The balance sheet: Barack Obama’s top ten political assets, liabilities

The balance sheet on Barack Obama stands at zero right now. The country is evenly divided about his performance as president. And he’s tied in the polls with Republican Mitt Romney.

“It’s a neck-and-neck race,” said Rick Snyder, Michigan Republican governor, in an opinion widely shared across the political spectrum.

Let’s take a look at the Democratic incumbent’s assets as he heads into his party’s national convention in Charlotte this week — and his liabilities.

Which way do you think the ledger of public opinion will eventually tip?

ASSETS

1. Most Americans still like him.

Although the president’s personal approval rating has slipped from 79 percent to 50 percent since he took office, but more Americans have a favorable view of him than an unfavorable one (44 percent), according to the Washington Post/ABC News poll. Romney’s likability level is dangerously deficient, particularly among swing voters. The NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll found that only 16 percent of undecided voters have a favorable view of the Republican nominee.

2. His oratorical skills are superior to his opponents.

Obama is a more fluid communicator than Mitt Romney. He is a better orator before big crowds, he connects better with people in small groups and he comes across better on television.

3. The Electoral College gives the Democrats a built-in edge in the presidential contest.

Texas is the only large state ruled by Republicans. President Obama has an Electoral College cushion because he can count on Democratic dominance in most of the nation’s Electoral Vote-rich states (California, New York, Illinois and Pennsylvania). Romney can’t afford to lose more than one of the three competitive big states: Florida, Ohio and Michigan. If Obama can win North Carolina, it becomes almost impossible for Romney to reach the magic number of 270 electoral votes.

4. Mitt Romney is a flawed candidate running a flawed campaign.

With all of President Obama’s weaknesses, Mitt Romney has not been able to open a lead. One example of his strategic missteps: His international trip to Israel, Poland and England was an off-message debacle, with self-inflicted wounds at almost every stop. Romney’s unforced errors have helped Obama to remain in contention. “In almost every dimension, the Obama campaign is crisper, sharper, more thought-through,” said Charlie Cook, publisher of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. “The Romney campaign is more tactical.”

5. Osama bin Laden is dead.

His decision to authorize the raid that killed Osama bin Laden was a gutsy gamble that has largely neutralized terrorism as a partisan issue. It also helps Democrats counter Republican arguments that the president is a failure. Fifty-eight percent of Americans approve of Obama’s handling of terrorism — the highest total he receives for any issue.

6. He has notched some significant foreign policy successes.

The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq went smoothly and the tenuous democracy has held. And there have been no disasters in Afghanistan as the American presence winds down there. A sign of Obama’s strength: In the key swing state of North Carolina, a hawkish state on military issues, likely voters said Obama would be better than Romney on foreign policy, 47 percent to 41 percent.

7. He had no primary election challenge, so he’s been able to focus on the general election all year long.

Every incumbent president since Herbert Hoover who has lost a re-election race has faced a primary challenge (Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter, George H.W. Bush). President Obama was able to escape a Democratic primary contest. While Mitt Romney was trying to fend off serial challenges from Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum, the Obama campaign team was positioning itself for the general election and taking aim (from the beginning) at Romney, the man they expected to emerge as the GOP nominee. “The Obama team got the jump over the Romney team at defining Romney and it left Romney on the defensive,” said Harvard University political analyst David Gergen, who worked for four presidents from Nixon to Clinton.

8. He can harness the power of incumbency.

The day after Mitt Romney delivered his acceptance speech in Tampa, President Obama was live on national television in front of a crowd of applauding Army personnel at Fort Bliss. The incumbent always has the advantage of looking presidential. If used well — and Obama has frequently used it well — it can make a difference in a tight race.

9. His support for the DREAM Act and executive actions to limit deportations have increased support in the Latino community.

Hispanic voters will be pivotal in Nevada, New Mexico and Virginia, and could be important in North Carolina, Michigan and Pennsylvania, if those states are close. The president’s election-year initiatives — and strong attacks on illegal immigrants by prominent Republicans — have increased the intensity of Latino support for the incumbent. Romney’s Latino support — about 25 percent in several recent polls — is far below the levels garnered by John McCain (32 percent) and George W. Bush (estimated between 39 percent and 44 percent).

