on three days rest.

Pedro Martinez, a relic from another era when the Yankees seemed like they could do no wrong.

It felt like a game straight out of 1999, when the Yankees and Red Sox began to renew their century long rivalry atop the American League East.

Pedro’s socks were red, but the “B” on his cap had been replaced with a “P.”

It didn’t matter to the Yankee Stadium crowd.  When Pedro joined the Phillies over the summer, he brought more than seventeen seasons of major league experience.  He brought a reputation, an outspoken bravado, an ability to stir emotions in his opponents and their faithful that few could muster.

When Pedro took the mound against the Yankees in game six of the World Series last night, he brought more than the hopes of the Phanatics on his shoulders.  He brought the memories of playoffs past, of Grady Little and Roger Clemens, Don Zimmer, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter riding to hospital by his hand.  The arrogant smirk, the ridiculous comments, the inability to dominate his old division rival despite being one of the greatest pitchers of the last thirty years.

Pedro brought it all with him last night.  He had no choice.  The crowd would never let him forget.  Even within the confines of the new, quieter Yankee Stadium, the chants and howls from the last great Yankee dynasty returned, if only for four innings.

It was exhilarating and sad to see Pedro fail in such a big spot.  If you love the Yankees, you hate Pedro.  But at the very least, you respect him and what he has accomplished on the mound and you relish in the idea that, no matter how effective he was with the Red Sox, the Yankees could usually find a way to beat him.  That’s what made it fun.

Pedro had none of his old fire last night.  He struck out five which was considerable given that he allowed four runs.  His counterpart, Andy Pettitte, similarly struggled, but battled through until he ran out of gas.

It was a marquee match-up of old timers that was somehow overshadowed by yet another.

Hideki Matsui put up an offensive performance last night that can only be described as historical.  He tied a World Series record with six runs batted in, while placing himself behind only Lou Gehrig for second highest slugging percentage in a World Series.

The aging slugger, banished from the outfield by manager Joe Girardi because of his balky knees, took advantage of every opportunity, hitting a two run home run in the second, a two run single in the third, and a two run double in fifth.  Phillies manager Charlie Manuel brought in JA Happ, a lefty, to face Matsui in that fifth inning, blissfully unaware that Matsui has been destroying left-handed pitching this year.  Matsui mashed the ball off the right-centerfield wall, putting the Yankees up 7-1 and all but icing their 27th World Series title.

Andy Pettitte left during the sixth after a two run home run to the previously sleeping Ryan Howard made it 7-3.  Joba Chamberlain came in, throwing hard heat that was wild within the strike zone, eventually giving way to Damaso Marte, who struck out Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.

And then Mariano Rivera did what Mariano Rivera does.  Ballgame over.  World Series over.  Yankees win.

–

It’s been a funny season.

I’ve found my self enjoying this team more than I have in recent years.  Winning makes that easier, for sure, but the Yankees haven’t exactly been bad since their last World Series title in 2000.

No, this comes more from the players on this team.  There really isn’t a guy on the roster who I can look at with any dislike.

That used to be Alex Rodriguez.  I have always wanted ARod to do well because, well, he is a Yankee.  But there was always something about him that I didn’t like.  A lot of people picked up on it and felt the same way.  Some think it’s arrogance, others greed or awkwardness.  Something wasn’t right, wasn’t natural about ARod as a person and as a hitter.  He made this all the more confusing by alternating MVP seasons with an inability to perform in big situations.

Ironically, all of that seemed to change when Alex admitted his use of steroids at the start of spring training.  Suddenly, the player that always seemed so consumed with his image, about how people would perceive him and his place in baseball history, was left with nothing.  There was no saving his accomplishments as a player.  They were forever tainted under the suspicion of what was the truth and what we weren’t being told.

In many ways, it may have saved him as a person.  The pressure to live up to this image of who Alex Rodriguez should be was gone, ruined by Rodriguez himself.  There was nothing left to live up to.  All ARod could do was focus on what was in front of him: baseball.

He went a bit further, though.  ARod used his notoriety, his high profile mistakes, and he made an example of himself to children. Alex went to numerous speaking engagements where he spoke with kids about steroids and the negative impact it can have on their bodies.  He did this without fanfare, without cameras, without the spotlight that he hunted down for so much of his career.  He did it because it was the right thing to do.

That may not be enough to make some people forgive ARod or even like him.  That’s understandable.  But give him credit, if not for putting the Yankees on his back for most of the playoffs, then for turning what was a terrible mistake into a reason to reevaluate himself both as a person and as a player.  We all make mistakes.  Not everyone has to face a press conference when they make one.  Even less come out better for it.

–

I’ve given Joe Girardi a lot of guff this season about some of his decisions and I stand by it.

The easy thing to say right now is that Girardi’s decisions must have been right because the Yankees won the World Series.

I don’t think that’s the case.

Instead, I think Girardi’s 2009 season serves as a lesson into exactly how much impact a manager has on a team both on the field and off.  I don’t doubt that Girardi contributed to the atmosphere in the Yankees clubhouse.  Numerous people on the Yankees have commented that his efforts to bring this team together on a personal level during spring training set the groundwork for a tight knit groups of guys.  I can understand that and I think it’s important.  Nobody likes to go to work everyday in a place they’re not happy in.  Many will tell you that was Joe Torre’s strongest trait while manager of the Yankees.

But let’s be realistic about the team the Yankees put on the field before we start christening Girardi a tactical genius: there is little management that is needed with this Yankee lineup and rotation.  The lineup card can fill itself out.

Girardi’s biggest responsibility is the bullpen and that was a mishmash of AAA relievers for a good part of the season.  If Phil Hughes had opted to return to Scranton to get more starts rather than fill out the bullpen, Girardi would have had an even tougher time over the summer cobbling together his late innings.

It all comes down to performance and the Yankees have the talent and the depth to perform despite many of their manager’s mistakes.  I can only hope that Girardi is open-minded about the criticism he has received this year and takes a long hard look at his performance this season.