Unless I missed something — and this involved a lot of control-tabbing and mental arithmetic in the middle of the night, so perhaps don’t hold me to it too closely — this will be the first “real” playoff series in the AHL since 1999-2000 in which both teams had a negative goal differential in regulation time.
That’s, coincidentally, the first full year of four-on-four overtime in the AHL (and thus one year before I planned to stop doing the arithmetic and just check the real goal differentials). A more proximate cause, though, is that there were just 19 teams that year, 16 of them made the playoffs, and seven of those 16 allowed more regulation-time goals than they scored, and four of them were MATCHED UP in the first round: Lowell (minus-11) beat Saint John (-16), Providence (-37) beat Quebec (-9), and then Providence beat Lowell.
(I say “real” series because it happened five times during the three seasons in which 10 teams made the playoffs in each conference, 2001-02 through 2003-04. Those dinky qualifying-round best-of-3s often involved negative-differential teams, naturally.)
We mentioned it when Hershey showed up on the long winning streak: This has all happened for the Bears with a wonky-looking goal-differential line. They were minus-33 at their low point; they finished minus-4, and minus-6 in regulation. Even now: They are 28-5-4-2 in the past 39 games, a ridiculous run… and in regulation time, they’ve outscored opponents by a total of 27 goals. If you figure their pythagorean expected winning percentage off their regulation-time goals in this stretch, then add back in the overtime wins, it comes out to an expected 58 points. They got 62.
Now, Bridgeport’s not that much better. (Obviously: negative goal differential.) One more time, overtime helped prop up the Sound Tigers. Without further ado… with overtime and shootout goals removed from the mix… The Real Standings. (Warning: Teams playing under different rules with different rewards will play the game a different way. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult your doctor.)
| ATLANTIC | GA | |||||
| y-Charlotte | 42 | 17 | 17 | 101 | 246 | 181 |
| *x-Hershey | 33 | 25 | 18 | 84 | 201 | 207 |
| *x-Bridgeport | 28 | 24 | 24 | 80 | 218 | 219 |
| *x-Springfield | 30 | 29 | 17 | 77 | 247 | 227 |
| *Providence | 28 | 27 | 21 | 77 | 218 | 201 |
| *Lehigh Valley | 27 | 30 | 19 | 73 | 228 | 237 |
| *WB/Scranton | 24 | 30 | 22 | 70 | 220 | 218 |
| Hartford | 20 | 36 | 20 | 60 | 200 | 255 |
| NORTH | GA | |||||
| y-Syracuse | 39 | 21 | 16 | 94 | 256 | 179 |
| x-Rochester | 36 | 23 | 17 | 89 | 244 | 211 |
| x-Toronto | 26 | 24 | 26 | 78 | 235 | 230 |
| x-Cleveland | 26 | 29 | 21 | 73 | 221 | 224 |
| Belleville | 26 | 31 | 19 | 71 | 217 | 220 |
| Utica | 27 | 34 | 15 | 69 | 217 | 249 |
| Laval | 22 | 34 | 20 | 64 | 187 | 219 |
| Binghamton | 21 | 41 | 14 | 56 | 194 | 271 |
| CENTRAL | GA | |||||
| y-Chicago | 36 | 22 | 18 | 90 | 242 | 189 |
| x-Milwaukee | 27 | 24 | 25 | 79 | 208 | 191 |
| *x-Texas | 33 | 31 | 12 | 78 | 234 | 223 |
| x-Grand Rapids | 27 | 27 | 22 | 76 | 206 | 211 |
| Manitoba | 29 | 30 | 17 | 75 | 187 | 212 |
| *Iowa | 25 | 26 | 25 | 75 | 230 | 217 |
| Rockford | 19 | 31 | 26 | 64 | 168 | 204 |
| San Antonio | 24 | 38 | 14 | 62 | 189 | 237 |
| PACIFIC | GA | |||||
| y-Bakersfield | 35 | 21 | 12 | 82 | 235 | 177 |
| x-San Jose | 32 | 22 | 14 | 78 | 220 | 190 |
| x-San Diego | 31 | 24 | 13 | 75 | 234 | 213 |
| *x-Tucson | 27 | 26 | 15 | 69 | 199 | 194 |
| *Colorado | 24 | 27 | 17 | 65 | 179 | 200 |
| Stockton | 24 | 31 | 13 | 61 | 228 | 246 |
| Ontario | 19 | 33 | 16 | 54 | 207 | 264 |
*-change from actual real standings
As always, goal differential is destiny… except when it’s not. Yeah, Springfield went 3-14 in overtime. Texas was 4-8.
Meanwhile, Charlotte this year, as above: 42-17-17 in regulation time, 101 points. That amazing Toronto team three years ago? 41-16-19, 101 points. (Hershey in 2009-10? 54-17-9, 117 points. Yeesh.) (Bridgeport that year: 22-32-26. Yeesh, again.)