Dumb fact that got me thinking on the way home (and later tweeted about): Given the longshots who have won the Belmont lately, what would happen if you just bet $2 to win on every horse that goes off at 20-1 or longer?
Since 1999, there have been five such winners: Ruler On Ice today, Da’Tara in 2008, Birdstone in 2004, Sarava in 2002 and Lemon Drop Kid in 1999. They paid a combined $408.50, led of course by Sarava’s insane $142.50*. There have been 38 horses to go off at those odds, so it’d cost you $76.
Since 1999, you’d be up $332.50.
Now, in the previous 18 runnings, you’d be out $142. But then again, if you had started the year before that, you’d have hit on Temperance Hill for $108.80 on $8 worth of bets, so maybe you’d keep it up. (Didn’t go further back. Exercise for the reader.)
Speaking of Twitter, if you follow me there and have no interest whatsoever in high school sports… thanks for your patience. It’s over.
*-That superfecta (.pdf) would keep you busy awhile, no?