10. Thank goodness for Clint Eastwood and Todd Akin.

Romney is running as an unthreatening, mainstream conservative. But unscripted moments have caused Republicans heartburn. The “legitimate rape” gaffe by Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin reminded centrists and independents about the extreme positions held by some of Romney’s fellow Republicans.

LIABILITIES

1. The economy is still weak.

Franklin D. Roosevelt is the only president of the past century to win re-election with a jobless rate as high as 8 percent. The computer models that predict presidential election results based on economic statistics project Obama losing with 45 percent of the vote. Of course, computers can be wrong and history is always writing a new chapter, but there’s no doubt that the economy presents serious challenges to Obama’s re-election effort.

2. Voters do not believe the president has done a good job managing the economy.

Only 36 percent of Americans approve of the way Obama has handled the economy, according to the most recent Gallup poll. Romney maintains a slight edge when voters are asked which candidate would they trust more on economic matters — despite months of Democratic attacks on his business record and budget priorities.

3. Most Americans are angry and/or upset by the record federal deficits and the explosive growth in the national debt during the Obama presidency.

The president’s lowest rating on any issue is the budget deficit. Just 30 percent of voters approve of Obama’s handling of the federal budget. Even a substantial portion of Obama supporters have reservations about his economic stewardship of the nation. And Obama’s five-year budget projects offer little relief in the red ink. The Democrats’ only hope is to convince voters that the deficit would increase even more under the proposed Romney-Ryan tax cuts.

4. People believe the country is headed in the wrong direction — still — and want change.

The month Barack Obama was elected president, 15 percent of Americans said the country was headed in the right direction, according to the CBS News poll. Today, 31 percent have the same feeling. That’s marginally better. Still, two-thirds of voters feel that the nation is on the wrong track. That’s never good for an incumbent.

5. The anti-Washington sentiment at the grassroots level remains strong and may be growing stronger.

The Tea Party movement has furnished ample evidence that anti-Washington sentiment can become a powerful organizing force at the grassroots level. The approval rate for Congress has dropped below 10 percent. Washington is more unpopular than ever. There’s no way that Barack Obama can alter this reality: He is the candidate who lives in Washington and Mitt Romney is the candidate who has never lived in Washington.

6. The health-reform law often called “Obamacare” has more passionate opponents than supporters.

If the critics of ObamaCare needed any more motivation to show up at the polls, the Supreme Court gave it to them. Now, the only way to rid the country of the Democratic health-reform law is to defeat the Democratic president. Americans oppose the law, 54 percent to 38 percent. But among those with strong feelings on the issue, foes outnumber fans by 2-to-1.

7. There is disappointment among some 2008 Obama supporters that his pledges of “hope and change” have been replaced by hyperpartisanship and gridlock.

8. The president’s opponents are committed to voting than his supporters are.

With two months to go before Election Day, Republicans are clearly more charged up: 51 percent of GOP voters say they are more enthusiastic than usual to cast votes this November, compared to 39 percent of Democrats. Four years ago, 62 percent of Democrats were more motivated than usual. Two key pro-Obama voting blocs are suffering enthusiasm gaps: young voters and Latinos.

9. Solyndra has raised questions about “crony capitalism” and political favoritism inside the White House.

The Obama White House has faced fewer ethics scandals than most recent administrations. But the one exception is a big one. Solyndra, the California alternative energy company that went bankrupt after being propped up with questionable loans from the Obama administration, has become an easy-to-understand example of how political contributions can influence government policy. For the Obama re-election team, there’s no silver lining in this ethical cloud.

10. Joe Biden is a human gaffe machine.

Vice President Joe Biden has had his mouth chained shut (figuratively speaking) after his most recent embarrassing statement, when he told a largely African American audience that Mitt Romney’s policies would put “y’all back in chains.” No less a pundit that Sarah Palin declared on Fox News that her former vice presidential rival “really drags down that ticket.” That may be a bit of political hyperbole, but Biden’s unexpected, unscripted cringe-worthy moments definitely don’t help.

Richard Dunham