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SEN 2012: Boughton loses easily to Dems in senate matchup

Cross post from HatCityBLOG

Daily Kos:

Fifth CD Rep. Chris Murphy holds a narrow lead over Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz in the Democratic primary—which won’t be held for more than a year, and which could feature additional candidates (a few other people are poking their noses around the race). Murphy has a nine-point lead with men, but Bysiewicz’s advantage with women is just three points. She does win African Americans by a large margin, but they only make up 11% of the primary electorate in our sample. The biggest difference between the candidates is in their favorables: Murphy scores an impressive 51-14 among Democrats, while Bysiewicz is at 45-27.

Even though no Republicans have officially declared their candidacies yet, we tested the general election (registered voters) as well:

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 44
Mark Boughton (R): 34
Undecided: 22

Chris Murphy (D): 52
Mark Boughton (R): 29
Undecided: 19

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45
Michael Fedele (R): 35
Undecided: 20

Chris Murphy (D): 51
Michael Fedele (R): 29
Undecided: 20

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 45
Scott Frantz (R): 30
Undecided: 24

Chris Murphy (D): 51
Scott Frantz (R): 27
Undecided: 22

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 50
Linda McMahon (R): 39
Undecided: 12

Chris Murphy (D): 54
Linda McMahon (R): 38
Undecided: 9

Susan Bysiewicz (D): 42
Rob Simmons (R): 39
Undecided: 19

Chris Murphy (D): 49
Rob Simmons (R): 34
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±3.4%)

If I were Susan Bysiewicz, I’d be pretty pleased with these numbers—even the most popular Republicans can’t crawl their way into the 40s. But if I were Chris Murphy, I’d be even more stoked, and it’s not hard to see why: He crushes the nobodies by twenty-plus-point margins, bodyslams Linda McMahon by sixteen and hold even the semi-popular Rob Simmons to a fifteen point spread. Again, the difference lies in the favorables: Statewide, all voters like Murphy by a 40-27 spread. Bysiewicz, on the other hand, is under water at 31-41. It’s a testament to how weak Republicans are in Connecticut that they do so poorly against her, with only Simmons making the race even appear to be competitive.

Although most people polled responded “Boughton who?” when asked for their opinion of our mayor, most who knew Mark didn’t have anything good to say about him.


Click here to view the entire poll (Public Policy Polling, 400 Registered Voters, MoE 4.9%, Mar 17, 2011 – Mar 20, 2011).